On May 30, the mainstream quotation range of 1\tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 270000-276000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 273000 yuan / ton, up 11500 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

The strength of the futures market in early trading on the 30th led to the upward movement of the spot market of tin ingots. Negotiations in the high market were rather cold. Today, the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood. From the basic point of view, the supply at the mine end is relatively loose, the domestic refineries are operating smoothly, and the supply of tin ingots is relatively normal. With the resumption of work and production plan in many places in the downstream electronics industry, there are signs of recovery in recent construction. The market expects that there will be a certain demand for tin ingots in the future. Today, the tin price hit the bottom and rebounded. On the whole, the liberalization of tin demand is limited, and the support for tin demand is limited. Therefore, it is expected that in the short term, tin prices will maintain a strong trend of volatility, with a limited overall increase.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan was stable this week. On May 27, the average market price in Henan was 7600 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price at the beginning of the week, with a month on month decrease of 0.65%.

quotations analysis

This week, the cryolite market is mainly on the sidelines. The quotations of the main enterprises in Henan remain unchanged throughout the week. At present, the raw material prices are high, the superimposed coal and natural gas fuel costs are high, and the manufacturers’ production costs are under great pressure. Most enterprises’ cryolite devices operate at low load, with less output and inventory. The market quotation is high, the downstream procurement demand is stable, and the enterprise shipments are smooth. In general, the market supply and demand are relatively balanced, The operators hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the market. As of May 27, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong was 8000 yuan / ton, and that in Henan was 7000-8600 yuan / ton, with the interval price unchanged.

The upstream soda ash rose at a high level. As of May 27, the average market price was about 2850 yuan / ton, and the price rose by 2.15% in the week. The soda ash market was running steadily this week. Downstream purchases were mainly on demand, and the manufacturers were resistant to high priced soda ash. The manufacturers delivered flexibly, and the overall trading was stable. In the future, the downstream demand was specifically concerned.

Downstream, the aluminum market was weak and downward this week. On May 27, the aluminum price was about 20503.33 yuan / ton, down 1.65% during the week. In the off-season of the terminal industry, the downstream demand is general, the social inventory of aluminum is accumulated, and there are few good news in the market. The aluminum market is down. In the short term, the market is still weak.

Aftermarket forecast

The cost of domestic cryolite manufacturers is high. Cryolite devices are mainly operated at low load. The market supply is tight, the downstream purchase demand is stable, the market trading atmosphere is mild, and the operators’ mentality is optimistic, which supports the high level of cryolite market. It is expected that the trend of cryolite will continue to operate at a high level in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic carbon black quotation was 10375 yuan / ton on May 26.

Today, on the cost side of carbon black, the regional performance of domestic high-temperature coal tar market is different. On the whole, the procurement enthusiasm has decreased significantly, and the auction price of new orders in some areas has been corrected. On the demand side, the domestic demand in the downstream is average. Although the tire industry gradually recovered in May, there is still a gap compared with the normal situation. The overall operating load of the industry is low, the shipment of tire manufacturers is slow, and the tire inventory is high. Under the background that the comprehensive cost of carbon black enterprises continues to rise this year and the price generally rises, downstream operators are cautious in carbon black procurement.

At present, the cost of domestic carbon black is still high, the demand is low and the inventory is increased. At present, there is a risk of falling carbon black price. The future trend depends on the downstream demand.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic nitrile rubber was 22800 yuan / ton on the 25th, down 1.83% from the previous day. The operating rate of nitrile rubber in China is close to 80%, and the supply surface is relatively sufficient. The start-up of downstream insulation foaming, rubber hose and other industries is as low as 50 ~ 60%, and the purchase of nitrile rubber is mostly on demand, and there is resistance to high price nitrile. Since May, the ex factory price of nitrile rubber enterprises has been adjusted downward by 500 ~ 800 yuan / ton. Some enterprises offer preferential treatment to old customers, and the market offer of nitrile rubber decreased slightly. As of May 25, the mainstream market price of Lanhua nitrile n41e was 22500 ~ 23000 yuan / ton; Shunze nitrile 3355 market mainstream reported 21800 yuan / ton; The mainstream report of Russian nitrile 2665 market is 22000 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: the downstream start-up is low and the supply is loose. It is expected that the nitrile rubber market will continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the market price of 1# antimony ingots in East China was 80000 yuan / ton on May 24, unchanged from the previous trading day.

