1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of baking soda has been mainly stable in the near future. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average price of domestic market is 1583.33 yuan / ton. On May 27, the commodity index of sodium bicarbonate was 105.09, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.63% from 121.68 (2020-10-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.06% from 88.27, the lowest point on December 22, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now

2、 Market analysis

According to the news agency, the price of sodium bicarbonate is stable for the time being, and the shipment in the downstream market is acceptable. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan is about 1550-1650 yuan, which is the mainstream quotation in the market. The downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that the price will be slightly consolidated in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 1550-1650 yuan / ton, which is the mainstream price in the market, and the downstream demand is acceptable.

Raw material soda: this week’s Soda price is stable, small move market operation. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend is about 1750 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the soda ash in North China has been in stable operation temporarily. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1800-1900 yuan / ton, and the downstream glass mainly purchases soda ash on demand. Generally speaking, the short-term price of soda ash is mainly consolidated. Soda ash in East China is in stable operation for the time being. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1700-1850 yuan / ton, and the downstream glass mainly purchases soda ash on demand. Generally speaking, the price of short-term soda ash is mainly consolidated.

Demand side: downstream medicine, textile and food mainly purchase sodium bicarbonate on demand, and the price of sodium bicarbonate has been consolidated recently. Analysts of business news agency believe that: in the near future, the overall situation of raw material soda ash is stable with small movements, mainly with narrow fluctuation. The price of downstream glass market rises or drives the demand for soda ash, but there is still a price game between glass market and soda ash, and the short-term situation of soda ash is still consolidation. On the whole, the price of baking soda may still maintain a narrow fluctuation trend in the short term, and the demand of downstream market will be taken into consideration.

Precious metal prices rebounded in May

According to business news agency data, on May 28, the average price of silver market in the morning was 5656.33 yuan / kg, up 6.29% from 5321.67 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (May 1); Compared with the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01), it was 5550 yuan / kg, up 1.92%.

On May 28, the spot price of gold was 385.59 yuan / g, up 5.54% compared with the average price of 369 yuan / g in the early morning of may (5.1); Compared with the spot price of gold at the beginning of the year (01.01), it was 392.70 yuan / g, down 0.83%.

On the 28th, due to the rising yields of US dollar and US Treasury bonds, precious metals were suppressed to a certain extent. The dynamic price of precious metals is weak.

Precious metal prices rebounded in May

In terms of medium and long-term fundamentals, the domestic demand for precious metal gold in April moved down on a month on month basis; The domestic demand for precious metal gold investment moved down on a month on month basis, and the investment heat of precious metal dropped.

According to statistics, the volume of gold out of the Shanghai Gold Exchange in April was 148.4 tons, 19.3 tons less than that in March. In April, the monthly average amount of gold in the past 10 years was about 140 tons.

On the one hand, the profile reflects that the gold middlemen are cautiously optimistic about the sales demand of physical gold in May wedding holidays. On the one hand, it is also based on the fact that the domestic demand for precious metal gold investment moved down in April on a month on month basis, the investment heat of precious metals has cooled down, and the demand for physical hoarding of middlemen is general.

According to the data of Shanghai gold exchange, the trading volume of Au (T + D), the most liquid gold margin trading contract, decreased by 36% compared with March; According to the data of Shanghai Futures Exchange, the trading volume of gold futures on Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 23% compared with March. As of April, China’s gold ETF holdings totaled 7.4 tons (about 4 billion US dollars, 25.1 billion yuan), and it is expected that 2 tons (about 81 million US dollars, 268 million yuan) of gold ETF will flow out in April.

The data for May is yet to be released. It is expected that retail gold consumption will improve significantly and investment demand will also show a positive trend. It is expected that the medium and long-term consolidation of precious metal gold will be strong, and the US inflation data will be concerned in the near future.

Silver consumption expected to improve

In terms of physical consumption, the industrial demand for silver and platinum is expected to grow strongly driven by economic recovery, especially driven by the concept of green and renewable energy.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market rose first and then decreased in May. On the whole, the price trend in May was stable. By the end of the month, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 6500 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 30.98%. The price trend of phthalic anhydride in the middle and late May fell, the spot supply was normal, and the market of phthalic anhydride declined.

In May, the overall price trend of phthalic anhydride market was stable. In the first ten days, the price maintained the rising trend in April. However, the market began to fall in the middle and last ten days. The market situation of phthalic anhydride was general, and the downstream demand was normal in the near future. The price trend of o-benzene rose in May, and the plasticizer market rose slightly, which supported the stable price trend of phthalic anhydride market. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers have little change in operation. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride on site is about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply is normal. The price of phthalic anhydride on site has little change. The market of downstream plasticizer industry began to fall in the last ten days, and the actual transaction situation is general. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market in East China is general, and the high-end transactions in the market are limited. In East China, the mainstream of negotiation on the supply of neighboring France is 6400-6600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of negotiation on the supply of naphthalene method is 6200-6400 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6500-6700 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride market still exists, and the downstream is mainly purchased on demand. Recently, the market trend of downstream DOP has fallen, which has affected the price trend of phthalic anhydride market.

