According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market continued to decline from October 14 to 21, 2024. On October 14th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6200 yuan/ton, and on October 21st, the benchmark price of toluene was 5850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.65% during the period. This cycle coincided with the National Day holiday, during which the external market continued to rise. The toluene market made up for the post holiday gains, and the overall ex factory prices of main refineries increased. However, downstream follow-up was insufficient and lacked demand support, resulting in weak growth in the toluene market. After the holiday, there were more arrivals in the port market, and market supply increased. Under the influence of sufficient supply, the toluene market rose and then fell back, and the overall trading in the spot market was weak. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong.

Cost wise: As of the 18th, international crude oil futures closed down, with the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States at $68.69 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.06 per barrel. The recent trend of crude oil prices has fallen, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is controllable. In addition, the future demand for crude oil market is worrying, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market; However, the recent decline in US crude oil inventories still provides support for the crude oil market, resulting in a slight decrease in overall crude oil market prices.

Supply side: Sinopec toluene quotation situation: Currently, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, the products are mostly self used, and the production and sales are stable. As of October 21st, East China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5900-5950 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5900 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On October 21st, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7600 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the price on October 14th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of October 18th, the closing price of the xylene market in Asia increased by $10/ton, with a closing price of $823-825/ton FOB Korea and $848-850/ton CFR China.

On Friday (October 18th), the Asian toluene market closed higher: the FOB South Korean closing price in October was 712-714 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton; The closing price of CFR China in October is 709-711 US dollars per ton, an increase of 9 US dollars per ton.

Market forecast: In the near future, the toluene market will be less affected by crude oil and mainly affected by supply and demand. The market supply has significantly increased recently, and refineries are actively reducing prices to sell their accumulated inventory. Downstream demand will basically maintain on-demand procurement, and gasoline demand in some areas will perform well. However, overall, there is still support on the demand side. It is expected that the toluene market will remain stable in the short term, with minor fluctuations during the week.