According to the price monitoring of the business club, the domestic cocoon and silk market price continued to rise this week (6.20-6.24), maintaining a strong pattern. As of June 23, the average price of dried cocoons was 137000 yuan / ton, up 1.48% from the beginning of the week and down 1.79% year-on-year. The average market price of raw silk was 417962.50 yuan / ton, up 0.60% from the beginning of the week and down 0.49% year-on-year.

This week, the prices of raw silk contracts on the electronic disk continued to rise, breaking the previous high in June. In the spot market, the worrying situation of the supply side has stimulated the bullish expectation of the market, and the silk reeling enterprises have strengthened their price support and price increase behavior. However, the downstream domestic purchase intention is still general, and the spot price is still generally stable.

It is necessary to pay attention to the flood situation in Guangxi in the near future. From May to June, there were many torrential rains in many places in Guangxi, with the highest rainfall in the same period in 43 years. There were heavy rains in 77 towns and townships in 18 counties (districts) of 7 cities in the region. Many places, including Hechi, Baise and Liuzhou, were the key areas for cocoon production in the region. The flood disaster had a great impact on local daily life and mulberry breeding. Houses and mulberry gardens were flooded, and the quality and quantity of cocoons were expected to be greatly damaged, At the same time, the follow-up post disaster reconstruction work also needs to spend a lot of time and energy. It can be predicted that the cocoon output will decline to a certain extent compared with the same period.

After the downturn affected by the epidemic in the second quarter, the recovery level of the downstream demand side is still worrying. Although production and sales have recovered since June, and terminal construction has also rebounded, the peak demand season has passed, and the recovery height of terminal demand in the fourth quarter may still be limited. Due to the limited height of recovery under expectation, on the premise that the logic of the front-end cost side cannot be reversed, there is a risk that the downstream demand will not be able to follow at a certain time point. At that time, the negative feedback of the industry may lead to a more obvious weakening of raw silk prices. Therefore, it is necessary to consider whether the enthusiasm of terminal goods preparation will be hit by the rising cost price. At that time, negative price feedback may occur, resulting in the callback of raw silk price.

According to the analysts of the business agency, the national spring cocoon collection and drying work is basically coming to an end, the cocoon is rising, and the raw silk is rising. The trend of cocoon and silk is strong, and the direction has not changed in the recent period. The overall bullish expectation of the future market is large. At present, the overall trend continues to be dominated by short-term high-level adjustment. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand in the later period can continue to be significantly improved.