1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of April 16th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4730 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.64% compared to the same period last week, and an increase of 1.99% compared to the same period last month. Currently, the mainstream price range in the market is around 4700-4800 yuan/ton. The upstream cost side is well supported, and the downstream demand is not decreasing. The overall market transaction atmosphere is positive. The upstream methanol is relatively strong, and some enterprises have shut down their facilities, resulting in a decrease in supply, leading to a narrow price range.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of cost: Since April, the overall shipment of upstream methanol has been good, and there has been no pressure on inventory to operate at a low level. Business owners have a positive attitude, and the bidding situation of enterprises is good. In the Guanzhong region, maintenance plans have been announced, and methanol prices are dominant. There is a shortage on the supply side, and there is a clear atmosphere of price support in the Shanxi region. The market transaction atmosphere is positive, while in the Hebei region, prices are dominant. However, the overall market demand is limited, and it is expected that the domestic methanol market will be mainly strong in the short term. In early April, the upstream liquid ammonia price showed a broad upward trend, with a price increase of more than 4% in half a month. Due to the upward trend in the prices of dual upstream products in early April, strong support was formed on the DMF cost side, and.

In terms of supply: Currently, there is not much change in the supply side, and inventory is operating at a low level without pressure. Price adjustment is the main trend, while downstream operating rates are stable. Demand side is still acceptable, with small orders as the main focus and limited quantities of large orders.

DMF Historical Price Monitoring: Currently, the price monitoring levels of DMF are 1-year medium low, two-year low, and three-year low. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average DMF price in the past year is 4880 yuan/ton, with a median value of 5000 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 4525 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 5475 yuan/ton. The bottom price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past year) is 205 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past year) is -745 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Technical prediction: In the short term, DMF may maintain its current trend with limited upward space

The future market of DMF may maintain its current trend, with a focus on stable and strong operations, with limited upward space. Since March 10, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 16, 2024, it is estimated that the probability of a change in the operating trend within the next 7 days (i.e., the 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) is 49.47%. Currently, this probability is similar, and it is expected that the DMF market will maintain its current narrow range and strong adjustment in the near future.

In summary, currently the cost side is dominated by upstream prices, and equipment maintenance provides favorable support for DMF. In addition, with the upcoming May Day holiday, downstream demand for replenishment is clearly driven. It is expected that the DMF market will mainly operate at high prices in the short term, with a focus on negotiations at a high level. The mainstream price is around 4800-5000 yuan/ton.