In April, the price of metallic silicon slightly decreased and showed a weak and stable trend overall. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 30, 2024, the reference price for the domestic 441 # metallic silicon market was 13660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.36% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 15.37% from the same period last year. In April, the fundamentals of silicon metal were in a state of stable supply and reduced demand. Due to the downward trend in silicon prices, the production enthusiasm of silicon factories weakened, and the supply side continued to contract. The operating rates of factories in various regions remained low; Downstream also reduced procurement operations due to the decline in silicon prices, and downstream production loss pressure gradually fed back to upstream. Under the bearish supply and demand side, the spot price of metal silicon weakened.

Supply side

According to data from Baichuan Yingfu, as of April 25th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 301, with an overall start-up rate of 40.4%, an increase of 12 compared to last week and a decrease of 3 compared to last month. Last week, the number of industrial silicon furnaces opened increased, mainly driven by maintenance and resumption of production by manufacturers in the northwest, while other regions saw a mutual increase and decrease.

In terms of inventory, as of April 26th, industrial silicon inventory slightly decreased last week, with social inventory of 364000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from last week and a decrease of 1000 tons from last month; This week, the inventory of industrial silicon factories was 88000 tons, which is basically the same as last week. Factory inventory: The trading situation in the spot market during the week was average, with some orders from silicon factories being delivered one after another, while most silicon factory inventory showed a slight increase.

Demand side

In April, domestic polycrystalline silicon saw a slight decline. In April, polycrystalline silicon enterprises maintained normal production, but the price of polycrystalline silicon continued to decline, and silicon factories were in a situation of reducing production and destocking. At present, the inventory of polycrystalline silicon enterprises continues to increase, and under the downward trend of prices, the losses of polycrystalline silicon enterprises have further expanded, and pressure has been continuously exerted on the procurement of raw material silicon powder.

In April, the overall domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a slight downward trend. In the early stage, downstream stocking was limited, and downstream purchasing willingness increased under low prices. The pressure of excess monomer factories is expected to ease. Recently, there has been a slight increase in the production of organic silicon enterprises, which has led to an increase in industrial silicon consumption. However, it is also important to note that the overall organic silicon industry is still in a loss making state, and the support for industrial silicon prices is limited. We will continue to monitor the downstream delivery of organic silicon in the future.

The price of aluminum alloy slightly decreased in April. Aluminum alloy enterprises have been operating steadily recently, but the industrial silicon market is weakening, so they are cautious in purchasing industrial silicon raw materials and prioritize on-demand procurement.

Future Market Forecast

On the supply side, there was not much change in supply in April, and silicon factories basically maintained their current production pace. However, as silicon prices continued to decline, silicon factory production actively weakened, and there is an expectation of a reduction in supply in May; In terms of demand, downstream enterprises are currently cautious in their procurement operations due to the continuous decline in industrial silicon prices, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. At present, the downstream of industrial silicon still faces significant pressure, with polycrystalline silicon continuously falling in price and the entire industry facing loss pressure. Organic silicon is currently at the bottom, and the market has not reversed. Downstream production pressure is negatively feedback to industrial silicon. Overall, the supply and demand side of the metal silicon market may turn into a weak supply-demand situation in May, with the fundamentals bearish on silicon prices. If there is no positive macro news to stimulate and downstream demand does not improve, it is expected that silicon prices will first decline and then stabilize or operate weakly in May.