1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, this week (2.10-14), the PVC spot market reversed its decline and prices rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Supply side: The PVC spot market atmosphere improved this week, reversing the previous decline. Driven by the futures market, the spot market slightly climbed this week. The market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand, and the PVC operating rate has remained stable this week. In the early stage, companies that had reduced their operating costs have taken actions to increase their costs, resulting in a slight increase in operating rates. This is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.

In terms of inventory, there has been a temporary increase in transaction volume in the market recently, and social inventory continues to decrease. However, considering the previously large basic inventory, the current spot supply side remains abundant.

On the cost side: The market price of calcium carbide remained stable this week, and the market entered a bottoming stage. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the weekly increase or decrease of calcium carbide was zero. The increase in downstream procurement volume after the holiday has a certain stimulating effect, and the upstream and downstream linkage has led to a rebound trend in PVC prices. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4850-5060 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that PVC supply is still sufficient in the short term, and the operating rate of manufacturers this week is generally higher than before the year. Although the inventory of enterprises continues to decrease, the process is slow. The rebound of short-term futures market is mainly due to the improvement of market sentiment, and the lack of sustained improvement momentum in PVC fundamentals. As downstream procurement returns to rationality, the positive support effect is not significant. We should be cautious about the magnitude of the increase.