In May, the domestic price of o-benzene rose to 6200 yuan / ton, or 5.08%. The domestic price rise of o-benzene is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the import price of o-benzene in the port area maintains a high level, and the external quotation of o-benzene rises. Recently, the inventory of o-benzene in the port area is high, and the external quotation of o-benzene is stable. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, The price trend of phthalic anhydride market in May was stable.

In May, the market price of the downstream DOP of phthalic anhydride increased. According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic DOP price was 13125 yuan / ton by the end of the month, and the price increased by 5.21% in May. The equipment of DOP enterprises in the yard started normal. With the rise of the price of isooctanol, the cost of DOP increased, and the DOP price rose. DOP enterprises started normal, the spot supply was sufficient, and the momentum of DOP rising in the future was weakened. In the future, the cost of DOP decreased, the operating rate of enterprises increased, the support of DOP rise weakened, and the high price caused too much pressure on the cost of downstream products. The downstream customers were more resistant to high price DOP. The transaction price was based on the real-time price, and the overall DOP price was about 12900-13500 yuan / ton. The DOP market rose in May, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market was temporarily stable.

On the whole, the recent trend of crude oil price is relatively strong. In addition, the downstream plasticizer industry has a downward trend. In addition, the recent trend of o-benzene price is stable. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will decline slightly in the future.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of May 26, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 13900 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day, decreased by 11.46% compared with April 26, and increased by 23.74% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. On the 26th, the market price of epichlorohydrin was mainly stable, downstream users mainly purchased on demand, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market was flat.

As of May 25, the market price of propylene in Shandong remained stable. According to the price chart of the business association, the propylene price in Shandong continued to rise in the first ten days of April, fell sharply in the last ten days, and remained stable at the end of the month. During the May Day period, the first two days continued to be stable. From the 3rd to the 7th, the daily price rose by about 50 yuan / ton. From the 9th, the price was mainly stable. After a small rise on the 13th, the price was stabilized again. From the 17th, the daily price began to decline by 50 yuan / ton. From the 19th to the 20th, the daily price of propylene dropped by about 100 yuan / ton. From the 23rd, the price of propylene rose by 50 yuan / ton. Today, the price was generally stable, The current market turnover is between 8100 ~ 8300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8100 yuan / ton.

As for downstream epoxy resin, as of May 25, the focus of negotiation in East China’s liquid epoxy resin market has shifted downward, and the cost support has weakened. In addition, downstream companies are worried about the future market, so they mainly wait and see, and manufacturers are under pressure to ship. The market mainstream reference price is around 30000-30500 yuan / ton.

According to epichlorohydrin analysts of business news agency, at present, the cost pressure still exists, but the follow-up of the demand side is insufficient, and the market is in a game of supply and demand. It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market may be in a stalemate, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of aniline fell continuously this week. On May 16, the price of aniline in Shandong was 11300-11500 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11700 yuan / ton. On May 21, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10700-11000 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11100 yuan / ton. The average price was 4.08% lower than last week, 2.17% higher than the beginning of the month, 38.82% higher than the beginning of the year, and 141.91% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, crude oil and external market fell in a wide range this week, and external news was bad; The downstream styrene rises and falls, driving the center of gravity of pure benzene downward; The downstream procurement of local refining is general, the pressure of local refining shipment increases, and the price falls. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene remained at 8200 yuan / ton, while the price of local refining was significantly lower than that of Sinopec’s listed price, and the market was waiting for its price guidance. On Sunday (May 23), the price of pure benzene was 7700-8200 yuan / ton (average price was 8080 yuan / ton), and the average price fell 150 yuan / ton or 1.82% compared with last week; It was 133.53% higher than that of the same period last year.

The price of nitric acid fell this week compared with last week. On Friday (May 21), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2250 yuan / ton, up 56.98% compared with the same period last year.