On the 24th, the price of antimony ingots was temporarily stable. At present, the transportation and production situation in various places still has a certain impact. The enthusiasm of downstream procurement is low, and antimony oxide manufacturers purchase at a lower price. At present, the overall commencement is still low, and the demand for antimony ingots has slowed down. Most of them maintain on-demand procurement, affecting the demand and market mentality of antimony ingots. Under the influence of the weak overall trading in the upstream and downstream, it is expected that the antimony ingot Market will remain stable and weak in the short term, and the price will continue to be adjusted slightly.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As shown in the figure above, the price of antimony ingots continued to rise after the Spring Festival, and entered the downward channel after holding steady. Recently, the price has been weak and consolidated.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (May 23): 11160 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on May 23, the market price of phosphoric acid was 11160 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day. Recently, due to the rising price of yellow phosphorus as raw material, the support of cost side has been strengthened, the overall focus of phosphoric acid market has shifted upward, and the increase range of enterprise offer is different. At present, the price of raw yellow phosphorus is as high as 40000 yuan / ton, and the market price of thermal phosphoric acid is about 10600-12800 yuan / ton.

It is expected that the focus of phosphoric acid market will move upward in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this week, and the price fell from 5366.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 5300.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1.24%. The ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride rose this week. This week, the ex factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes increased from 3500 yuan / ton last weekend to 3980.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 13.71%. On May 20, the commodity index of potassium chloride (import) was 139.47, down 1.76 points from yesterday, down 1.25% from the highest point of 141.23 points in the cycle (2022-05-19), and up 44.21% from the lowest point of 96.71 points on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly this week: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was about 3980 yuan / ton, an increase of 480 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Xiangyang youdeshi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe offered 5300 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, down 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 5300-5400 yuan / ton. The price of Dahong granules is about 60-5200 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4900-5000 yuan / ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate increased slightly this week, from 9500.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 9550.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.53%, an increase of 42.11% over the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate rose slightly this week, from 7350.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 7383.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.45%, up 64.07% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride rose slightly, and the downstream customers have better demand for potassium chloride.

3、 Future forecast

In late May, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been adjusted at a high level, but the market supply is still limited and the supply is relatively tight. The downstream market of potassium chloride rose slightly, the downstream demand is good, and the just need to purchase is mainly. The international price of potash fertilizer is adjusted at a high level, and the domestic potash fertilizer is still likely to rise. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may rise slightly in the short term.

On May 19, 2022, the price of domestic crude benzene was 7065 yuan / ton, up 2.38% from the previous trading day.

On May 17, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $112.40/barrel, down US $1.80 or 1.6%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $111.93/barrel, down US $2.31 or 2.0%. Oil prices closed lower for the first time after four consecutive rises, mainly due to the hawkish remarks of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the expectation of substantial interest rate hike. In addition, there was news that the United States would relax restrictions on oil producing Venezuela, and oil prices fell.

Recently, the overall price of crude oil has risen, and the price of pure benzene in Asia has continued to rise, driving the price of domestic pure benzene to rise. The low inventory of ports in East China has once again boosted the market mentality, and the short-term bullish mentality has not decreased. At present, the price of domestic pure benzene is 8850-9250 yuan / ton. The upward price of the industrial chain boosted the mentality of crude benzene enterprises. This week, the bidding price opened higher and went higher, mainly upward.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 3502 yuan / ton on May 18, unchanged from the day before yesterday.

Coking coal prices are weak. In terms of origin, most coal mines maintain normal production, but the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, the enthusiasm for procurement is reduced, and some coal shipments are under pressure; In terms of downstream coke prices, the profits of coke enterprises continue to tighten, the pace of raw coal procurement slows down, market pessimism lingers, and most of them purchase on demand. Generally speaking, the price may be weak, and the consolidation and operation is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

The coke market is running stably for the time being today, and the third round of lifting and lowering has been implemented in some areas. At present, the profits of coking enterprises are OK, the construction is active, and the enterprises are actively shipping. The recent profits of downstream steel mills are low, and they still have the mentality of keeping down the price of raw coke. At present, they maintain replenishment on demand. On the whole, the coke supply is loose, the downstream demand is suspended, and the market confidence is declining. It is expected that the coke market will remain stable and weak in the near future. In the follow-up, we will focus on the operating rate of the transportation steel plant and the coke inventory in all links.

On May 17, the rare earth index was 826 points, up 5 points from yesterday, down 17.97% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 204.80% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index rose sharply, and the price trend of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series rose. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide rose by 10000 yuan / ton to 925000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal rose by 20000 yuan / ton to 1125000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide rose by 10000 yuan / ton to 930000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide rose by 5000 yuan / ton to 940000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium was 1205000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium was 1140000 yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.64 million yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.635 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium is 3.4 million yuan / ton. The price of domestic light rare earth market has increased, and the recent procurement is general. The price of dysprosium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market has increased, while the price of terbium series has continued to rise. The downstream purchase is mainly on demand, and Myanmar prohibits export. It is expected that the price of domestic rare earth market will rise in the later stage.