According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic polyester filament prices remained stable this week (May 13-17), with increased cost drivers. However, downstream purchasing attitudes were cautious. At present, the mainstream polyester filament factory POY (150D/48F) in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offers a price range of 7450-7650 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) offers a price range of 9000-9200 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) offers a price range of 8150-8000 yuan/ton.

In the future, the cost side is still favorable, and international crude oil futures have bottomed out and stabilized. As of May 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $79.23 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $83.27 per barrel. The instability of the current situation in the Middle East still has a certain positive impact on oil prices. In addition, the peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand, and the decline in US crude oil and finished oil inventories will also provide support for oil prices. It is unlikely that the oil market will continue to decline.

In the PTA market, the maintenance plan for domestic PTA devices has been basically implemented, and PTA production has decreased. In addition, downstream polyester factories have stable demand, and the overall performance of the fundamentals is still good, which has helped to slightly rebound PTA prices. As of May 17th, the average market price in East China was 5858 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.36% from the beginning of the week. Domestic PTA plants have been undergoing maintenance one after another, and the industry’s operating rate has decreased to around 73%. In the future, the 4.6 million ton PTA plant may restart next week, and there are currently no plans for other large-scale PTA plant maintenance or restart in the short term. After the maintenance and restart of the PTA device are gradually completed, it will drive the slow recovery of PTA supply, and the supply of goods will be relatively loose.

Under the weakening demand during the off-season, polyester factories have eased inventory pressure by reducing production passively and proactively. Recently, mainstream polyester factories have announced production reduction plans, but there are doubts about the implementation of polyester production reduction. The seasonal decline in terminal demand is expected, and the current downstream weaving machine operating rate is stable at around 71%. With the weakening of the textile market and the accumulation of factory inventory, the expectation for the future market is poor. In the short term, it may mainly consume its own stock, and the purchasing mentality is cautious.

Overall, analysts from Business Society believe that it is difficult to see a significant increase in downstream demand in the short term, and the fundamentals are not optimistic. However, due to increased support for raw material costs and the impact of production reduction plans by polyester factories, it is expected that the price of polyester filament may slightly increase.