According to the latest customs data, in August 2024, China imported 25000 tons of epichlorohydrin, a year-on-year decrease of 48.6%; Exported 300 tons of epichlorohydrin, an increase of 148.7% year-on-year. From January to August, China imported 178000 tons of epichlorohydrin, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%; Exported 12000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 253.4%.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market was weak and consolidated at the end of October, and the spot prices of some brands have fallen below the pre holiday level. As of October 29th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16033.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.41% compared to early October.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: At the end of October, there was limited change in the overall operating rate of PC in China. As of the time of writing, the industry average operating rate has slightly decreased from 82% in mid October to around 81%. The weekly production of PC remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons in the medium and long term, with abundant on-site supply and a profound supply-demand mismatch pattern. The loose supply pattern in October has not changed, and the good news is gradually dissipating. Manufacturers are unable to raise prices, and factory pricing is under pressure to be lowered. At the same time, the future maintenance plan is sparse, and the market supply side has a serious drag on PC prices.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic price of bisphenol A significantly decreased at the end of October. The direct raw materials of bisphenol A, phenol and acetone, have stopped falling and are expected to warm up in a narrow range. The easing of costs has not released any positive news in the short term, but has increased the production pressure of bisphenol A. The downstream production changes of the two main forces are limited, coupled with insufficient stocking heat, the profit situation of enterprises has weakened, and the consumption of bisphenol A is not good. In addition, at the beginning of the month, the load of the bisphenol A industry returned to be relatively high, and the current on-site supply of goods has increased. Overall, bisphenol A has weak support for PC costs.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. Last month, the traditional peak season “Golden September” terminal consumption situation has not yet unfolded, and the logic of weak rigid demand procurement continues until the end of October. The bidding price of Zhejiang Petrochemical has fallen at a low level, and the wait-and-see sentiment of the industry is biased. Buyers have strong resistance to high priced goods, and the circulation of goods on site is slow. The load recovery of downstream enterprises is not significant, and factories are taking goods to maintain production. At this point, the traditional peak season for PC sales this year has come to an end, and the demand side is unable to provide strong support for spot prices.

Future forecast

In the early stage, the PC market experienced a rebound in gains, but recently prices have been weak and moving forward. Although there are signs of a halt in the upstream bisphenol A market, it has rapidly declined in the early stages, with weak support on the PC cost side. The load of domestic aggregation plants continues to be high, and the supply remains high. Currently, the center of gravity of domestic PC prices has fallen below early October. Downstream peak season consumption has not been realized, and weak rigid demand stocking is difficult to drive the market. The flow of market goods is poor, and the mismatch between supply and demand is profound. At the same time, the positive sentiment of the macro commodity market has weakened, and the weak reality of the PC market has not improved. Although PC prices have fallen to the low point range of the year, industry benefits are difficult to materialize. Therefore, Shengyi Society predicts that the future PC market may face the risk of a downward trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic hydrogen peroxide market fluctuated and fell in October, with a drop of nearly 5%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 773 yuan/ton. On the 28th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 733 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.17%.

Poor terminal demand, hydrogen peroxide market weakens in October

After the National Day holiday, the demand for terminal rigidity increased, and manufacturers’ purchases of hydrogen peroxide rebounded slightly, supported by positive factors. The hydrogen peroxide market saw an increase, with an overall quotation of 700-800 yuan/ton. On October 10th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Shandong region was around 700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of about 20 yuan/ton. The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hebei region was 720 yuan/ton, with a price increase of about 40 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 840 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 40 yuan/ton.

In the middle of the month, the demand for terminal rigidity was weak, and manufacturers’ purchases of hydrogen peroxide were not good, with negative factors dominating. The hydrogen peroxide market was weak and fell, with an overall quotation of 700-750 yuan/ton. On October 23rd, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong remained stable at around 700 yuan/ton, while in Hebei it was 710 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 800 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 20 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hangzhou area is 950 yuan/ton, and the market remains stable.

At the end of the month, the terminal paper and printing industry market weakened, and the domestic hydrogen peroxide market showed weak upward momentum, mainly due to continuous weak bottoming out. The mainstream market price was 700-750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, and the overall market was mainly weak and oscillating.

Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide analyst believes that in November, the rigid demand for terminal hydrogen peroxide remains weak, and the market trend will continue to weaken in the future.

The slight surge in crude oil has pushed up the PTA market. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price in East China this week (October 21-25) was 4953 yuan/ton, an increase of 1% from the beginning of the week.

The crude oil market is affected by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and on the other hand, crude oil supply remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. Supply shortages still exist, and international crude oil prices are rising. In addition, the improvement of the local economy in Asia, the easing of market panic on demand, and the reduction of US crude oil inventories have supported the oil market. As of October 23rd, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.77 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.96 per barrel.

