Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic zinc price fluctuated and fell in June. As of June 30, the price of zinc was 20233.33 yuan/ton, down 4.78% from 21250.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Zinc prices fell 14.01% over the same period last year.

II. Market Trend Analysis

International Zinc Price:

The volatility of zinc price in LME market in June caused a negative impact on the domestic zinc market, and the domestic zinc price followed the decline. Inventory in zinc market declined, supply in zinc market declined, and zinc market in the future had an upward momentum.

Data statistics:

The report released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) shows that the global zinc supply shortage increased to 84,000 tons in April and 48,700 tons in March.

According to a report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global zinc market was oversupplied by 4,600 tons in January-April 2019, compared with 67,000 tons in the whole year of last year. Global refined zinc production declined by 4% from January to April 2019, and consumption decreased only slightly from the same period last year. Apparent demand in Japan was 177,700 tons, down 2.7% from January to April 2018. Global zinc demand declined by 1,000 tons from January to April 2019. China’s apparent demand is 1969,000 tons, accounting for about 46% of the global total. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. In the first four months of this year, the global supply shortage of zinc increased to 97,000 tons, compared with 53,000 tons in the same period last year.

The data show that the growth of global supply is declining faster than that of demand. Zinc supply shortage is increasing, and the driving force of Zinc market is greater.

Zinc production in 2019

It can be seen from the table that zinc production decreased year on year in 2019, but unlike the continuous decline of zinc production in 18 years, the decline slowed down in 19 years, and zinc production rebounded in May. According to the data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Organization, zinc production in China was expected to be released in the second half of the year. In 2019, zinc production in China increased by 5.3%, and refined zinc production in the world would also increase by 3.6%. It is expected that zinc production capacity will gradually be released and zinc supply will increase in the future.

Policies and regulations:

On June 6, the State Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Ecological Environment and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Renewal and Upgrading of Key Consumer Goods and Unobstructed Recycling of Resources (2019-2020) (hereinafter referred to as the “Plan”), which takes the structural reform of the supply side as the main line, and focuses on promoting the upgrading of automobile, household appliances and consumer electronics products from four aspects of “consolidation, enhancement, promotion and smoothness”. Promote the recycling of old products. The introduction of the scheme has obvious advantages for automobile and household appliances industries. In the future, the demand for zinc ingots in automotive and household appliances industries will rise sharply, and the demand of zinc market will rise in the future, which will benefit the price of zinc obviously.

Statistics of automobile sales

According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as “China Automobile Association”), in May 2019, domestic automobile sales totaled 1913,000 vehicles, down 16.4% from the same period last year. Passenger car sales were 1.511 million, down 17.4% year-on-year. From January to May, automobile sales totaled 10.266 million vehicles, down 13% year-on-year; from January to May, passenger car sales totaled 8.399 million vehicles, down 15.2% year-on-year, a slight increase over January to April. From January to May 2019, car sales declined by 15.8%, 13.77%, 5.2%, 14.6% and 16.4% respectively. China Automobile Association said that due to the downward pressure of macro-economy and the early implementation of the Sixth Emission Standard in some regions, automobile production and sales are still at a low level. It is expected that in the second half of the year, with the increasing number of car models meeting the Sixth National Standard and the continuing effect of a series of policy measures such as tax reduction and fee reduction, the car market will all improve. Automobile sales fell, demand for zinc fell, domestic zinc price shocks fell, and zinc prices were negative in the future.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Business analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that: in June, the zinc market shocks adjustment, overall small shocks fell. From the international market point of view, the fluctuation of international zinc price has fallen, which has a negative impact on zinc market and a negative impact on zinc ingot inventory in the international market. In the domestic market, the stock of zinc ingot in Shanghai futures market has risen, the supply of domestic zinc market is sufficient, and the price of zinc has a negative impact on zinc. Consumption upgrading policy, stimulating consumption, has a better demand for zinc market in the future, automobile sales continue to decline, zinc demand in the future market has declined. The market is bullish. Generally speaking, zinc market has mixed positive and negative results. In the future, demand of zinc market has warmed up. At the same time, zinc production has increased, supply of zinc has increased. In the second half of the year, the supply and demand of zinc may be booming, and the overall zinc price may increase. However, because the growth of demand in zinc city mainly comes from government policy stimulus, the macroeconomic environment has not changed fundamentally, the demand of zinc city brings more uncertainty, whether the demand of zinc city can meet expectations, whether the supply and demand of zinc city in the future can keep balance, and the uncertainty leads to the fluctuation of zinc city in the future. Overall, however, in July, the zinc market was better than the bad. It is expected that the zinc price will adjust broadly in July.

On June 27, the PX Commodity Index was 58.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.97% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 28.21% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 27th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation, Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant put into operation, and other units operated steadily temporarily. Due to the normal supply of p-xylene in the domestic market when the new unit was put into operation, p-dimethyl benzene was supplied normally. The price trend of toluene market is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On June 26, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 10 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 823-825 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 842-844 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price of p-xylene in Asia is stable temporarily.

