According to Reuters, on June 14 local time, OPEC representatives and industry insiders said that the growth of global oil demand will slow down in 2023 because the soaring crude oil and fuel prices will push up inflation and drag down global economic growth.

It is reported that OPEC sources predict that the oil demand will increase by 2million barrels per day or less in 2023, and the oil production organization previously predicted that the demand will increase by 3.36 million barrels per day in 2022. In the first forecast released in july2021, OPEC initially predicted that the demand growth in 2022 would be 3.28 million barrels per day, then raised it to more than 4million barrels per day, and then lowered it to 3.36 million barrels per day.

At present, OPEC is paying attention to the signs that high fuel prices lead to a decline in oil demand. The damage to demand may affect oil use in the coming months. A senior industry figure believes that the oil price of $120 per barrel is destroying demand, and this has already happened.

It is reported that the global fuel consumption has rebounded from the sharp decline caused by the COVID-19 in 2020. Even if the crude oil price reaches a record high, this year’s fuel consumption will still exceed the level in 2019. However, the high oil price has begun to drag down the economic growth expectation in 2022 and boost the economic growth slowdown expectation in 2023.

Data show that OPEC’s oil production fell by 176000 barrels per day to 28.51 million barrels per day in May, failing to meet the growth target stipulated in the OPEC + agreement. Although OPEC + agreed to accelerate the increase of oil production at the beginning of this month, the oil production of many member states is close to full capacity, and they are unable to further increase production. The group may not be able to achieve its goal of cooling the oil market.

The Iranian foreign ministry said on the 13th that the measures taken by Iran to suspend the implementation of some provisions of the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue were all “reversible”. Iran recently shut down some monitoring equipment only to stop some “voluntary measures” and still abide by the relevant safeguards agreement reached with the International Atomic Energy Agency. According to Agence France Presse, this statement means that it is still possible for the United States and Iran to finally reach an agreement on the nuclear issue, when Iran will be able to resume crude oil exports.

Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy announced on the 14th that it would sell the fourth batch of 45million barrels of strategic crude oil reserves to reduce oil prices. At the same time, the US Treasury Department also announced the bid winner of the public sale of strategic crude oil reserves on May 24. This batch of crude oil is expected to be put on the market between June 15 and July 31.

UBS group said on the 14th that the low inventory, the reduction of surplus capacity and the risk that supply growth lags behind demand growth in the coming months have pushed up its oil price expectations. UBS group predicts that the Brent crude oil futures price at the end of September this year is expected to be $130 per barrel, and that at the end of December this year is expected to be $125 per barrel, compared with the previous forecast of $115 per barrel.