According to the price data from Shengyi Society, as of August 15th, the average sales price of PET was 5947 yuan/ton, and the overall price of polyester bottle chips showed a downward trend from August 1st to 15th. On August 1st, the market price of polyester bottle flakes was 6060 yuan/ton, which dropped to 5972 yuan/ton on August 4th. On August 14th, some companies’ quotations continued to decline. On August 15th, driven by the rebound of crude oil, prices in East China rebounded by 10 yuan/ton to 5900 yuan/ton, and PET market prices rose, but transactions were still mainly based on small orders for essential needs.
On the cost side, OPEC+production expectations and uncertainty about US tariff policies led to Brent crude oil falling to $68.64 per barrel (-2.21% MoM), directly dragging PTA spot prices down to $4870 per ton and ethylene glycol falling below $4400 per ton. The aggregation cost decreased by 0.9% month on month to 5671 yuan/ton, and the bottle processing fee was repaired to 385 yuan/ton (month on month+86 yuan/ton), but the production gross profit still fell to -214 yuan/ton, forcing factories to raise prices.
Supply side: The bottle tablet industry will be in a period of concentrated production capacity from the second half of 2023, with relatively loose supply expectations. However, since July, there has been a concentrated production reduction in the bottle chip industry. In August, the main polyester bottle chip factories continued to maintain a production reduction of 20% or more, which started in July. This has eased inventory pressure, and some specifications are tight, providing some support for prices.
On the demand side: Downstream demand has shown a flat performance, affected by the continuous decline in raw materials and the depreciation of inventory in the early stage. The atmosphere for new weaving orders has not improved significantly, and buyers still hold a wait-and-see attitude. Downstream demand is mostly for essential purchases, which has limited driving effect on the price of polyester bottle chips.
Overall, the future price of polyester bottle chips is expected to show a fluctuating trend, with a short-term increase supported by costs. The expected price range is between 5900-6050 yuan/ton. However, in the medium to long term, there is still pressure from oversupply and limited room for price increases.