1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 25th, the average price quoted by domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 3940 yuan/ton, indicating an overall oversupply in the market and insufficient downstream demand, resulting in a lack of motivation for price increases.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of the market, the supply side is loose and there is overcapacity. The total domestic DMF production capacity has increased from 910000 tons/year in 2021 to 1.77 million tons/year in 2025, an increase of over 94%. However, the slow growth of downstream demand has led to a long-term oversupply in the market. Although the industry’s operating rate remains at a low level of around 40%, inventory remains high, and there is significant pressure on companies to ship. Downstream demand is weak, and support is insufficient. DMF’s largest downstream is PU pulp (accounting for about 59%), which is applied in consumer fields such as luggage and shoes, and is significantly affected by macroeconomic factors; The demand for industries such as electronics (20%) and pharmaceuticals (11%) is mainly based on “essential procurement”, lacking the motivation for large-scale replenishment. The overall demand presents the characteristics of “not strong during peak season and weaker during off-season”.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, DMF prices will mainly remain stable, with a small range of price fluctuations and narrow fluctuations.