From the perspective of PTA itself, the rise lacks a solid foundation. In terms of supply, a long-term shutdown of a 2 million ton PTA plant in East China is planned to restart in November, and the plant will be shut down in January 2024. In mid December, a new production capacity of 2.7 million tons is planned to be put into operation in East China. The restart of PTA old facilities and the planned production of new capacity will accelerate inventory accumulation. At the same time, end buyers have not continued to purchase in large quantities, resulting in a lack of substantial positive supply and demand, and PTA prices continue to rise weakly.

The demand side is approaching the end of the traditional peak season, and the factory shipment situation has not improved yet. The operating rate of the polyester industry is around 88%. There are fewer market orders, lower market trading enthusiasm, fewer inquiries, and a strong wait-and-see attitude to consume inventory. As we enter the end of October, there is no sign of improvement in the textile terminal market, and enterprise inventory may show a trend of accumulation, leading to increased shipping pressure. New orders are scarce, foreign trade orders are few, and inventory shows a trend of accumulation.

Business analysts believe that there is uncertainty in the geopolitical situation, and concerns about crude oil supply are fluctuating. Therefore, oil prices may continue to fluctuate, providing support for PTA costs. However, the PTA factory has a low intention for equipment maintenance, and the supply of goods is still abundant. In addition, the seasonal peak season for terminal textiles is coming to an end, and there is limited room for improvement in the future. Overall, PTA supply and demand are weak, and it is expected that prices may fall.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of October 22, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises remained stable and upward at 4220 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week, with a price increase of 0.96% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the overall market focus is stable, and overall market shipments are slow. The mainstream market price is around 4200 yuan/ton, and downstream market stocking is not active, with rigid procurement being the main focus.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall market price of DMF remained stable, with prices maintained at around 4200 yuan per ton. Currently, downstream demand is still acceptable, with essential purchases being the main focus. Manufacturers offer discounts and place orders, with the mainstream price range being around 4100 yuan per ton. Manufacturers offer discounts and place orders, with a strong cautious and wait-and-see attitude. Downstream essential purchases are the main focus. Currently, DMF cost support is insufficient, and inventory is running at a high level.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that DMF is expected to maintain its current trend in the short term, with mainstream prices around 4200 yuan/ton and insufficient upward momentum.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market continued to decline from October 14 to 21, 2024. On October 14th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6200 yuan/ton, and on October 21st, the benchmark price of toluene was 5850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.65% during the period. This cycle coincided with the National Day holiday, during which the external market continued to rise. The toluene market made up for the post holiday gains, and the overall ex factory prices of main refineries increased. However, downstream follow-up was insufficient and lacked demand support, resulting in weak growth in the toluene market. After the holiday, there were more arrivals in the port market, and market supply increased. Under the influence of sufficient supply, the toluene market rose and then fell back, and the overall trading in the spot market was weak. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong.

Cost wise: As of the 18th, international crude oil futures closed down, with the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States at $68.69 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.06 per barrel. The recent trend of crude oil prices has fallen, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is controllable. In addition, the future demand for crude oil market is worrying, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market; However, the recent decline in US crude oil inventories still provides support for the crude oil market, resulting in a slight decrease in overall crude oil market prices.

Supply side: Sinopec toluene quotation situation: Currently, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, the products are mostly self used, and the production and sales are stable. As of October 21st, East China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5900-5950 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5900 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On October 21st, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7600 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the price on October 14th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of October 18th, the closing price of the xylene market in Asia increased by $10/ton, with a closing price of $823-825/ton FOB Korea and $848-850/ton CFR China.

On Friday (October 18th), the Asian toluene market closed higher: the FOB South Korean closing price in October was 712-714 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton; The closing price of CFR China in October is 709-711 US dollars per ton, an increase of 9 US dollars per ton.

Market forecast: In the near future, the toluene market will be less affected by crude oil and mainly affected by supply and demand. The market supply has significantly increased recently, and refineries are actively reducing prices to sell their accumulated inventory. Downstream demand will basically maintain on-demand procurement, and gasoline demand in some areas will perform well. However, overall, there is still support on the demand side. It is expected that the toluene market will remain stable in the short term, with minor fluctuations during the week.

This week (October 14-18, 2024), the bearish trend dominated the nylon filament market, and the trend continued to decline. The upstream raw material market continues to decline, with weakened cost support and no improvement in downstream terminal market demand. Downstream manufacturers are holding onto their essential needs and following suit. The trading atmosphere in the market is average, and many businesses are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament continued to decline this week (October 14-18, 2024). As of October 18, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 17780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton or 1% from the beginning of last week; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 15300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 1.13%. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 19300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton or 0.92% compared to last week.

Weak raw materials continue to decline

This week (October 14-18, 2024), in terms of nylon filament raw material caprolactam, the market sentiment is bearish, and the industry chain is mostly pessimistic. On site supply is gradually easing, and prices continue to decline. As of October 18, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 11450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.08% from last week.

