1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have slightly increased this week. As of August 25th, the spot nickel quotation was 171750 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.79% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.21%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 7 and fallen by 5 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight increase in nickel prices recently.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On the macro level, new economic data from Europe and America has been released. The PMI values of European and American countries in August were lower than market expectations, reducing market expectations for further interest rate hikes by the European and American central banks and raising expectations for possible interest rate cuts next year. Driven by China’s stimulus policies, risk appetite has increased, while July’s consumption data showed strong performance, providing upward momentum for the non-ferrous metal market.

In terms of supply: In July 2023, the national refined nickel production reached a total of 21500 tons, an increase of 5.39% compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 34.38%. In late August, the 50000 ton/year refined nickel project in Qingshan, Indonesia was officially put into operation. Indonesia’s anti-corruption review has led to the suspension of RKAB issuance, increasing concerns about tight supply of nickel ore, and expectations of future raw material tightening in the nickel industry chain.

In terms of demand: Alloys are the main downstream of pure nickel, with better demand for alloys such as military and shipbuilding, while civilian alloys are not good. The electroplating industry is generally affected by the off-season, and downstream demand orders are poor. The pressure on stainless steel inventory is showing, but currently maintaining high production schedules has some support for the demand for pure nickel. Pure nickel is basically not used in new energy. It is expected that the downstream consumption of pure nickel will continue to increase in late August, but the marginal increment will be limited.

In summary, the news of nickel mines has disrupted nickel prices, and market sentiment has provided support for nickel prices. However, downstream acceptance of high prices remains weak, and spot price increases remain under pressure. Meanwhile, the market has revealed that the production of Indonesia’s refined nickel project will also limit the space above nickel prices. It is expected that the short-term nickel price may remain high and volatile.