Acetone rose first and then fell in October. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the mainstream offer of the East China market was 6800 yuan / ton after the festival, while in the middle of the month, the East China market rose to 7500 yuan / ton, and the market in East China increased by more than 10% in the first half of the month. However, the overall trend of decline in the next month was not long, and the low-end prices of 6500-6600 yuan / ton appeared in the morning of the 29th However, on the afternoon of the 29th, with the decrease of port inventory, the downstream inquiry increased rapidly, and the actual order purchase filled the market one after another. On the 30th, the last trading day in October, the port inventory dropped to 13000 tons. The early offers from the shipholders were less, and the sporadic offers were mostly around 7100 yuan / ton. It was heard that the market transaction was also between 6800 and 7000 yuan / ton 。 It was expected that October would finish smoothly under the condition of poor demand and low supply pressure, but the market was volatile, with the acetone market soaring by 7.58% on the last trading day.

At present, the mainstream factories offer 6700-6800 yuan / ton, while in the market, the offer in East China is 7100 yuan / ton, that in South China is 7400 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong and around Yanshan is 7200 yuan / ton.

From the point of view of the products themselves, as the weathervane of the national market, the negotiated price in East China once fell to 6500 yuan / ton, while the market rose sharply at the end of the month. At present, the operating rate of downstream factories is relatively high, and most of the downstream products have a good profit margin. Especially in the current special period, the pharmaceutical industry continues to improve, and the demand for acetone is continuous, and the port inventory drops to 13000 tons at the end of the month Under the condition that the quantity of factories is average, the demand is slightly improved and the market is greatly higher.

Market forecast: after the domestic acetone market fell, the market rebounded sharply. Next month, lihuayi phase II and Zhejiang Petrochemical products are expected to be listed, and the terminal procurement will be promoted steadily. It is expected that the acetone market will be stable in the short term, with an offer of about 7000 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of steam coal has been stable for the time being. On October 29, the average port price of steam coal remained at 607 yuan / ton, while on October 1, the average price of steam coal was 611.25 yuan / ton, down 0.7%, and the price was 6.44% higher than last year.

On October 28, the commodity index of steam coal was 73.13, down 0.06 points compared with yesterday, 29.01% lower than 103.01 points (2011-11-15), and 63.60% higher than 44.70 points, the lowest point on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of origin, Shanxi area large mine association shipping, coal prices are strong. The overall sales of lump coal in Inner Mongolia is good. In Yulin, Shaanxi Province, 17 new coal mines have withdrawn from the production capacity, and the downstream demand is still strong, and the coal price is expected to be strong.

Downstream power plants: entering the fourth quarter, the demand for electric coal is strong in winter peak season, and the inventory decreases rapidly. The centralized procurement of power plants leads to the rapid rise of coal price. However, with the continuous winter storage and replenishment of the previous period of time, the coal inventory of power plants increased, and the pace of market replenishment slowed down, which limited the short-term demand for steam coal and had a negative impact on the market sentiment. At present, the mainstream closing price of 5500 kcal steam coal is about 605-610 yuan / ton.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to September, 2.79 billion tons of raw coal were produced, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. In September, the production of raw coal was 330 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, an increase of 0.8% over the previous month; the average daily output was 11.04 million tons, with an increase of 530000 tons on a month on month basis.

Business agency analysts believe: short term non electric terminal production will still be in the peak season, the north will gradually enter the heating season, thermal power production and electricity coal consumption demand will be improved. The daily consumption of power plants in southern China is high, and there are few import quotas left in coastal areas. It is predicted that the short-term steam coal price will be stronger and the operation will be mainly based on the downstream market demand.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic polyester filament market rebounded strongly in October, among which polyester DTY increased the most, with 150D / 48F low elasticity increasing by 8.94% in the same month, followed by polyester POY and polyester DTY, with increases of 6.36% and 4.51% respectively.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market in October, unit: yuan / ton

Products up and down from October 1, 2020 to October 28, 2020

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) 6570.00 7157.50 8.94% – 19.53%

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5156.00-5484.00 6.36% – 23.56%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5548.33 5798.33 4.51% – 22.41%

The demand side started and ushered in the “silver 10″ market. During the national day, the rebound of oil price provided the initial power for the price increase of polyester filament industry chain, and then the demand side got favorable support. Orders from overseas textile industry are flowing into China, and the textile and clothing markets at home and abroad are picking up sharply as the “double 11″, Christmas, Spring Festival and other festivals are approaching. According to the latest data of the General Administration of customs, in September 2020, the export of textiles and clothing reached 28.37 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.2%, including 13.15 billion US dollars of textile exports, an increase of 35.8%, and 15.22 billion US dollars of clothing exports, an increase of 6.2%.