Supply demand

This week (October 14-18, 2024), the overall supply of nylon filament market remained stable, and most of the nylon filament market facilities were operating steadily. Currently, the daily production of nylon filament market is running at around 8.4%. On the demand side, the traditional peak season for textile production in October did not meet expectations, and the “Silver Ten” event did not materialize. Demand did not substantially improve, coupled with weak costs. Weaving manufacturers have mostly maintained stable production, and foreign trade brands have gradually issued orders. However, the order volume is still mainly in the form of a small number of multiple orders, and there are still few bulk goods. Lack of market confidence.

Future forecast

Although entering the traditional peak season for textiles, downstream market demand will improve to some extent, but there is currently no obvious sign of improvement, and on-demand procurement is still the main focus; The cost side caprolactam market is mainly weak, and the cost side support for nylon filament is weak. Pessimistic sentiment is pervasive in the market, and demand is unlikely to improve significantly. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly consolidate and operate weakly.

Although the market expects limited supply growth in October, demand remains weak and there is still little possibility of a rebound in transaction volume. Although domestic acrylonitrile plants have been reducing their load since August, with production dropping to around 63% at one point, the production in August still increased by 20000 tons compared to the same period last year, resulting in oversupply in the market. Therefore, manufacturers currently have sufficient inventory. In addition, although the profitability of downstream ABS manufacturers has improved, the increase in operating load of the devices is limited, and some new devices have not increased their load as expected, resulting in limited overall demand growth. The overall market presents a situation of sufficient supply but insufficient demand, and there is a lack of price action.

At present, the price difference between the north and south markets still exists, and multiple acrylonitrile plants in the south are undergoing production reduction or maintenance, leading to a tightening of supply and firm offers from manufacturers. But the northern region is operating at full capacity, and under the pressure of shipment, the focus of transactions continues to decline. With the gradual restart of the early maintenance equipment and the increase in on-site supply, prices in the south will also be dragged down by the north, and the focus of transactions may decline accordingly.

In terms of cost, multiple units such as a PDH unit in Jiangsu and an MTO unit in Nanjing have been shut down for maintenance. The spot circulation of propylene in East China is not large, and the supply pattern remains tight. It is expected that the East China market will remain stable and strong in the short term, and the cost pressure of acrylonitrile still exists.

In terms of demand, downstream ABS has returned from the National Day holiday, and the second production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II is gradually achieving mass production. Jilin Petrochemical’s plant has restarted, and Zhangjiagang Shengxiao ABS plant has restarted, resulting in a slight increase in demand. However, in terms of downstream acrylic fiber, multiple facilities such as Ningbo Zhongxin, Hangzhou Bay, and Jilin Chemical Fiber have been shut down for maintenance, resulting in a significant reduction in demand. The overall demand is still insufficient

Market expectation: Overall, the price difference between the north and south will continue to exist in the short term, but the continued weakness of downstream demand will also drag down transaction prices in the East China region. However, considering the current significant losses in the acrylonitrile industry, the downward space is limited, and the short-term acrylonitrile market will mainly experience weak fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has slightly increased. On October 13th, the average market price was 19860 yuan/ton, and on November 16th, the average market price was 20060 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01% and a decrease of 16.42% compared to the same period last year. On October 15th, the bromine commodity index was 70.39, up 0.35 points from yesterday, down 71.29% from the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and up 19.47% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the price of bromine has been operating strongly, with prices in Shandong region remaining firm. The mainstream market price is around 19500-20500 yuan/ton. This week, it is not affected by weather factors, and rainfall has significantly decreased. Bromine enterprises are operating normally with low inventory levels. The enthusiasm for inquiries and purchases of downstream flame retardants for bromine is relatively high, and the current downstream demand has limited cost support for bromine, which has boosted the overall market. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been consolidating, with an average market price of 1417.67 yuan/ton on October 13th and 1427.67 yuan/ton on October 16th. The price has increased by 0.71%, which is 54.06% higher than the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain strong in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain strong. Downstream flame retardants have a high level of enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement. Currently, downstream demand has limited cost support for bromine, which has boosted the overall market. Downstream inquiries are more active, and the supply-demand game is expected to continue the strong performance of bromine in the later period. The specific situation depends on downstream market demand.

Asphalt futures rose more than 2% in the evening session, as the rebound of asphalt was limited due to insufficient cost support. In terms of supply, the total domestic asphalt production in September was 2.0025 million tons, a decrease of 58000 tons or 2.81% compared to the previous month; A year-on-year decrease of 1.1422 million tons, a decrease of 36.32%. The demand for asphalt is showing a marginal improvement trend, and the shipping atmosphere is still acceptable. In the short term, the national climate conditions are suitable, which is favorable for road project construction. In addition, there will also be a rush to work in the north, and the demand for asphalt is still good. In November, the demand in the north may decline. Expected short-term supply and demand impact, asphalt is expected to fluctuate narrowly.