Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the price of domestic urea market fell slightly this week, from 2790.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2744.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 1.65%, 11.82% higher than the same period last year. On December 11, the urea commodity index was 127.63, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.21% from the highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15) in the cycle, and up 129.55% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Good cost support, weak downstream demand and tight urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of urea in China fell this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream market of urea this week as a whole saw a sharp rise: the price of LNG rose sharply, from 5010.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7194.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 43.59%, 42.74% year-on-year; The price of anthracite was consolidated at a high level, and the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing block) was 1710 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4773.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4890.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 2.44%, and 10.88% compared with the same period last year. Upstream raw materials rose significantly, and the price support for urea increased. The price of melamine at the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 8333.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 8266.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, down 0.80%.

In terms of demand, agricultural demand is average, and industrial demand is normal. The operation rate of compound fertilizer plant is high, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is good. The board and melamine enterprises started in general, and just needed to purchase. Downstream has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high priced urea, and procurement slows down. In terms of supply, some units in Shanxi resumed production, some gas enterprises stopped for maintenance, and the daily urea output was about 150000 tons.

Mainly up slightly in the future

The domestic urea market may rise slightly in mid to late December. According to the urea analysts of the business community, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea rose slightly, and the urea cost support increased. The downstream agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is normal, the export orders are orderly promoted, and the urea supply is tight. In the future, urea rose mainly in a narrow range.