In addition, this year’s cold winter is expected to make the market better in autumn cashmere fabric shipment, home textile, winter warm clothing and other market demand, factory orders are mostly maintained until early November. For example, in the traditional market of China Light and Textile City, the varieties of new fashion fabrics and leisure top fabrics in autumn and winter increased, and the transaction volume of many varieties increased. It is understood that local production and sales recovered from October 6 to 9. The average production and sales of major polyester filament manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions were 140% – 160%, and the production and sales of some higher enterprises were more than 300%. In the first trading day after the festival, both the volume and price of polyester filament rose, especially DTY. The price went up all the way, with an increase of nearly 10% as of the 22nd compared with the beginning of the month.

However, as the winter fabric procurement is basically exhausted, the order situation of replenishment is not enough to maintain the market growth. At the same time, weak crude oil finishing, PTA new production capacity put into production, resulting in a small decline in the price of polyester filament. The average production and sales of major factories are between 50% and 70%, and the production and sales of some better factories can reach 100%. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 27-39 days, of which POY inventory is up to 9-17 days, FDY inventory is around 20-39 days, and DTY inventory is about 28-39 days.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the current peak season of overall demand is coming to an end, and it will usher in the traditional off-season in November. Moreover, the epidemic situation in foreign countries is still severe. Some countries and regions in Europe and the United States once again take restrictive measures. There is still great uncertainty in the demand recovery. Textile enterprises also have concerns. They adopt the business strategy of more market-oriented atmosphere and production according to order.

In addition, the current raw material PTA market, crude oil is weak finishing, downstream polyester speculation ends, new capacity production price drops. In the future, it will face the pressure of new capacity release, and there is no inventory inflection point in inventory. As of October 23, the social inventory was about 3.5 million tons, which was at the high level in the same period from 2016 to 2019. It is expected that the social inventory will continue to accumulate in November and December. Overall, market supply remained loose expectations, and the upward drive was still insufficient.

On the whole, there are more bad news released in the polyester filament Market in November, and all parties have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Purchasers are cautious, and there may be a risk of price falling.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the market of acrylic acid is weak. As of October 27, the average price of acrylic acid quoted in East China was 10566.67 yuan / ton, down 0.31% compared with last Tuesday (October 20) and increased by 9.31% compared with September 27, according to the data of the bulk list of business agencies. At present, the price of raw material propylene is falling, the cost support is weakened, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry is not high, the transaction is limited, and the market atmosphere is light.

Upstream propylene, on October 26, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to decline. According to the price chart of the business agency, since October 1, the price of propylene has remained stable on the whole, with some enterprises’ prices rising and falling slightly this week. On Friday, only a few enterprises’ prices fell slightly. Most enterprises continued to hold steady, but fell about 200 yuan / ton from 17 to 19, a small range from 20 to 23, and an obvious downward trend appeared again at the weekend (October 24 and 25), and 200 yuan / ton on the 26th At present, the market turnover is between 7075 and 7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7100 yuan / ton. Now the pressure of shipment is increasing.

3、 Future forecast

Acrylic acid analysts of the business community believe that at present, the raw material support is weakened, the downstream buying gas is insufficient, and the market transaction is limited. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the recent market price of domestic PP in late October was slightly volatile, and the offer was mainly sorted out. Spot prices of some brands have risen slightly. As of Monday, October 26, the main offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic producers and traders was around 8150 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0%, which was 1.66% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of the causes

The domestic (Shandong) market of propylene in the upstream of PP was settled smoothly in the first half of October, and it began to decline in the next half. As of October 26, the average price of sample enterprises was 7245.45 yuan / ton, and it is currently the lowest in the month. In the first half of the month, some propylene plants were overhauled, and the overall supply was tight. But there was a large amount of goods flowing in the northeast region last weekend, the pressure of manufacturers and dealers increased, and the operation was inclined to make profit delivery. Downstream continued a small number of low-cost procurement as the main, market investment atmosphere is weak. The price of crude oil in the far upstream fell over the weekend. At present, the regional supply volume of propylene is increased, but the consumption in the downstream is generally in conflict with high price goods. Previously, the price of propylene has been at a relatively high level, so it is expected that the price of propylene will be mainly reduced in the near future.

