According to the monitoring of business agency, the mainstream market of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in East China market showed a shock trend of continuous decline and continuous rebound in that week (20th-26th): the mainstream market in the domestic market reported about 12700 yuan / ton on the 20th and 12776 yuan / ton on the 26th, up 0.6%. Among them, the highest weekly price was 12776 yuan / ton on the 26th, and the lowest was 12510 yuan / ton on the 22nd, with a maximum amplitude of 2.13%.

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices since June 2022

From the macro perspective of industrial analysis, on June 24, the price of international crude oil futures rebounded. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $107.62/barrel, up US $3.35 or 3.2%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $113.12/barrel, up US $3.07 or 2.8%. The market has returned to fundamentals, and the supply price of crude oil is under tight support. However, affected by the expectation of interest rate hikes by many central banks across the country, the market is worried about the economic recession, and the oil price is still fluctuating in the range.

Figure 4: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market in 2022

Supply side: the Southeast Asian production area has a large supply. The output of Yunnan production area in China has increased. Although the output of Hainan has not been fully cut, the cutting rate has continued to increase and the output has increased. The local thick latex price has continued to be suppressed. The global supply volume is unfavorable to the price support of raw rubber. Inventory: Currently, the import volume is not large, and the domestic inventory is reduced by a small margin. Demand side: the operating rate of the enterprise has not increased significantly. It is reported that the operating rate of all steel tires decreased on a weekly basis last week, while that of semi steel tires rebounded. The inventory of finished tires is high, and the purchase of raw rubber has not been greatly improved; The production and sales volume of downstream vehicles increased month on month: according to the data released by the passenger Federation, 416000 passenger vehicles were retailed from June 13 to 19, a year-on-year increase of 39%, a month on week increase of 19%, a year-on-year increase of 55%, and the increase in sales volume consumed a certain amount of tire inventory; Except for tires, the overall construction of Tianjiao products enterprises is generally started at present.

Future forecast: at present, the domestic and foreign supply side continues to increase, and the operating rate of downstream manufacturers is general. However, the domestic automobile promotion policy has boosted the natural rubber futures, and the production and sales have rebounded month on month. It is expected that the natural rubber market is more likely to continue to fluctuate in the range.