According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene has slightly declined recently (12.12-12.18). On December 18th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6510 yuan/ton, while on December 12th, the benchmark price was 6550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%.

International crude oil prices fluctuate narrowly, with short-term support for toluene cost

Recently (12.12-12.18), international crude oil prices have fluctuated narrowly, providing short-term support for the cost of toluene. As of December 15th, the WTI02 contract closed at $72.09 per barrel and settled at $71.78 per barrel; The Brent 02 contract closed at $76.91 per barrel and settled at $76.55 per barrel.

Small fluctuations in the domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of mid December, the construction of refinery facilities nationwide is around 70%.

PX starts temporarily stabilizing toluene and obtaining necessary support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance, and spot supply is normal. This week, the international crude oil price trend has fluctuated, and the external PX price has not changed much. As of the 14th, the closing price in Asia is 944-946 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 969-971 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene units in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region is normal. Recently, crude oil prices have fallen first and then increased, and the trend of crude oil is fluctuating. The domestic xylene market prices are temporarily stable.

External prices rebound, toluene supply pressure continues

On the one hand, with the rebound of crude oil prices over the weekend, the price of toluene in Asia has rebounded. As of December 15th, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 823-825 US dollars/ton; On the other hand, domestic production of toluene continues to slightly increase, and port inventory pressure continues, resulting in a slight increase in pressure on the supply side of toluene. As of mid December, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 75%; The inventory of toluene in East China is 41000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China is 14000 tons.

Market forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices are fluctuating and consolidating, and although the cost support for toluene has rebounded, the overall trend is weak; The downstream mixed blending of toluene and other industries have weak demand support, coupled with a continued increase in supply in the short term, and it is expected that the toluene market will consolidate weakly in the future.