Aniline prices fell this week. The aniline plant in the field is running normally, the downstream demand is generally followed up, and the inventory of the enterprise is accumulated. In addition, the week’s weak cost side, drag aniline market mentality.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, the European pure benzene plant was restarted to ease the tight situation of pure benzene supply in Europe and the United States. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will continue to decline in the later period. However, the short-term tight situation of domestic supply still existed, and the arrival of pure benzene in Hong Kong decreased in the later period, limiting the decline. On the whole, pure benzene is likely to continue to decline next week. Pay attention to Sinopec’s price guidelines. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

The devices in the plant are in normal operation and sufficient supply; There is still room for raw materials to fall, and the cost support is insufficient; The lower reaches may reduce the burden, and the demand for aniline is weak. Overall, aniline still has room to fall. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the follow-up of downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline price.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, this week, the price of DOP fell, and the DOP market fell and stabilized. As of May 24, DOP price was 13300.00 yuan / ton, down 3.10% compared with that of 13.725.00 yuan / ton on May 16 last weekend; It fell 3.97% from the highest point of 13850.00 yuan / ton in May. DOP fell this week and stabilized.

Raw material is not supported

From the trend chart of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride prices, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride have stabilized after the high price drop this week, the cost of DOP raw materials has lost support, and the increasing rising power of the drop pressure of DOP in the future remains.

Market overview and future market expectation

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with DOP data at business news agency, said raw material prices fell this week, DOP costs lost support and DOP prices fell. In the early stage, the price of isooctanol was high, which led to the decline of the start of DOP plant, the supply of DOP market was tight, and some factories were in line with delivery. With the price of isooctanol falling sharply, the price of DOP followed the decline, the end-user purchasing intention decreased, and downstream customers delayed the purchase. The customers who just needed to purchase were delayed from the beginning of the week (May 17) to about Friday, The short-term purchase increase supported a small rebound in DOP price. However, in the long run, octanol maintenance unit was restored to production, and the output was expected to increase. While the demand of downstream DOP has entered the traditional off-season, DOP lacks effective support in demand side in June. In the later market, the prices of raw materials isooctanol and phthalic anhydride fluctuated, DOP cost decreased, DOP cost lost support, demand, DOP entered the off-season, DOP demand was expected to decline, and DOP rose to support the decline. DOP is expected to stabilize next week, and then DOP prices are down.

According to the monitoring of the business club, the average market price at the beginning of the week was 1715 yuan / ton, and that at the end of the week was 1765 yuan / ton, up 2.92% and 31.39% over the same period last year. Coking coal prices are strong this week.

On May 20, the coking coal commodity index was 127.80, up 1.23 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 184.57% from the lowest point of 44.91 on January 28, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now

According to the business community, due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, the production of domestic coal enterprises is still limited, the increment of coking coal is limited, and the traffic in Mongolia is less affected by the epidemic. At present, the coal sources at ports are still tight. In addition, due to the deterioration of Sino Australian relations, Australian coal imports are difficult to increase, the overall increase of coking coal is general, and the supply is tight.

Demand: the eighth round of coke market rise has been implemented, and the coke price is relatively strong. At present, the coke price has reached a new high in the year. At present, coking enterprises are active in production, and the utilization rate of production capacity has increased to a certain extent. In terms of coke demand, in the current steel demand peak season, the output of steel is not reduced under the high profit, and there is still a demand for coke replenishment. However, steel prices fell, the demand for coke weakened.

According to coking coal analysts of business society, the overall coal supply is relatively tight due to the impact of environmental protection inspection. Affected by the epidemic, Mongolia has few traffic, and the coal source at ports is still tight. In addition, due to the deterioration of Sino Australian relations, Australian coal imports are difficult to increase, the overall increase of coking coal is general, and the supply is tight. In terms of downstream coke: the eighth round of rise of coke market has been implemented, and the coke price is relatively strong. At present, the coke price has reached a new high in the year. At present, coking enterprises are active in production, and the utilization rate of production capacity has increased to a certain extent. In terms of coke demand, in the current steel demand peak season, the output of steel is not reduced under the high profit, and there is still a demand for coke replenishment. However, steel prices fell and demand for coke weakened. Policy in the face of market bullish sentiment has a certain blow, coking coal prices gradually slowed down. Generally speaking, the short-term coking coal is relatively strong, mainly on the whole, and specifically on the downstream market demand.

This week (5.17-21), the domestic ethyl acetate Market stabilized after the fall. At the beginning of the week, the decline of ethyl acetate continued last week. However, from the middle of the week to the weekend, the market gradually stabilized and stopped falling. The downstream demand is still relatively weak. At present, the market still shows no sign of rebound. According to the monitoring of business society, the decline of this week is 0.93%, slightly slower than the previous week (- 2.65%). The main reason is that the upstream acetic acid stops falling and stabilizes, and the ethyl acetate enterprises are generally on the verge of loss, so there is insufficient space for manufacturers to further fall. The operating rate is stable, the supply of goods is relatively sufficient, and the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, there is no sign of a better market.

