Although the market expects limited supply growth in October, demand remains weak and there is still little possibility of a rebound in transaction volume. Although domestic acrylonitrile plants have been reducing their load since August, with production dropping to around 63% at one point, the production in August still increased by 20000 tons compared to the same period last year, resulting in oversupply in the market. Therefore, manufacturers currently have sufficient inventory. In addition, although the profitability of downstream ABS manufacturers has improved, the increase in operating load of the devices is limited, and some new devices have not increased their load as expected, resulting in limited overall demand growth. The overall market presents a situation of sufficient supply but insufficient demand, and there is a lack of price action.

At present, the price difference between the north and south markets still exists, and multiple acrylonitrile plants in the south are undergoing production reduction or maintenance, leading to a tightening of supply and firm offers from manufacturers. But the northern region is operating at full capacity, and under the pressure of shipment, the focus of transactions continues to decline. With the gradual restart of the early maintenance equipment and the increase in on-site supply, prices in the south will also be dragged down by the north, and the focus of transactions may decline accordingly.

In terms of cost, multiple units such as a PDH unit in Jiangsu and an MTO unit in Nanjing have been shut down for maintenance. The spot circulation of propylene in East China is not large, and the supply pattern remains tight. It is expected that the East China market will remain stable and strong in the short term, and the cost pressure of acrylonitrile still exists.

In terms of demand, downstream ABS has returned from the National Day holiday, and the second production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II is gradually achieving mass production. Jilin Petrochemical’s plant has restarted, and Zhangjiagang Shengxiao ABS plant has restarted, resulting in a slight increase in demand. However, in terms of downstream acrylic fiber, multiple facilities such as Ningbo Zhongxin, Hangzhou Bay, and Jilin Chemical Fiber have been shut down for maintenance, resulting in a significant reduction in demand. The overall demand is still insufficient

Market expectation: Overall, the price difference between the north and south will continue to exist in the short term, but the continued weakness of downstream demand will also drag down transaction prices in the East China region. However, considering the current significant losses in the acrylonitrile industry, the downward space is limited, and the short-term acrylonitrile market will mainly experience weak fluctuations.