In April, the price of metallic silicon slightly decreased and showed a weak and stable trend overall. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 30, 2024, the reference price for the domestic 441 # metallic silicon market was 13660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.36% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 15.37% from the same period last year. In April, the fundamentals of silicon metal were in a state of stable supply and reduced demand. Due to the downward trend in silicon prices, the production enthusiasm of silicon factories weakened, and the supply side continued to contract. The operating rates of factories in various regions remained low; Downstream also reduced procurement operations due to the decline in silicon prices, and downstream production loss pressure gradually fed back to upstream. Under the bearish supply and demand side, the spot price of metal silicon weakened.

Supply side

According to data from Baichuan Yingfu, as of April 25th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 301, with an overall start-up rate of 40.4%, an increase of 12 compared to last week and a decrease of 3 compared to last month. Last week, the number of industrial silicon furnaces opened increased, mainly driven by maintenance and resumption of production by manufacturers in the northwest, while other regions saw a mutual increase and decrease.

In terms of inventory, as of April 26th, industrial silicon inventory slightly decreased last week, with social inventory of 364000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from last week and a decrease of 1000 tons from last month; This week, the inventory of industrial silicon factories was 88000 tons, which is basically the same as last week. Factory inventory: The trading situation in the spot market during the week was average, with some orders from silicon factories being delivered one after another, while most silicon factory inventory showed a slight increase.

Demand side

In April, domestic polycrystalline silicon saw a slight decline. In April, polycrystalline silicon enterprises maintained normal production, but the price of polycrystalline silicon continued to decline, and silicon factories were in a situation of reducing production and destocking. At present, the inventory of polycrystalline silicon enterprises continues to increase, and under the downward trend of prices, the losses of polycrystalline silicon enterprises have further expanded, and pressure has been continuously exerted on the procurement of raw material silicon powder.

In April, the overall domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a slight downward trend. In the early stage, downstream stocking was limited, and downstream purchasing willingness increased under low prices. The pressure of excess monomer factories is expected to ease. Recently, there has been a slight increase in the production of organic silicon enterprises, which has led to an increase in industrial silicon consumption. However, it is also important to note that the overall organic silicon industry is still in a loss making state, and the support for industrial silicon prices is limited. We will continue to monitor the downstream delivery of organic silicon in the future.

The price of aluminum alloy slightly decreased in April. Aluminum alloy enterprises have been operating steadily recently, but the industrial silicon market is weakening, so they are cautious in purchasing industrial silicon raw materials and prioritize on-demand procurement.

Future Market Forecast

On the supply side, there was not much change in supply in April, and silicon factories basically maintained their current production pace. However, as silicon prices continued to decline, silicon factory production actively weakened, and there is an expectation of a reduction in supply in May; In terms of demand, downstream enterprises are currently cautious in their procurement operations due to the continuous decline in industrial silicon prices, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. At present, the downstream of industrial silicon still faces significant pressure, with polycrystalline silicon continuously falling in price and the entire industry facing loss pressure. Organic silicon is currently at the bottom, and the market has not reversed. Downstream production pressure is negatively feedback to industrial silicon. Overall, the supply and demand side of the metal silicon market may turn into a weak supply-demand situation in May, with the fundamentals bearish on silicon prices. If there is no positive macro news to stimulate and downstream demand does not improve, it is expected that silicon prices will first decline and then stabilize or operate weakly in May.

This week (April 22-28, 2024), the adhesive short fiber market remained stable. The market for raw material dissolution slurry is generally stable, while the market for auxiliary material liquid alkali and sulfuric acid has experienced a narrow decline. The cost support for viscose short fibers is weak and stable. From the perspective of supply and demand, the recent shutdown and maintenance plans of adhesive short fiber manufacturers have been concentrated, resulting in a decrease in the supply of adhesive short fiber in the market. The inventory of various manufacturers is still at a low level, and there is some positive support on the supply side; The downstream cotton yarn market has maintained a high level of production, with some models experiencing shortages, but the overall market is still mainly focused on purchasing in demand, with no obvious signs of improvement on the demand side. Overall, the upstream raw material prices are weak and stable, while the cost support is weak. Downstream yarn factories mainly consume inventory, and the release of new orders on site is limited. Viscose short fiber manufacturers mainly execute shipments. The overall market sales speed is stable, and the market prices of viscose short fibers are consolidating horizontally.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of viscose short fibers remained weak and stable this week (April 22-28, 2024). As of March 28th, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13240 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

In terms of supply: This week (April 22-28, 2024), the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry remained around 74.31%, with a narrow decrease in production compared to last week. During the week, the maintenance facilities for adhesive short fibers in Jiangxi region were gradually restarted, while some adhesive short fiber facilities in Fujian region were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a slight decrease in overall market supply.

