According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7420.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7550.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.75%. The current price has dropped by 18.16% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate increased in November. From the above chart, it can be seen that last month’s potassium carbonate market was mainly dominated by single orders, but this month’s market rebounded, rising for four consecutive weeks. The raw material potassium chloride fluctuated and rose, with good cost support. Potassium carbonate followed the rise in cost and the market continued to rise. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate is around 7300-7500 yuan/ton recently (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall trend of potassium chloride market in November was fluctuating and rising. As of the end of the month. The self pickup price of 62% Russian white potassium in border trade is around 2900 yuan/ton. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have increased, creating a favorable market atmosphere. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

At present, the domestic potassium chloride market is on the rise, with good cost support. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to be wait-and-see.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of November 28th, the average price of PMMA for general transparent grade premium products in China was 14566.67 yuan/ton. PMMA prices were mainly weak in October, with an overall decrease of 0.23% in November. Currently, prices remain around 14600 yuan/ton, with downstream rigid demand procurement being the main focus. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the negotiation atmosphere is flat.

In November, the price of PMMA, a commonly used transparent premium product in China, remained stable and weak, with a 0.23% decrease in price compared to the same period last month. The market negotiation atmosphere was average, and downstream demand was insufficient, with on-demand procurement as the main focus and weak willingness to stock up. Currently, the mainstream manufacturer’s quotation range is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Manufacturers are offering discounts and taking orders, while downstream suppliers are in urgent need of procurement, Enterprise quotation: Shanghai Hongqi Plasticization Technology Co., Ltd. 14800 yuan/ton.

Rubber Index: On November 27th, the rubber index was 668 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 36.98% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 26.52% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society PMMA analysts believe that in the short term, PMMA will mainly maintain stable operation, with mainstream prices maintained at around 14600 yuan/ton.

This week, the lead market (11.17-11.24) fluctuated downward, with the average price in the domestic market at 16665 yuan/ton last weekend and 16365 yuan/ton this weekend, a decrease of 1.8%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall. The recent market trend has been strong, with the lead ingot market rising for 10 consecutive weeks before entering October and experiencing mixed gains and losses.

In terms of the futures market, the Shanghai lead market experienced a broad decline this week, with long funds leaving the market. The overall lead price fell from a high level, and LME lead ingot inventories continued to rise, putting pressure on lead prices. From the perspective of supply and demand, the operating rate of primary lead has slightly increased this week, indicating an expected increase in primary lead supply. The price of waste batteries in the field of recycled lead remains high, affecting the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises for recycling. Currently, the operating rate of recycled lead enterprises has significantly declined. The price of recycling used batteries has risen to a nearly 5-year high, and it is difficult for the market price to fall in the short term. Therefore, the market expects that the supply of recycled lead in the near future will be tight and difficult to change. In terms of demand, the downstream industry has shown a more obvious performance in the off-season, while the demand for batteries is relatively stable. The demand for electric bicycles continues to decline, and overall demand remains weak. With the continuous rise of spot prices, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market has further decreased. Recently, the overall market trading has been relatively light, mainly focusing on long-term cooperative orders. Overall, with the departure of bulls, the recent trend of lead prices has returned to the fundamentals, and it is expected that the industry will continue to maintain a weak trend in the off-season.

