Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week, and the urea price rose from 2698.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2742.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.63%, up 5.79% year-on-year. The urea commodity index on January 8 was 127.07, which was the same as yesterday, down 16.58% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and up 128.54% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support is good, downstream demand is weak, and urea supply is tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of domestic urea rose this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2950 yuan/ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the last weekend; Shandong Ruixing Urea quoted 2700 yuan/ton this weekend, up 70 yuan/ton from last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2700 yuan/ton this weekend, up 30 yuan/ton compared with last weekend.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream market rose and fell this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, from 6060.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6438.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 5.24%, up 28.93% from the same period last year; The price of anthracite is at a high level, and the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium lump) is 1870 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia dropped slightly, from 4673.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4606.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.43%, up 4.07% year-on-year from the same period last year. Upstream raw materials rose and fell sharply, and the price of urea was generally supported. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was low, and the price was 8233.33 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand was normal. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The plate and melamine enterprises are generally started, and mainly need to purchase. From the perspective of supply: some units in Shanxi have started to resume production, and some gas head enterprises have stopped for maintenance. The daily output of urea is about 150000 tons.

Mainly rising slightly in the future

The domestic urea market may rise slightly in the middle and late January. According to the urea analyst of the Business News Agency, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea rose slightly, and the cost of urea was well supported. Downstream agricultural demand increased slightly, and industrial demand was normal. Some gas head enterprises shut down for maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons. In the future, urea rose mainly in a narrow range.