Propylene prices fell last weekend, and support for PP cost end was weakened. According to data monitored by the business agency, the PP market last week was stable. The demand of downstream after saving is at a high level, which supports spot price. In terms of inventory, the accumulated stock of petrochemical stocks in recent years is beyond expectations, but the inventory level is still in a moderate position in the season, and the port inventory is still low. The increase before the festival has gradually caused high pressure on PP in the near future. After the weekend, the price of drawing film, transparent film and pipe in petrochemical plant has been reduced slightly. The crude oil in the far upstream also has a small drop, which has certain suppression on the chemical industry chain. In terms of demand, the downstream inquiry mood is not high, and the focus of the investment is near the low price. The demand for the external market is mixed, while the demand for some automobile, bottle cap and closure parts industry is strong, while the membrane market has a general response. Analysts are worried about new capacity that could be released by the end of October or will have a shock on the PP market.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of October 26, the main price of Z30S (fiber) of domestic producers and traders was about 8283.33 yuan / ton. The average price level of the month was 0.80% lower. The early high of the month appeared at 8383.33 yuan / ton on the 14th, and the overall operation was stable in the first half of the month. In recent years, the average starting rate of domestic PP producers has fallen by about 3% compared with that before the saving period, but in the short term, many enterprises have a resumption plan, and the expected start rate will rise slightly. Futures Volatility gradually increased, manufacturers have factory prices also reduced, the mentality of the industry is affected. Business operation is cautious, downstream side just need to prepare goods, mentality to wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that PP (fiber) will have weak disk surface in the near future.

The market of PP melt spray material was stable and small in mid October, and the overall confidence of domestic PP melt injection material market was still poor. According to the data monitored by the business society, PP (melt spray) material has been adjusted in shock since October. As of October 26, the average price of sample enterprises is about 14433.33 yuan / ton. At present, the epidemic situation in China is generally stable, and relevant experts have led to consolidate the epidemic prevention measures in recent years to prevent the rebound. Last week and this week, Shandong and Xinjiang are tentatively classified as medium and high-risk areas, and demand will follow, which is not yet reflected in spot prices. The overseas epidemic situation is still deteriorating, the non-woven fabric in medical protection applications continues to be sought after, and demand is expected to rise. But the competition of domestic anti epidemic products manufacturers is still strong, and the profit dilution of domestic main downstream enterprises of spray melting material is serious. At present, PP (melt injection) price is low, and it is expected that the melt spray material will be recovered due to the expansion of demand in the near future.

Post market forecast

PP analysts of business agency think: the domestic PP spot market is generally stable. The upstream propylene market was down at a high level, the price decreased, and the support for PP cost end was weakened. PP (drawing) supply volume is still not up, PP (fiber) market shock finishing, PP (melt spray) demand has a rise in expectations, prices are big, stable and small move. At present, the reduction of petrochemical inventory has slowed down and has a small increase. The futures trend amplitude is expanding today, which is not good for spot. Downstream factory stock situation is still OK, business mentality is affected, offer individual drop. The expected increase in the operating rate may lead to the gradual increase of spot supply of PP, and the market may be weak.

This week (10.19-23), the domestic polysilicon price continued to slow down, domestic market and imported material prices showed varying degrees of decline, according to the business agency monitoring, polysilicon fell by 3.4% this week. The main reason is that with more and more enterprises returning to work, the supply side has changed from tight to abundant.

After the national day, the domestic polysilicon market began to decline, this week is to continue the previous trend. In terms of supply, at present, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers has rebounded. Up to now, about 11 domestic polysilicon manufacturers have maintained about 3 maintenance or load reduction start-up. The production capacity in Xinjiang has been gradually restored, and the supply has slightly increased compared with the previous period. However, the inventory of most enterprises is on the high side at present, but the manufacturers are also speeding up the process of digestion recently, and the enterprises continue to sign orders. The orders are basically finished in October, and large factories begin to sign new orders in November. This mainly depends on the stability of the current demand. In September, the upstream and downstream enterprises of silicon materials have been in the process of price game, and the downstream purchase intention is reduced, but the silicon material inventory consumption is obvious. Therefore, the downstream gradually recovers the willingness to take goods to replenish the warehouse, and adds to the recent inventory backlog of silicon material manufacturers. Although the price is still relatively high, it still has the behavior of reducing the price to inventory Tourism procurement increased. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic mainstream transaction price of polysilicon with the model of first-class solar material is 60000-65000 yuan / ton, and the price of polysilicon in non China area is 70000-73000 yuan / ton.

