1、 Trend analysis

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price rose first and then fell this week. As of November 18, spot nickel quoted 203216.67 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the beginning of the week and up 42.16% year on year.

 

Nickel weekly fluctuation chart

 

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of the business community, the nickel price rose by 5, fell by 6, and leveled off in the past 12 weeks. Recently, the nickel price has recovered after strengthening.

 

Nickel industry chain

 

LME Nickel Inventory

 

As of November 18, LME nickel inventory was 50382 tons, 426 tons less than the previous day. In the last month, LME nickel inventory decreased by 4188 tons, a decrease of 7.8%.

 

“Oolong incident” caused LME nickel price to rise and fall sharply

 

On November 14, shortly after the opening of the European trading session, LME nickel suddenly surged 15% strongly, reaching the limit of 30960 US dollars/ton. However, the nickel price rose sharply and fell back to about 27500 US dollars/ton. Later, it rose again, closing at 28840 US dollars/ton, up 7.11%. The details can be found in the “Roller Coaster Market” of the “Oolong Event” Lunni Earthquake “on the Internet. Affected by the LME nickel earthquake, the nickel price also rose sharply on the 15th. Later, because of the weak support of the fundamentals, it fell back sharply. Under the influence of the “storm” of Lunyi Nickel, the upstream and downstream of the industry may have pressure conduction blocked, which is not conducive to the repair of industrial supply and demand and profits.

 

On the macro level, the Federal Reserve officials recently made a hawkish statement that the Federal Reserve will further increase interest rates, and the 50BP interest rate increase is also a significant increase in interest rates. Therefore, the decline of the dollar has slowed down, and metal prices are also under pressure.

 

In terms of supply: the arrival of rainy season, coupled with typhoon weather affecting the shipping rhythm, the Philippines’ shipments declined. In October 2022, Philippine nickel ore shipments totaled 5.115 million wet tons, down 13% month on month and up 11% year on year. The shipment volume of medium nickel ore decreased significantly compared with that of the previous month. However, domestic ferronickel enterprises have further concentrated and integrated enterprises, and the ore preparation level of large enterprises has increased significantly, and the inventory feedback has increased slightly year on year.

 

In terms of demand: the high heat output of downstream stainless steel in November has not yet faded, and the stainless steel production is expected to fall back in December, with continuous high output. It is difficult to have a good increase in demand as a whole, and the risk of warehouse is increased. Under the loss of stainless steel, the production may be reduced, and the demand and cost will decrease. From the data, the sales volume of new energy vehicles has been lower than the output for 4 consecutive months; At the same time, from a historical perspective, January and February have been affected by the Spring Festival, which has always been the slack season for automobile sales. The output of batteries is also higher than the installed capacity. According to the survey, some battery factories experienced inventory pressure to slow down production in November, and raw material procurement showed a reduction.

 

To sum up, LME announced that Russia Nickel delivery would not be prohibited temporarily, and the market’s concern about overseas delivery resources eased. At the same time, market rumors of Indonesia imposing export tariffs on nickel products have been delayed. With the arrival of the off-season, the digestion pressure of the downstream stainless steel output will come, and the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. The sales volume of new energy vehicles also declined, and the fundamentals could not support the continuous rise of nickel. It is expected that nickel prices will maintain a wide range of shocks.

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