On November 26th, the non-ferrous index was at 1090 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.13% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.57% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 47th week of 2023 (11.20-11.24), there were a total of 6 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were dysprosium oxide (4.17%), dysprosium metal (3.06%), and dysprosium ferroalloy (3.04%). There are a total of 13 products that have experienced a month on month decline, with nickel (-4.28%), cobalt (-3.87%), and tin (-3.49%) being the top three products with the largest decline. The average increase and decrease this week is -0.84%.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price in Shandong from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 836 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.72% compared to the same period last year. On November 23, the chlor alkali index was 1047 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 50.80% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 47.05% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic caustic soda prices have remained stable this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 780-850 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 830-950 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. This week, the overall price of caustic soda has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and the production of caustic soda has increased slightly. Downstream purchases are still more on demand, and the purchasing enthusiasm is average.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 46th week of 2023 (11.13-11.17), there were a total of 3 products that rose, 1 product that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include: light soda ash (2.38%), baking soda (0.58%), and caustic soda flakes (0.09%); The main commodities falling are PVC (-0.41%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.38%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week, with an increase in caustic soda production. Downstream alumina will be replenished as needed in the near future, and it is expected that caustic soda will continue to consolidate and operate in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has slightly declined this week. As of the 23rd, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11116.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% compared to the price of 11183.33 yuan/ton on the 17th, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.91%.

Supply side: The domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined this week, with the mainstream price discussed in various regions of the country ranging from 11100 to 11500 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices have been shut down for sale, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation for hydrofluoric acid from manufacturers is normal, with anhydrous hydrofluoric acid starting at around 60%. Some manufacturers have inventory backlog, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly decreased.

Cost side: The price trend of domestic fluorite is stable. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3700 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of the week’s price of 3700 yuan/ton. The current situation of the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is the tension in upstream mining, with some areas experiencing mining accidents. Fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are undergoing safety hazard inspections, The difficulty of starting a fluorite mine has increased. With the decrease of temperature and the increase of rain and snow weather in the northern region, fluorite production is limited. However, there has been strong resistance towards high priced fluorite in the downstream recently, and the procurement situation is average. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is low.

This week, the price trend of sulfuric acid market is temporarily stable. As of the 23rd, the average price of domestic sulfuric acid is 298 yuan/ton. The upstream sulfur market of sulfuric acid is on the rise, and there is a certain increase in costs. Downstream customers of sulfuric acid have a general enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid, and the price trend of sulfuric acid has remained stable this week. However, the decline in the domestic hydrofluoric acid market is not significant due to this impact.

On the demand side: The market trend of refrigerant products downstream of the terminal is temporarily stable, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. The procurement of raw materials is not active, and the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high. Downstream procurement just needs to follow up, and some enterprises’ quotas are digested in advance. The monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small, and the price trend of R22 is mainly declining. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, but the actual high-end offers have fallen, and the purchasing atmosphere has cooled. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 26000-28000 yuan/ton. The demand in the refrigerant industry during the off-season is insufficient, and transactions are relatively flat. The refrigerant industry has maintained a sluggish start, and demand is poor, making it difficult for the hydrofluoric acid market to improve.

Future forecast: The market trend of upstream raw material fluorite is stable in the near future, and the price of sulfuric acid may rise; The market operating rate of the downstream refrigerant industry remains at a low level, and there is a lack of enthusiasm for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. In the short term, hydrofluoric acid prices remain low and volatile.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mixed xylene market weakened this week (11.13-11.21). On November 21st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.79% from last Monday’s 7250 yuan/ton.

Asia US Arbitrage Space Narrows, Xylene External Market Price Decreases

Since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the Asia US interest rate gap has severely shrunk, and the prices of toluene in Asia have stabilized at low levels. As of November 21, the prices of isomeric grade xylene in Asia were between $873 and $874 per ton.

Port inventory increases, xylene supply pressure increases

The inventory of mixed xylene ports has increased compared to the previous period, putting pressure on the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of November 16th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China was 26000 tons, a significant increase from 19500 tons in mid November.

Low international crude oil price consolidation, weak cost support for xylene

This week (11.13-11.21), international crude oil prices have generally stabilized at a low level, with weak support for xylene costs. As of November 21, the WTI01 contract closed at $77.81 per barrel, with a settlement of 77.77 yuan per barrel; The Brent 01 contract closed at $82.51 per barrel and settled at $82.48 per barrel.

