1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 29, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 18333.33 yuan/ton, 0.90% lower than the price of 18500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 1.85% higher than the same period last year.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 29, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24500.00 yuan/ton, down 3.29% from the price of 25333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and down 20.97% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In December, the price of domestic refrigerant R22 was generally weak and stable. Pressed by the continuous weakness of upstream raw material prices in November, the prices quoted by enterprises decreased slightly in December. The overall price decline of raw material trichloromethane stabilized in the month, with a small drop of 4.23% in the month. The price of hydrofluoric acid fell again, with a 1.8% drop in the month. The cost of raw materials continued to be weak. The domestic refrigerant R22 market price continued to bear pressure and adjusted slightly. Supported by the overall low inventory of enterprises at the end of the year, the overall domestic R22 market price was weak and stabilized in December.

In December, the domestic price of trichloroethylene continued to be weak, with a decline of about 9% in the month. The price of hydrofluoric acid dropped slightly, with an overall decline of 1.8% in the month. The cost of raw materials fell again. In addition, the demand for refrigerants in winter was light. The overall downstream purchase and sales were cautious, and the cost was suppressed. In November, the domestic price of refrigerant R134a was stable, moderate and weak.

12 The domestic hydrofluoric acid price has risen and fallen slightly, and the rising and falling raw material price will suppress the future refrigerant R134a price to a certain extent.

3、 Future market forecast

Refrigerant analysts from the business community believe that in December, the price of refrigerant upstream raw materials remained weak, the cost of raw materials fell again, and the demand for refrigerant in winter was light. Under the pressure of cost and demand, the price of domestic refrigerant R22 and R134a will continue to be dominated by stable, moderate and weak operation under pressure in the short term.

The price of aluminum fluoride is weak and stable this week

According to the data from the business community, as of December 26, the average price of aluminum fluoride in China was 12200 yuan/ton, down 0.41% from 12250 yuan/ton on December 19. The demand is poor, and the price of aluminum fluoride is weak this week.

The price of raw materials is temporarily stable

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 26, the price of fluorite was 3387.50 yuan/ton, stable compared with 3387.50 yuan/ton on December 18; As of December 26, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 12757.14 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of 12757.14 yuan/ton on December 18. This week, the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid remained stable at a high level, the prices of raw materials were temporarily stable, the cost of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable, and the upward momentum of aluminum fluoride was weakened.

Adjustment of downstream demand weakness

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of electrolytic aluminum dropped slightly this week. As of December 26, the price of electrolytic aluminum was 18766.67 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from 18853.33 yuan/ton on December 18. The impact of epidemic prevention and control on economic recovery was less than expected, the price of electrolytic aluminum fell, the demand for aluminum fluoride was poor, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride increased.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts from the aluminum fluoride industry of the business community believe that the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid will be temporarily stable this week, while the prices of electrolytic aluminum will fall in shock. The cost of aluminum fluoride is temporarily stable, and the demand is not good. The rising power of aluminum fluoride is weakened, and the downward pressure is increased. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will become weak and stable in the future.

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, as of December 21, the average price of 85% domestic industrial formic acid enterprises was 3000.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of last Thursday (December 15).

Recently (12.15-12.21) the market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid kept stable. Recently, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has fallen, the price of raw material methanol has been weak, and the cost support is weak. The downstream inquiry and procurement are moderate. The enterprise mainly ships, the market delivery is orderly, and the negotiation focus continues to operate stably.

Upstream product: upstream sulfuric acid. On December 20, the domestic sulfuric acid market price fell. On December 20, the reference price of sulfuric acid was 296.67, down 5.31% compared with December 15 (313.33); On December 20, the reference price of upstream methanol was 2640.00, down 1.43% compared with December 15 (2678.33).

The formic acid analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support is limited, the supply and demand support is fair, and the market transaction is just in demand. In the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may still be stable, and more attention should be paid to the downstream pre festival stock demand.

This week (12.12-16), domestic butyl acetate continued to decline, and the market was short of good news. It is mainly due to weak demand and weak support of upstream acetic acid and n-butanol. According to the monitoring of the business community, butyl acetate fell 0.86% this week. The domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate on Friday was 7100-7350 yuan/ton.

First of all, from the perspective of cost, the market of acetic acid and n-butanol deviated, acetic acid declined slightly, with a weekly decline of 0.55%, while n-butanol rose strongly, with a weekly increase of 7.23%. However, it is still unable to pull the weak market of supply and demand.

