According to the data monitored by the business agency, the recent market price of domestic PP in late October was slightly volatile, and the offer was mainly sorted out. Spot prices of some brands have risen slightly. As of Monday, October 26, the main offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic producers and traders was around 8150 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0%, which was 1.66% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of the causes

The domestic (Shandong) market of propylene in the upstream of PP was settled smoothly in the first half of October, and it began to decline in the next half. As of October 26, the average price of sample enterprises was 7245.45 yuan / ton, and it is currently the lowest in the month. In the first half of the month, some propylene plants were overhauled, and the overall supply was tight. But there was a large amount of goods flowing in the northeast region last weekend, the pressure of manufacturers and dealers increased, and the operation was inclined to make profit delivery. Downstream continued a small number of low-cost procurement as the main, market investment atmosphere is weak. The price of crude oil in the far upstream fell over the weekend. At present, the regional supply volume of propylene is increased, but the consumption in the downstream is generally in conflict with high price goods. Previously, the price of propylene has been at a relatively high level, so it is expected that the price of propylene will be mainly reduced in the near future.

Propylene prices fell last weekend, and support for PP cost end was weakened. According to data monitored by the business agency, the PP market last week was stable. The demand of downstream after saving is at a high level, which supports spot price. In terms of inventory, the accumulated stock of petrochemical stocks in recent years is beyond expectations, but the inventory level is still in a moderate position in the season, and the port inventory is still low. The increase before the festival has gradually caused high pressure on PP in the near future. After the weekend, the price of drawing film, transparent film and pipe in petrochemical plant has been reduced slightly. The crude oil in the far upstream also has a small drop, which has certain suppression on the chemical industry chain. In terms of demand, the downstream inquiry mood is not high, and the focus of the investment is near the low price. The demand for the external market is mixed, while the demand for some automobile, bottle cap and closure parts industry is strong, while the membrane market has a general response. Analysts are worried about new capacity that could be released by the end of October or will have a shock on the PP market.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of October 26, the main price of Z30S (fiber) of domestic producers and traders was about 8283.33 yuan / ton. The average price level of the month was 0.80% lower. The early high of the month appeared at 8383.33 yuan / ton on the 14th, and the overall operation was stable in the first half of the month. In recent years, the average starting rate of domestic PP producers has fallen by about 3% compared with that before the saving period, but in the short term, many enterprises have a resumption plan, and the expected start rate will rise slightly. Futures Volatility gradually increased, manufacturers have factory prices also reduced, the mentality of the industry is affected. Business operation is cautious, downstream side just need to prepare goods, mentality to wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that PP (fiber) will have weak disk surface in the near future.

The market of PP melt spray material was stable and small in mid October, and the overall confidence of domestic PP melt injection material market was still poor. According to the data monitored by the business society, PP (melt spray) material has been adjusted in shock since October. As of October 26, the average price of sample enterprises is about 14433.33 yuan / ton. At present, the epidemic situation in China is generally stable, and relevant experts have led to consolidate the epidemic prevention measures in recent years to prevent the rebound. Last week and this week, Shandong and Xinjiang are tentatively classified as medium and high-risk areas, and demand will follow, which is not yet reflected in spot prices. The overseas epidemic situation is still deteriorating, the non-woven fabric in medical protection applications continues to be sought after, and demand is expected to rise. But the competition of domestic anti epidemic products manufacturers is still strong, and the profit dilution of domestic main downstream enterprises of spray melting material is serious. At present, PP (melt injection) price is low, and it is expected that the melt spray material will be recovered due to the expansion of demand in the near future.

Post market forecast

PP analysts of business agency think: the domestic PP spot market is generally stable. The upstream propylene market was down at a high level, the price decreased, and the support for PP cost end was weakened. PP (drawing) supply volume is still not up, PP (fiber) market shock finishing, PP (melt spray) demand has a rise in expectations, prices are big, stable and small move. At present, the reduction of petrochemical inventory has slowed down and has a small increase. The futures trend amplitude is expanding today, which is not good for spot. Downstream factory stock situation is still OK, business mentality is affected, offer individual drop. The expected increase in the operating rate may lead to the gradual increase of spot supply of PP, and the market may be weak.