PX starts to stabilize xylene and obtain just needed support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, there has been little change in spot supply during the maintenance of some xylene units. Recently, the trend of international crude oil prices has declined, and PX external prices have been affected by this. As of the 16th, the closing prices in Asia were 997 999 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1022 1024 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Weak market for phthalic anhydride, weak demand support for xylene

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride units is stable, with normal shipments of ortho phthalic anhydride starting from Tongling, Anhui. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride unit of Xinyang Group is operating stably, and Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride is operating normally. Currently, the operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride is maintaining over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has fallen, which has correspondingly impacted the ortho phthalic anhydride market. Recently, downstream procurement has not been active, Some manufacturers of phthalic anhydride have lowered their factory prices, resulting in a sluggish market for phthalic anhydride.

Small fluctuations in the domestic mixed blending market, weak support for xylene demand

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a low season, and downstream inquiries have been light. The demand for xylene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of November 16th, around 70% of refineries nationwide have started operating; The gasoline production of independent refineries has slightly decreased by 3000 tons compared to the previous period.

Future forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices have been consolidating at a low level in the near future, and the cost of xylene is at a low level; Downstream mixing and other industries have weak demand, coupled with a slight increase in xylene port inventory, and it is expected that the xylene market will experience a weak consolidation in the short term

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China was 2900.00 yuan/ton, and the weekend price fell by 21.27% year-on-year. On November 19, the calcium carbide commodity index was 75.98, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 64.20% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 36.93% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

The upstream blue charcoal market has stabilized at a low level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly declined. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal intermediate was around 1230-1300 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in price and weakened cost support. The PVC market price slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5856.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5832.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.41%. Weekend prices fell by 3.17% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide has weakened. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

In late November, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, downstream demand has weakened, and the price of raw material blue charcoal has slightly decreased, resulting in insufficient cost support. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in late November, with consolidation being the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1186.67 yuan/ton, while at the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1183.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28%. The current price has decreased by 12.35% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and declined. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past two months, with a decline this week. As of November 17th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1100-1260 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and consolidated, with average cost support. Formaldehyde manufacturers actively shipped, but the market trading atmosphere was relatively cold and the market declined.

Upstream methanol situation: In terms of supply, global coal supply is stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support the operation of coal prices at high levels; In terms of demand, the overall pressure on inventory in power plants is relatively low. Currently, the terminal mainly relies on long-term replenishment and replenishment according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is biased towards wait-and-see. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors. Downstream demand is expected to increase, but fundamental contradictions are still not significant. The domestic methanol market is mainly fluctuating and consolidating.

The recent weak consolidation of methanol market, poor cost support, and high pressure on formaldehyde inventory are likely to follow the trend. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 16th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3400 yuan/ton, which was unchanged compared to Monday’s price and increased by 25.15% compared to the same period last year.

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been operating steadily, with holders shipping according to the market. On November 16th, the quotation range for industrial grade 85% formic acid was between 3100-3500 yuan/ton. Recently, the upstream sulfuric acid market prices have been operating steadily, while the upstream methanol market has experienced slight fluctuations. The cost side changes have little impact on the formic acid market. Enterprises mainly ship goods, while downstream inquiries and procurement remain in demand. The overall market trading changes are limited.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that currently, the upstream sulfuric acid price is temporarily stable, while the upstream methanol is operating in a narrow range with limited cost impact. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, rubber, leather, and pesticides are mainly in need of procurement, and the market atmosphere is average. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may stabilize and operate in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of November 15th, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 7433.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% compared to the same period last week, with a narrow range and weak operation. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, with manufacturers mainly selling out profits and taking orders.

The market price of cyclohexane has slightly declined, with the mainstream price around 7433.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% compared to the same period last week. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains around 7500 yuan/ton, and downstream procurement is on demand, with weak willingness to stock, average demand, and weak upstream support.

Chemical Index: On November 14th, the chemical index stood at 862 points, an increase of 1 point compared to yesterday, a decrease of 38.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the stable operation of the cyclohexane market is the main trend, with a narrow range and weak operation.