First of all, from the perspective of the upstream acetic acid market, according to the monitoring of the business community, the price of acetic acid has been declining continuously since the festival, with a decline of 1.74% this week (5.17-21) (as shown in the figure below). On the one hand, the operating rate of acetic acid is high, generally between 80% and 90%, the output of manufacturers is stable and slightly increased, and the market supply is relatively sufficient, which suppresses the price rebound of downstream ethyl acetate.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, the current market supply is relatively abundant, and the operating rate of enterprises is stable. Domestic manufacturers have no maintenance for the time being. Some large manufacturers are mainly reducing prices and shipping this week. According to the calculation of the business society, the price reduction of large manufacturers is in the range of 100-200 yuan / ton, which is slower than the decline of 300 yuan last week.

From the perspective of supply and demand of ethyl acetate, the terminal demand entered the traditional off-season, and the reduction of downstream procurement depressed the price of ethyl acetate. After a previous round of price increase, the downstream showed rational and certain resistance to the high price of ethyl acetate, which affected the number of households and made the market more vulnerable.

In the future, the ethyl acetate analysts of the business club believe that after nearly two weeks of decline, ethyl acetate has entered the adjustment pattern in the short term. Considering that the manufacturers are facing losses and lack of space to continue to go down, Yankuang and Longyu, two major domestic manufacturers, have maintenance plans in June, and the supply will shrink at that time, and the price of ethyl acetate is expected to rise at that time.

According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, the acetic acid market continued to decline. On the 19th, the price of acetic acid was 7660.00 yuan / ton, down 0.49% from yesterday and 4.99% from early May. As of May 19, the market price of acetic acid in China is as follows:

region May 18th May 19th Price rise and fall

East China 7800-7900 yuan / ton 7800-7900 yuan / ton 0

South China 7700-7750 yuan / ton 7500-7550 yuan / ton – two hundred

North China 7700-7900 yuan / ton 7650-7900 yuan / ton – fifty

Shandong Province 7700-7900 yuan / ton 7500-7700 yuan / ton – two hundred

Jiangsu Province 7500-7600 yuan / ton 7300-7400 yuan / ton – two hundred

Zhejiang Province 7600-7700 yuan / ton 7400-7500 yuan / ton – two hundred

Hebei Province 7900 yuan / ton 7650 yuan / ton – two hundred and fifty

Northwest China 7300 yuan / ton 7300 yuan / ton 0

The domestic acetic acid market is weak. At present, the operation of acetic acid plants is normal, the inventory of manufacturers is increased, and the supply of acetic acid in the market is sufficient. The downstream traders just need to buy rationally, the purchase is limited, the market transaction is weak and stable, the short-term market supply and demand is dominated by the downstream, and the market sentiment is mainly bearish.

According to acetic acid analysts of business news agency, at present, domestic acetic acid manufacturers have increased inventory and sufficient supply in the market. However, enterprises reflect that the spot is still tight and the short-term market price remains high. As the downstream is mainly on demand, the overall supply and demand of the market, it is expected that the acetic acid market will decline slightly in the future.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is stable this week, while the price of battery grade lithium carbonate is slightly higher. On May 19, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 87000 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with that at the beginning of the week (on May 16, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 87000 yuan / ton). On May 19, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90800 yuan / ton, which was 0.22% higher than that at the beginning of the week (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90600 yuan / ton on May 16). On the 19th, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was around 82000-90000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market was around 85000-92000 yuan / ton.

By observing the market changes, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate continued to be stable this week, while the price of battery grade lithium carbonate was slightly higher, but the market as a whole is still in a relatively stable trend. At present, the inventory of lithium carbonate enterprises is relatively low, and the market demand of this month is better than that of April, which reduces the possibility that the price of lithium carbonate will be reduced. In addition, in the short term, due to the increase in the operating rate of domestic salt lakes, the output of lithium carbonate increased in the second quarter, and the price was slightly under pressure in the short term. However, the new energy industry chain maintained a high momentum. It is expected that under the catalysis of the new energy vehicle peak season in the third and fourth quarters, the price may rise again.

The overall trend of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market in the lower reaches is positive, and the cost side has certain support. In addition, the spot supply is tight, the demand increment drives the market upward, the enterprise offers are firm, and the focus of market negotiation rises. In terms of LiFePO4, the recent rise of LiFePO4 has slowed down. In May, LiFePO4 is mainly stable, and the demand for LiFePO4 is increasing. At present, the supply and demand are balanced.

On May 18, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 221.66, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.28% from 405.10 (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 124.94% from 98.54, the lowest point on October 16, 2014（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business news agency, the market demand for lithium carbonate has improved in the near future. Due to the increase in the operating rate of domestic salt lakes, the output of lithium carbonate has increased in the second quarter on a month basis, and the price is slightly under pressure in the short term. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will still be stable in the short term.