On June 26, the price of WTI crude oil in August rose to $59.38 per barrel, up $1.55. Brent crude oil in August rose to $66.49 per barrel, up $1.44. The rising trend of crude oil price has a cost supporting effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products, while the price trend of paraxylene market is temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has been stable for a while, PTA prices have risen on the 26th. The average offer price in East China is raised near 6450-6500 yuan/ton. By the 26th, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 94%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, the PTA market price is rising, and the price of PX market is expected to remain volatile in the later period.

On June 26, the PX Commodity Index was 58.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.97% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 28.21% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 26th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation, Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant put into operation, and other units operated steadily temporarily. Due to the normal supply of p-xylene in the domestic market when the new unit was put into operation, p-bis The price trend of toluene market is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On June 25, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 3 US dollars/ton. The closing price was 813-815 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 832-834 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of domestic imports are needed. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporarily stable.

On June 25, the futures market of WTI crude oil in July fell to 57.83 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.07 U.S. dollars. The futures price of Brent crude oil rose to 65.05 U.S. dollars per barrel in August, a rise of 0.19 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices declined, which lost some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price of paraxylene market stabilized temporarily. Recently, the textile industry has been stable for a while. PTA prices fluctuated on the 25th day. The average offer price in East China was raised near 6050-6150 yuan/ton. As of the 25th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate was about 93.5%, the polyester industry start-up rate was about 90%, and the downstream production and sales rate maintained a high level. However, the PTA market price fluctuated, and the PX market price is expected to remain volatile in the later period.

On June 24, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 55.47, up 1.46 points from yesterday, down 53.83% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 14.56% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride has risen slightly, the market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has rebounded, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory is still under pressure, high-end transactions are blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 5600-5800 yuan/ton, the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5300-5400 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of phthalic anhydride in North China is 5600-5700 yuan/ton, and the market price is small. The price of phthalic anhydride plant in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride is rising slightly.

In recent years, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 5900 yuan/ton. The import market of o-phthalic anhydride in port area is temporarily stable, and the quotation is stable. In recent years, the market of o-phthalic anhydride in port is general, and the port stock is low. Upstream raw materials mixed xylene price shocks, phthalic turnover is general, port phthalic inventory is low, phthalic external quotation is low, import phthalic cost shocks, the actual transaction price is detailed, upstream price trend remains low, phthalic anhydride market price rise is limited. Downstream DOP raw material phthalic anhydride price rises, isooctanol price rises, DOP cost rises. DOP price shocks are higher, DOP downstream demand is general, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market shocks are stable, DOP market mainstream transaction price is around 7150 yuan/ton, DOP downward pressure is weakened, there is a certain upward momentum, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise slightly later.

I. Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of business associations, this week (6.17-6.21) domestic cis-butadiene rubber prices fell slightly, the price at the beginning of the week was 11,487 yuan/ton, the weekend price was 1,1250 yuan/ton, the overall decline of 2.07%.

II. Market Analysis

Petrochemical ex-factory price: This week (6.17-6.21) domestic cis-butadiene rubber petrochemical factory ex-factory price overall reduced by 500 yuan/ton, as of June 21, Daqing Petrochemical cis-butadiene rubber ex-factory price 11,000 yuan/ton.

Rubber import and export: In May 2019, China imported 507,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a decrease of 8.98% in ring ratio, and 263.5 tons in January-May. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 3.5%.

Raw Material: The price of raw material butadiene rose slightly this week, and the cost of cis-butadiene rubber was more profitable than the price of cis-butadiene rubber. According to the business association, butadiene was 8390 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8434 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 0.52% on the whole.

Demand: According to statistics, in May 2019, domestic rubber tyre tyre output was 72.043 million, down 2.33% annually, up 0.2% year-on-year; in January-May, domestic rubber tyre output was 33.3767 million, down 2.4% year-on-year.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, a business analyst, believes that at present, on the one hand, the price of upstream butadiene has risen slightly, which supports the price of synthetic rubber, on the other hand, the downstream market of rubber continues to be weak, forming a negative atmosphere for cis-butadiene rubber as a whole. In the later period, the market of cis-butadiene rubber will maintain a narrow fluctuation.

Price Trend

Aniline market prices in Shandong and Nanjing remained stable this week compared with last week, according to a large list of business associations. The mainstream price in Shandong is 5700 yuan/ton, while that in Jiangsu is 6050 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

Raw Material: This week, pure benzene is well supported by downstream styrene. At the beginning of this week, all pure benzene enterprises have raised their prices. Towards the weekend, the mentality of the pure benzene market has fallen, but the factory is still dominated by a high price mentality, and the low price supply is difficult to find. And pure benzene has long been in the inverted state of internal and external chains, and the overall price of aniline forms a support.

Products: Shandong Jinmao 100,000 tons/year aniline plant has been overhauled since the beginning of June with a planned overhaul of one month; Nanhua 100,000 tons/year plant overhaul in early June; Shandong Dongying Huatai 100,000 tons/year plant half-load operation; Lanhua 70,000 tons/year plant overhaul; Taixing Xinpu 100,000 tons/year plant permanent shutdown.