In terms of demand: downstream people mainly execute orders in the cotton yarn market, with little price change. Downstream enterprises have average purchasing power, with multi-dimensional support and on-demand procurement. Currently, the new round of signing has ended, and the operators have entered a period of inventory consumption.

In terms of cost: This week (April 22-28, 2024), the market price of raw material dissolution slurry remained stable, while the market prices of auxiliary material liquid alkali and sulfuric acid slightly decreased. The cost center shifted downwards, and the average production cost of viscose short fibers slightly decreased.

Downstream cotton yarn market

This week (April 22-28, 2024), downstream cotton yarn saw weak consolidation, with the market mainly executing orders, overall prices remained stable, overall shipments average, inventory basically maintained, demand side performance was weak, downstream demand did not show a significant improvement, and actual transactions on the market were limited. As of April 28th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17400 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Future Market Forecast:

The upstream raw material market is not volatile, and the inventory of various manufacturers is not high. There is not much change in the supply side in the short term. Downstream enterprises have average purchasing power, and they mainly deliver early orders. The overall market sales speed may continue to be stable. Business Society analysts predict that the market for viscose short fibers will remain stable in the short term, with market prices generally stable. The market for human cotton yarn will mainly operate weakly and steadily, and the price of viscose short fibers is expected to be between 13000-13300 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of bromine has risen this week. On April 22, the market average price was 19000 yuan/ton, and on April 24, the market average price was 19600 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.16% and a decrease of 23.74% compared to the same period last year. On April 24th, the bromine commodity index was 68.77, an increase of 0.7 points from yesterday, a decrease of 71.95% from the highest point of 245.18 points in the cycle (2021-10-27), and an increase of 16.72% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The price of bromine has risen this week, with mainstream quotes in the Shandong market ranging from 18500 to 20500 yuan/ton, indicating an upward trend in market prices. The supply of bromine manufacturers is now stable, and downstream flame retardants and intermediates industries are still mainly purchased on demand in the near future. The recent supply of imported bromine is average, but it still benefits domestic bromine manufacturers, causing bromine prices to rise. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been consolidating, with an average market price of 1223.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. On April 25th, the average market price was 1216.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%, an increase of 68.2% compared to the same period last year. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will rise in the near future, and upstream sulfur prices will remain stable. With the rise in bromine prices, downstream flame retardants and intermediates in the bromine industry are mainly purchased on demand in the near future, with moderate replenishment. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices will fluctuate in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 24th, the average market price of resorcinol was 44750 yuan/ton. On April 1st, the average market price of resorcinol was 44500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55% compared to the beginning of the month.

Pure benzene: The domestic price of pure benzene has fluctuated and increased this month. On April 23rd, the price of pure benzene was 8750 yuan/ton. On April 1st, the price of pure benzene was 8488 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.09% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 18.07% from the same period last year. In the first half of April, the overall increase in pure benzene in China was good. Affected by the continuous rise in crude oil, the cost support for pure benzene is strong. Macro and demand are suppressing oil prices in the short term, and the space for further upward movement of oil prices is being suppressed. In the second half of the month, due to insufficient support from pure benzene, prices may be lowered.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid fell first and then rose this month. On April 24th, the price of nitric acid was 1820 yuan/ton, and on April 1st, it was 1750 yuan/ton. The price increased by 4% compared to the beginning of the month and decreased by 28.15% compared to the same period last year. At present, the market supply and demand are stable, and transactions are mainly light. Market transactions are still lower than expected, and manufacturers mainly rely on orders for their shipments.

Isophenylenediamine: On April 24th, the average market price of meta phenylenediamine was 36000 yuan/ton. On April 1st, the average market price of meta phenylenediamine was 38233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.84% from the beginning of last month. Cost demand game, the price of meta phenylenediamine has fallen.