In the near future, polysilicon will maintain a basic balance between supply and demand, and the medium-term market may enter a pattern of loose supply. In particular, with the further tightening of the export of photovoltaic products, downstream demand may be relatively low. It is expected that the price of polysilicon will be affected by it, and it is not ruled out that it may continue to fall.

Note: the above price is tax inclusive

This week, the domestic liquid ammonia market remained stable in most regions, Hebei continued to maintain the steady state last week, and the price in Shandong ended its rising market. This week, it is mainly seen that it is stable. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream market quotation in Shandong is 2900-3000 yuan / ton.

The price of liquid ammonia in Shandong remained stable this week, with stable supply from large factories, normal operation of the plant, and reasonable inventory pressure. Affected by the overall stability of domestic urea market, especially limited production in Shanxi and some other regions, the operating rate decreased and supply brought some support. Liquid ammonia was obviously slightly better than urea, and enterprises also preferred to produce liquid ammonia. From the downstream, the current agricultural fertilizer off-season, the terminal wait-and-see do not pick up goods, many places have prices and no market, which makes the liquid ammonia did not continue the last week’s rise.

In other regions, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong has stabilized, and the outflow of ammonia in Shandong is not as large as expected, so the impact on Hebei is not obvious. Therefore, the prices of manufacturers in Hebei maintain the steady state of the previous week, and there is no significant change in prices. The range of rise and fall is about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the Cangzhou unit of a plant in Hebei still produces a small amount of liquid ammonia, so the pressure is not big. This is also an important factor to balance the supply and demand of the region. The liquid ammonia quantity in the region basically maintains a balance between supply and demand, and the current price is 2950-3100 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the future market, the business agency believes that the majority of enterprises reported stable liquid ammonia Market over the weekend, and continued to be stable for a week, indicating the lack of upward momentum in the market, especially in the current low season of downstream fertilizer. Therefore, there is a certain risk of decline in liquid ammonia. The price range of liquid ammonia has fluctuated since the festival, and there is no big market. It is expected that the domestic ammonia volume will remain moderate in the short term In the near future, the domestic liquid ammonia market is still dominated by range consolidation, and there may be some differentiation in the trend of various regions. In the regions affected by the production restriction policy, the prices may be firmer. However, most manufacturers in the region may accumulate in the later stage, which will affect the price of liquid ammonia to fall. In addition, the market is mainly affected by large-scale plants, which does not exclude the impact of equipment maintenance on the price. On the demand side, the downstream demand is rigidly stable. In the current off-season market, the downstream demand may shrink, and the downstream operating rate is expected to gradually decrease in the later stage. Considering comprehensively, the liquid ammonia will maintain stability in the near future, and there is a downward risk in the medium and long term prices.

1、 Price trend of formic acid

(Figure: P value curve of formic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been running steadily. As of October 22, the average price quoted by formic acid enterprises was 2133.33 yuan / ton, up 3.23% compared with last Thursday (October 15) and 25% higher than that of August 22, according to the large list data of business agency. The manufacturers and distributors’ devices are in normal operation. The downstream potassium formate and calcium formate industry demand is stable. The formic acid procurement is steadily followed up. The pharmaceutical industry mainly receives orders periodically. The market transaction is fair, and the formic acid market is stable and rising.

According to the data monitoring of business agencies, some enterprises’ formic acid prices are summarized as follows: the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2000 yuan / ton, that of Jintan local industrial supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. is 2400 yuan / T, and that of Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2200 yuan / T. the spot price of merchants is in line with the market, The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

For the upstream caustic soda, on October 21, the price of caustic soda in Shandong was relatively strong. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda was 450-530 yuan / ton. October is the traditional peak season, and the demand side of caustic soda has certain support. At the same time, October is also the maintenance peak period, so the supply side may tighten. It is predicted that the short-term caustic soda price may be stronger; the upstream liquid ammonia market will rise slightly in the near future (10.01-10.21); the upstream sulfuric acid market will rise slightly in Shandong Province in the near future (10.01-10.21), and the upstream sulfur market will rise slightly in the near future, with good cost support, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, the sulfuric acid supply is normal, and the factory price of sulfuric acid in the future market will fluctuate slightly As of October 21, the average price quoted by enterprises was 1932.50 yuan / ton, up 7.66% compared with October 1.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on October 21, 2020, there were 18 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities that increased were butadiene (5.10%), formic acid (3.23%) and hydrogen peroxide (3.11%). There were 7 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, with R22 (- 4.60%), TDI (- 0.96%) and bisphenol A (- 0.79%). The average rise or fall was 0.2%.

