Aluminum prices rose by 0.78% in November
Aluminum prices first rose and then fell in November. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 29, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 21460 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78% from the market average price of 21293.33 yuan/ton on November 1; Compared to the market average price of 21933.33 yuan/ton on November 13th, it has decreased by 2.16%.
In November 2025, aluminum prices continued their upward trend from the end of October and repeatedly hit new highs for the year. Additionally, the price of raw material alumina fell from its high point, and the profit per ton of aluminum is currently in a relatively good position. The strengthening of aluminum prices in November was mainly driven by the concentrated release of macro bullish factors, continued supply side constraints, and a combination of factors such as low inventory levels. The specific reasons are as follows
1. Macro level bullish concentration release
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut has increased market risk appetite: at the end of October, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, and in November, Fed officials’ dovish speeches further raised expectations of interest rate cuts. This series of operations has eased global liquidity pressure, increased market risk appetite, and boosted traders’ stocking enthusiasm. Downstream enterprises have also taken advantage of price declines to reserve raw materials in advance, accelerating inventory turnover and creating a favorable market atmosphere for the rise in aluminum prices.
US China tariff negotiations alleviate export concerns: On October 30th, a consensus was reached in US China tariff negotiations to lower trade barriers for some aluminum products. Not only did the equivalent tariff of 24% be suspended, but China also suspended relevant export control measures simultaneously. This result alleviates market concerns about restricted exports of aluminum products, facilitates the release of orders by aluminum processing enterprises, and indirectly drives up aluminum prices.
Expected cost of easing and stabilizing the situation in the Middle East: The easing of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has reduced the risk of significant fluctuations in energy prices. Electrolytic aluminum belongs to a high energy consuming industry, with energy costs accounting for a very high proportion of its production. Stable energy price expectations have made the cost expectations of the aluminum industry chain more clear, reducing market panic caused by cost fluctuations and providing indirect support for the stable rise of aluminum prices.
2. Prominent supply side constraints
Domestic production capacity has reached its peak and regional transportation has been hindered: the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China has approached the policy red line of 45 million tons, with a capacity operating rate of over 96% and almost no net new capacity space. After the start of the northern heating season in November, the efficiency of aluminum ingot transportation from the main production areas in Northwest China decreased due to limited road transportation, resulting in a sharp decline in aluminum ingot arrivals in East China. The regional supply tension pattern became prominent, and even if a small amount of technological transformation capacity resumes production in Southwest China, it is difficult to offset the impact of continuous inventory depletion in East China and support the rise of aluminum prices.
Continuous overseas supply disruptions: The global supply elasticity of electrolytic aluminum is already insufficient, and there have been consecutive supply disruptions overseas around November. For example, the Icelandic aluminum plant reduced production due to equipment failure, and a certain aluminum plant in Australia faced the risk of shutdown due to high electricity costs. These events further tightened the global supply of electrolytic aluminum, providing strong support for the upward trend of international aluminum prices.
3. Amplify price elasticity at low inventory levels

The weakening of the inventory “reservoir” function has exacerbated the upward trend of aluminum prices. In November, LME aluminum inventory showed a continuous destocking trend of high opening and low decline, with a cumulative decrease of 19000 tons throughout the month, a decrease of about 3.4%; The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots also showed a trend of slight fluctuations at first, followed by continuous and steady destocking, with only a brief accumulation in the middle of the month, and the overall destocking direction remained unchanged. The continuous low inventory has greatly reduced the market’s ability to withstand supply fluctuations, and the upward elasticity of aluminum prices has been significantly amplified.
4. Provide long-term support for emerging field demands
Although the demand for aluminum showed a trend of differentiation in November, with a decrease in the operating rate of traditional fields such as building profiles, the demand for new energy has remained strong. By 2025, the global production of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 25 million units, and the new installed capacity of photovoltaics is expected to reach 550GW. These two major fields have brought about a significant increase in demand for aluminum. At the same time, the trend of “aluminum replacing copper” continues to advance in the power sector, and stable demand has laid a solid foundation for the high operation of aluminum prices, providing underlying support for the November aluminum price rise.