1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of aniline fell continuously this week. On May 16, the price of aniline in Shandong was 11300-11500 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11700 yuan / ton. On May 21, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10700-11000 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11100 yuan / ton. The average price was 4.08% lower than last week, 2.17% higher than the beginning of the month, 38.82% higher than the beginning of the year, and 141.91% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, crude oil and external market fell in a wide range this week, and external news was bad; The downstream styrene rises and falls, driving the center of gravity of pure benzene downward; The downstream procurement of local refining is general, the pressure of local refining shipment increases, and the price falls. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene remained at 8200 yuan / ton, while the price of local refining was significantly lower than that of Sinopec’s listed price, and the market was waiting for its price guidance. On Sunday (May 23), the price of pure benzene was 7700-8200 yuan / ton (average price was 8080 yuan / ton), and the average price fell 150 yuan / ton or 1.82% compared with last week; It was 133.53% higher than that of the same period last year.

The price of nitric acid fell this week compared with last week. On Friday (May 21), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2250 yuan / ton, up 56.98% compared with the same period last year.

Aniline prices fell this week. The aniline plant in the field is running normally, the downstream demand is generally followed up, and the inventory of the enterprise is accumulated. In addition, the week’s weak cost side, drag aniline market mentality.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, the European pure benzene plant was restarted to ease the tight situation of pure benzene supply in Europe and the United States. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will continue to decline in the later period. However, the short-term tight situation of domestic supply still existed, and the arrival of pure benzene in Hong Kong decreased in the later period, limiting the decline. On the whole, pure benzene is likely to continue to decline next week. Pay attention to Sinopec’s price guidelines. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

The devices in the plant are in normal operation and sufficient supply; There is still room for raw materials to fall, and the cost support is insufficient; The lower reaches may reduce the burden, and the demand for aniline is weak. Overall, aniline still has room to fall. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the follow-up of downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline price.