3、 Future forecast

Formic acid analysts of the business community believe that in the near future, the raw material prices are stable and strong, and the downstream demand is steadily followed up. It is expected that the industrial grade formic acid market will be mainly stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of October 21, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream areas was around 11434 yuan / ton, which was increased by 67 yuan / ton or 0.59% compared with October 1.

At present, the domestic market of n-propanol is stable in many regions. Dealers in some regions adjust the ex factory price of n-propanol in a narrow range, and the adjustment range is around 100-300 yuan / ton. The market is characterized by “big stability and small movement”. At present, the downstream demand is normal, and the purchase of rigid demand is dominated, and large order transactions are limited. The domestic trade of n-propanol mainly supplied contract users, the inventory remained tight, and the factory sales pressure was small, which supported the high-level quotation of n-propanol. As of the 21st, the reference price of n-propanol bulk water in Shandong was 10500-10800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream offer price including packaging was about 11300-115000 yuan / ton, with little adjustment. In Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., the production unit of n-propanol started normally and shipped normally. The ex factory price of n-propanol bulk water is 10000 yuan / T.

In terms of raw materials, after the double festival, the external price of ethylene showed an overall upward trend. The average price of ethylene on the 8th day was 757.75 USD / T, and the 15th day was 773.00 USD / T, up 2.01%. The price rose by 5.17% month on month, and the price decreased by 11.91% year on year. In the past two days, the external price of ethylene has been up and down. As of the 20th day, the price of ethylene market in Europe has been both up and down. FD northwest Europe quoted 710-723 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton; CIF northwest Europe quoted 701-710 US dollars / ton, up 1 US dollars / ton. The recent market demand is the same. The Asian ethylene market is mainly stable, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 835-845 US dollars / ton, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 810-820 US dollars / ton. In the rise of American ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted 490-502 US dollars / ton, up 11 US dollars / ton. The recent US ethylene market is mainly up, and the demand is fair.

Internationally, on October 20, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.70/barrel, up $0.64. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.16/barrel, up $0.54. International oil prices rose by more than 1% on Tuesday, mainly due to market expectations that a new US stimulus policy for the epidemic is close to being reached. However, the surge in the number of new cases of the global epidemic has slowed down the recovery expectations of most economies, and the increase in Libya’s oil production has limited the room for oil prices to rise.

The price fluctuation is limited after n-propanol is put into operation

At present, the downstream procurement of n-propanol in China is normal. Under the support of raw materials, the price fluctuation of n-propanol is limited. In addition, most of the demand customers are contracted relatively stable. Therefore, the analysts of n-propanol from the business agency believe that the domestic n-propanol market will still maintain a high and stable operation in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the cost of raw materials and the supply of goods in the future.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average market price of coking coal in North China on October 20 was about 1366.67 yuan / ton, down 9.79% from the same period last year. The price of coking coal is mainly stable.

On October 19, the coking coal commodity index was 100.86, unchanged with yesterday, down 17.01% from 121.53 (2019-03-12), and 124.58% higher than 44.91, the lowest point on January 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

According to the business agency, the safety inspection in Shanxi Province has been strengthened recently, and the coal enterprises are still stable in operation. At present, the pace of coal enterprises’ shipment is speeding up, and the inventory of low sulfur main coke is declining. At the present stage, the coke enterprises start to operate well, the demand for coking coal is better, and the overall operation of coking coal is relatively strong.

Demand: on the downstream side, the price of coke is mainly stable for the time being. Some coke enterprises in Shanxi have started the fifth round of increase, with a range of 50 yuan / ton. At present, the environmental protection policy is loose, the profits of enterprises are high, the coking enterprises start higher, the production is active, and the coke inventory is mainly low. At present, the operation of the downstream is normal and has not been affected by the environmental protection policy. The demand for coke is good and the replenishment is active. In terms of port, the supply of goods is still tight, the price is stable temporarily, and the market inquiry is positive. Affected by the shortage of supply, the sales are average. In the future, the market is mainly stable and strong.

According to the coking coal analysts of the business society, the price of coke is mainly stable for the time being. Some coke enterprises in Shanxi Province have started the fifth round of increase, with a range of 50 yuan / ton. At present, coking enterprises start higher, production is active, coke inventory is low. The downstream purchase of coking coal has increased significantly. Generally speaking, coking coal is expected to operate in a short term or strong way in the short term.