From the perspective of acetic acid, according to the monitoring of the business community, the price of acetic acid continued to decline this week, and the price is still hovering at a low level. Downstream demand downturn is difficult to support prices out of the haze, especially in North China, Northwest and other regions where demand is weak, and the fundamentals are negative, which may be difficult to reverse in the later period.

From the perspective of supply and demand, butyl acetate shows a relatively prominent pressure of supply and demand, and the market shows that both supply and demand are not strong. On the supply side, the operating rate of manufacturers remains low, and the market operating rate is still below 40%. The supply pressure is not large. This week, the prices of butyl acetate manufacturers remained at last week’s level. Downstream demand has not improved significantly. The market trading and investment atmosphere is not good, and most businesses are bearish.

Future market forecast: In the short term, the cost of butyl acetate will improve in the short term. In the later period, n-butanol may drive the rise of butyl ester, but the supply and demand are not strong or the market will be troubled for a long time. The weak shock will continue. In the near future, attention should be paid to the price trend of upstream acetic acid and n-butanol, as well as the commencement of downstream plants.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market rose from 6216.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 6600.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 6.18%. A year-on-year decrease of 21.43%. On December 18, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 33.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 68.27% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 11.22% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market of isobutyraldehyde upstream raw material market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7436.60 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7608.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 2.34%. The upstream raw material market price rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand, it had a positive impact on the isobutyraldehyde price. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly, with the price rising from 8966.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 9166.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 2.23%. Neopentyl glycol market rose slightly, with better downstream demand, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future outlook

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late December may rise slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly and cost support increased. The downstream neopentyl glycol market stopped falling and rose, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business community believe that the isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic market of cyclohexanone is in a stalemate. From December 9 to 16, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market fell from 9200 yuan/ton to 919 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11%. The price fell 4.27% month on month and 10.78% year on year. The raw material pure benzene operates under shock, and the cost is relatively stable. The production enterprises have relatively stable plant start-up and stable market supply. Downstream chemical fiber steel needs to follow up, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.

On the cost side, the price of domestic pure benzene market fluctuated and fell. East China spot traded at 6440-6530 yuan/ton, and Shandong market traded at 6500-6600 yuan/ton. The fundamentals of pure benzene improved, and the market panic eased after new supply. Imports to ships remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The cost of cyclohexanone is hardly favorable.

On the supply side, the current market is relatively abundant. There are positive factors in the supply of cyclohexanone in the short term.

On the demand side, the market price of caprolactam, the main downstream product of cyclohexanone, has risen slightly. Recently, the price of pure benzene has stabilized and consolidated. In the early stage of downstream PA6 slicing, the low price trading atmosphere has improved slightly. The raw materials of polymerization plants are replenished as needed. The seller’s quotation in the caprolactam market has risen and the low price has decreased, and the price center has risen. Caprolactam supply is expected to increase, while demand has not actually improved. The demand side of cyclohexanone is hardly favorable.

The future forecast shows that the cost support is stable, the supply side increases slightly, and the downstream chemical fiber may maintain rigid demand. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business community expected that the short-term domestic cyclohexanone market would be mainly organized.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of December 15, the average price quoted by 85% domestic industrial formic acid enterprises was 3000.00 yuan/ton, which was flat compared with the price on Monday.

This week (12.12-12.15), the market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid was stable. This week, the raw material sulfuric acid was stable first and then rose. The price of raw material methanol was weak, and the cost impact was average. Domestic downstream procurement was mainly based on demand, and the export market was fair. Most enterprises shipped steadily, and the market procurement and sales were orderly.

Upstream product: upstream sulfuric acid. On December 15, the domestic sulfuric acid market price rose. On December 14, the reference price of sulfuric acid was 303.33, a decrease of 5.7% compared with December 1 (321.67); On December 14, the reference price of upstream methanol was 2683.33, which was 0.06% higher than that on December 1 (2681.67).

The formic acid analysts of the business community believe that the current cost impact is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is mild, and the transaction is orderly. In the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may be dominated by stability, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic BDO market still occupies the first place, the actual order delivery and investment are light, and the focus of the negotiation is weak. From December 2 to 9, the average weekly price of domestic BDO manufacturers remained at 9716 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 9436 yuan/ton at the weekend. During the cycle, the price fell 2.88%, 29.05% month on month and 69.56% year on year. The early maintenance devices of the production enterprises have been started successively, and the market supply has increased correspondingly, while the downstream demand continues to be sluggish, and the operating rate of enterprises in the downstream industry is low, so the digestion of raw material BDO has been greatly reduced.