After a slight increase this month, resorcinol remained stable and market trading remained stable. The downstream rubber industry was cautious in purchasing, and there was no significant increase in demand for dyes and pesticide intermediates in the market. It is expected that the price of resorcinol will remain stable.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 23, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1042 yuan/ton. Compared with April 17 (reference price of 1052 yuan/ton for phosphate ore), the price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95%. Compared with the reference price of 1062 yuan/ton for phosphate ore on the 4th and 1st, the price has decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.88%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the first half of April, the overall domestic phosphate ore market showed a weak downward trend. Entering this week, the phosphate ore market continued to experience a slight bearish decline, with the market’s focus slightly downward. This week, some mining companies in areas with higher prices in the early stage have lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate rock by about 20 yuan/ton. At present, the difference between high and low prices in phosphate rock yards has been reduced. As of April 23rd, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore is based on around 1000-1100 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is relatively light, and the main factor affecting the weak operation of the phosphate ore market is the general boost provided by downstream demand. The weak operation of the downstream market of phosphate ore provides weak support for raw materials from bottom to top. In addition, the recovery performance of the terminal phosphate fertilizer market is slow, and the overall effective support in the phosphate ore field is insufficient.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is quiet. Currently, the overall supply tension in the phosphate ore market has eased, and the game between supply and demand is gradually emerging. The phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 15th to 22nd, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province dropped from 3705 yuan/ton to 3678 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73%, an increase of 2.14% month on month, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.05%. After the increase in asphalt prices, there was a slight correction. There is a clear north-south differentiation in asphalt spot prices, and Shandong and North China regions have a strong willingness to pull up prices, driving asphalt spot prices to continue to rise. However, the performance of terminal demand in the market is average, and the decline in crude oil weakens the cost support for the asphalt market. After the rise of asphalt spot prices, there is a slight decline, and the market maintains a stable, moderate, and weak operation.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, with negative impacts on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: within the same cycle, the crude oil market has declined narrowly. US crude oil inventories have increased beyond expectations, demand expectations have weakened, and conflict risk premiums have been suppressed. As of April 19th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $87.29 per barrel.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt varies slightly in different regions. The northern market mainly relies on scattered and rigid demand, while the southern region experiences rainy weather, which hinders actual demand. The demand side of the asphalt market has a mixed impact.

As of the close of April 22, the petroleum asphalt futures market has decreased. The main asphalt contract 2406 opened at 3744 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3757 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3720 yuan/ton. It closed at 3759 yuan/ton in the end, a decrease of 33% from the previous trading day’s settlement, a decrease of 0.88%. The trading volume was 110541 lots, and the position was 179862 lots, with a daily increase of -11368.

In the future, it is predicted that international crude oil will experience a high-level correction, and the support for asphalt costs will weaken. Some refineries plan to resume production, and supply may slightly increase. There are slight differences in actual demand between regions. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.

The price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 19th, the domestic isobutyraldehyde quotation was 7450 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.29% from the isobutyraldehyde price of 7212.50 yuan/ton on April 12th. The price of crude oil continues to rise, while the price of propylene, a raw material for isobutyraldehyde, fluctuates and rises. Downstream inventory of new pentanediol is depleted, and the demand support for the cost increase of isobutyraldehyde is limited. The driving force for the price increase of isobutyraldehyde is increasing.

The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 19th, the price of propylene was 6932.60 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.58% compared to the price of 6892.60 yuan/ton on April 12th. The price of raw material crude oil continues to rise, the cost of propylene has risen, the supply of propylene is sufficient, downstream construction has increased, and the enthusiasm for propylene transactions has increased. This week, the support for propylene’s rise has increased.

Limited downstream demand support

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 19th, the price of new pentanediol was 9933.33 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of 9933.33 yuan/ton quoted on April 12th. This week, some new pentanediol factories have seen a slight rebound in their quotations, and new pentanediol manufacturers are slowly reducing their inventory; Formaldehyde prices fluctuate and rise, while isobutyraldehyde prices fluctuate and rise. In terms of raw materials, the upward momentum of neopentyl glycol increases; Downstream demand for neopentyl glycol is weak. This week, the downward pressure on new pentanediol has weakened, and there is still upward momentum.

Market Overview and Forecast

Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde industry analyst believes that in terms of cost, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated and risen, and the cost of isobutyraldehyde has increased, providing greater support for the increase in isobutyraldehyde cost; In terms of demand, the market support for neopentyl glycol is limited, and the price of neopentyl glycol is temporarily stable. In the future, cost support demand is weak, and it is expected that the price of isobutyraldehyde will fluctuate and stabilize.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 18th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe sponge titanium was 54750.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month.

This week, the raw material titanium ore market is weak, and some high priced sources have lowered their prices. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of April 18th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe titanium concentrate was 2300.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.72% compared to the beginning of this month (2316.67 yuan/ton). Procurement should be based on demand, and observe more. The downstream titanium material market demand is stable, and sponge titanium shipments are normal.