Downstream: This week, the overall MDI is on the rise, up 1.45%, supporting the price of aniline.

III. Future Market Expectations

The price of raw material pure benzene will support the price of aniline because of the significant cost-surface pressure.

In June, aniline production enterprises had more overhauls, less supply and tight supply. It is expected to recover somewhat in late June.

Aniline market has warmed up, downstream enterprises resume production, relevant rubber additives, reactive dyes companies will increase the purchase of aniline.

Aniline is expected to rebound in the future, the market will usher in a wave of  increasing

On June 20, the fluorite commodity index was 107.89, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.37% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 119.24% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, domestic fluorite prices have maintained a high trend, with the average domestic fluorite price of 3075 yuan/ton as of the 20th day. In recent years, domestic fluorite plants have been operating normally, mines and flotation plants have been operating normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tight, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has risen recently. For the fluorite market, the price of fluorite market has risen on demand. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of the 20th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2900-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3000-3300 yuan/ton. The price trend of fluorite remained high.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. As of the 20th day, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 1,1940 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite has weakened and the price fluctuation of fluorite has been running. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water out of the factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly.

On June 19, the PX commodity index was 58.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.97% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 28.21% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the market price trend of p-xylene in China was temporarily stable on the 19th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started one line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX units in Asia is about 80%. On June 18, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 5 US dollars per ton. The closing price is 781-783 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 800-802 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On June 18, the price of WTI crude oil in July rose to 53.90 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.97 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil in August rose to 62.14 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.20 U.S. dollars. Crude oil price trend rose, which has a cost supporting effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price of Brent crude oil in August went up. The situation is temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has stabilized temporarily, PTA price has increased slightly on the 19th. The average price of East China is raised near 5750-5850 yuan/ton. As of the 18th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 88.5%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 88.5%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, PTA market price shocks. The price of PX market in the later period is expected to be high or low. Will be low shock.

On June 17, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 54.83, down 0.64 points from yesterday, down 54.36% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 13.24% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has declined slightly, the market of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has maintained a weak position, downstream factories have maintained just-in-demand purchasing, factory inventory pressure has continued, high-end transactions have been hindered, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 5600-5700 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5200-5300 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5600-5700 yuan/ton, which The price of phthalic anhydride in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the market is not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride is declining.

Recently, the execution price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 5900 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price in the market is 5900 yuan/ton. The quotation is declining, and the port’s market is general. The price of raw materials mixed xylene in upstream is lower, the turnover of phthalic anhydride is general, the stock of phthalic anhydride in port is low, the quotation of phthalic outer plate is lower, the cost of imported phthalic anhydride is oscillating, the actual transaction price is detailed, the price trend in upstream is declining, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is declining. DOP downstream price is lower, DOP downstream demand is general, customer procurement enthusiasm is not good, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7000 yuan/ton, DOP downstream price is still under pressure, downstream price is slightly lower, demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, phthalic anhydride market price is slightly lower, it is expected that the later market price of phthalic anhydride will be about 5600 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of June 17, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2186 yuan/ton, and the domestic market of methanol tended to be stable.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The northwest methanol market is stable. The overall market in Inner Mongolia is stable at about 1850 yuan/ton. The shipment situation of local enterprises is general. The methanol market in North China is stable for the time being. Shandong Lunan area is affected by environmental protection, and some enterprises limit production. Eastern China’s methanol market is slightly light, buyers and sellers are slightly deadlocked, and the Middle East oil tanker accident has little stimulation to the market. The central China market is running steadily for the time being. The main enterprises’offer is temporarily stable. Although the traders have certain operation actions, the actual single operation is limited. The downstream is still dominated by just demand, the demand is weak and difficult to change. The overall transaction is still relatively general. At present, the Luoyang area talks about 2070-2080 yuan/ton. The methanol market in South China is weak and the overall atmosphere is not good. With the end of the “Meiyu” season in South China, terminal demand has risen, but with the storm of Middle East tankers fading, spot prices in South China eventually fall again.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: formaldehyde market is light and stable. Each enterprise’s offer is temporarily stable, the upstream methanol market is tidying up and running, and the downstream market is not well started as a whole, the demand side is weak and difficult to change, and the overall turnover is relatively light. Dimethyl ether: The price of dimethyl ether is stable and the trading atmosphere is good. International crude oil rebounded strongly, and good news support was evident. Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market is stable. The four major suppliers in East China are still in short supply. The main suppliers are pre-delivery orders. Neighbouring production enterprises have successively delivered pre-orders, with a small number of new orders, and some stock quantities have accumulated, while the offer price is temporarily stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: At present, the upstream inventory is under great pressure, and the downstream follow-up is cautious. The pace of trading in various markets is not warm. The upstream and trade mentality are still not optimistic in the short term. Business Cooperative Methanol Analysts expect that the domestic methanol market will remain weak in the short term.