On the cost side, raw calcium carbide: the business community monitored that the domestic calcium carbide price fell in shock. The price at the beginning of the week was kept at 3800 yuan/ton, and at the weekend it was kept at 3767 yuan/ton, down 0.86%. In terms of methanol, the business community monitored that the price of domestic methanol in East China ports fell first and then rose in a narrow range, with 2670 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2680 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price rose 0.37% during the cycle. In the near future, there are few positive factors in the carbide and methanol markets, and the BDO cost support is weak.

On the supply side, Henan Hemei, Yizheng Dalian and Xinjiang Meike Phase III units are in shutdown state, and a set of units in Xinjiang Lanshantunhe River is expected to be overhauled in the middle of December. The time is uncertain, and there is no planned change in other units. At present, there is no good on the supply side, and short-term parking enterprises will not start construction. If they start construction, negative factors on the supply side will increase.

On the demand side, the load of PTMEG industry dropped to about 60%, but some enterprises are about to start early maintenance equipment, and the demand has increased. The overall operating rate of the PBT industry has risen again, and the digestion of raw materials will increase; The overall change in BDO demand was slightly positive.

It is predicted in the future that the downstream rigid demand has consumed a part of the social inventory by means of reducing the load of enterprise devices and reducing the supply of goods for external auction through maintenance. At present, the supply of goods on hand of traders has decreased compared with the previous period. Business agency BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market is expected to stabilize.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the price of domestic urea market fell slightly this week, from 2790.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2744.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 1.65%, 11.82% higher than the same period last year. On December 11, the urea commodity index was 127.63, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.21% from the highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15) in the cycle, and up 129.55% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Good cost support, weak downstream demand and tight urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of urea in China fell this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream market of urea this week as a whole saw a sharp rise: the price of LNG rose sharply, from 5010.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7194.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 43.59%, 42.74% year-on-year; The price of anthracite was consolidated at a high level, and the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing block) was 1710 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4773.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4890.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 2.44%, and 10.88% compared with the same period last year. Upstream raw materials rose significantly, and the price support for urea increased. The price of melamine at the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 8333.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 8266.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, down 0.80%.

In terms of demand, agricultural demand is average, and industrial demand is normal. The operation rate of compound fertilizer plant is high, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is good. The board and melamine enterprises started in general, and just needed to purchase. Downstream has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high priced urea, and procurement slows down. In terms of supply, some units in Shanxi resumed production, some gas enterprises stopped for maintenance, and the daily urea output was about 150000 tons.

Mainly up slightly in the future

The domestic urea market may rise slightly in mid to late December. According to the urea analysts of the business community, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea rose slightly, and the urea cost support increased. The downstream agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is normal, the export orders are orderly promoted, and the urea supply is tight. In the future, urea rose mainly in a narrow range.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda was temporarily stable this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1104 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 1108 yuan/ton. The price rose 0.36%, 41.15% higher than the same period last year. On December 11, the caustic soda commodity index was 159.42, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.95% from the highest point of 265.47 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 144.85% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business community, the domestic caustic soda price was temporarily stable this week. The average market price in Shandong is about 1070-1180 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda mainstream in Hebei is about 1100-1200 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in the market is in a stalemate, and the market turnover is average recently,. However, the downstream market is mainly wait-and-see, and more cautious purchasing. However, due to the close of the New Year, there are downstream enterprises to stock up, which supports the price of caustic soda.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 2 kinds of rising commodities, 3 kinds of falling commodities, and 0 kind of zero rising or falling commodities in the list of prices of chlor alkali industry in the 49th week of 2022 (12.5-12.9). The main commodities that rose were caustic soda (0.36%) and light soda ash (0.08%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (-2.25%), calcium carbide (-0.44%) and PVC (-0.14%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.48%.

Analysts from the business community believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda is in a stalemate, the downstream alumina procurement demand is general, the procurement mood is not high, the wait-and-see operation is the main, the procurement is cautious, and it is comprehensively expected that caustic soda will be put into operation next week, depending on the downstream market demand.