According to analysts from Business Society Sponge Titanium, although raw material prices have fallen, the cost side is still under high pressure, and the market is mostly wait-and-see, purchasing on demand. The downstream titanium material market demand is stable, sponge titanium shipments are normal, and supply and demand are balanced. It is expected that the sponge titanium market will continue to operate steadily in the near future. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 17, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1052 yuan/ton. Compared with April 14 (reference price of 1062 yuan/ton for phosphate ore), the price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.94%. Compared to the prices on the 3rd and 1st day, it is basically the same.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that this week, the overall domestic phosphate ore market has shown a slight decline. Since April, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic phosphate ore market has been average, with limited new orders on the market. The downstream market of phosphate ore has shown weak performance, and the overall demand side has provided weak support for the phosphate ore market. In some regions, the slightly tight supply of phosphate ore can still support mining enterprises to maintain stable quotations. However, some regions are affected by weak supply and demand, and the overall pace of phosphate ore shipments is average. Therefore, some mining companies have lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore by about 20-30 yuan/ton. As of April 17th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

Attached are the market prices of phosphate ore in some domestic regions (for reference only):

Product/ Region/ Taste/ Price/ Remarks

Phosphate ore/ Guizhou region/ 30 grade/ 1000-1100 yuan/ton/ Stable operation

Phosphate ore/ Guangxi region/ 30 grade/ 1030-1100 yuan/ton/ Stable operation

Phosphate ore/ Sichuan region/ 30 grade/ 1080-1100 yuan/ton/ Stable operation

Phosphate ore/ Yunnan region/ 30 grade/ 1050-1080 yuan/ton/ Stable operation

Phosphate ore/ Hubei region/ 30 grade/ 1070-1120 yuan/ton/. Stable operation

Future analysis

At present, the overall on-site atmosphere of phosphate ore is weak, and the mentality of the industry is average. The overall purchasing activity in the downstream market is relatively low, and the market’s overall concern is gradually accumulating. The phosphate ore analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mostly be weak and adjust its operation. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of April 16th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4730 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.64% compared to the same period last week, and an increase of 1.99% compared to the same period last month. Currently, the mainstream price range in the market is around 4700-4800 yuan/ton. The upstream cost side is well supported, and the downstream demand is not decreasing. The overall market transaction atmosphere is positive. The upstream methanol is relatively strong, and some enterprises have shut down their facilities, resulting in a decrease in supply, leading to a narrow price range.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of cost: Since April, the overall shipment of upstream methanol has been good, and there has been no pressure on inventory to operate at a low level. Business owners have a positive attitude, and the bidding situation of enterprises is good. In the Guanzhong region, maintenance plans have been announced, and methanol prices are dominant. There is a shortage on the supply side, and there is a clear atmosphere of price support in the Shanxi region. The market transaction atmosphere is positive, while in the Hebei region, prices are dominant. However, the overall market demand is limited, and it is expected that the domestic methanol market will be mainly strong in the short term. In early April, the upstream liquid ammonia price showed a broad upward trend, with a price increase of more than 4% in half a month. Due to the upward trend in the prices of dual upstream products in early April, strong support was formed on the DMF cost side, and.

In terms of supply: Currently, there is not much change in the supply side, and inventory is operating at a low level without pressure. Price adjustment is the main trend, while downstream operating rates are stable. Demand side is still acceptable, with small orders as the main focus and limited quantities of large orders.

DMF Historical Price Monitoring: Currently, the price monitoring levels of DMF are 1-year medium low, two-year low, and three-year low. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average DMF price in the past year is 4880 yuan/ton, with a median value of 5000 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 4525 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 5475 yuan/ton. The bottom price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past year) is 205 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past year) is -745 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Technical prediction: In the short term, DMF may maintain its current trend with limited upward space

The future market of DMF may maintain its current trend, with a focus on stable and strong operations, with limited upward space. Since March 10, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 16, 2024, it is estimated that the probability of a change in the operating trend within the next 7 days (i.e., the 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) is 49.47%. Currently, this probability is similar, and it is expected that the DMF market will maintain its current narrow range and strong adjustment in the near future.

In summary, currently the cost side is dominated by upstream prices, and equipment maintenance provides favorable support for DMF. In addition, with the upcoming May Day holiday, downstream demand for replenishment is clearly driven. It is expected that the DMF market will mainly operate at high prices in the short term, with a focus on negotiations at a high level. The mainstream price is around 4800-5000 yuan/ton.