This week (2.15-2.21), the nickel market first fell and then rose, with an overall upward trend. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of February 21st, spot nickel prices were reported at 126016 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.29%.

Macro: Currently, with the measures taken by the People’s Bank of China to support economic recovery, China’s new bank loans in January hit a historic high and exceeded expectations, which has strengthened people’s expectations that China will introduce more stimulus measures in the coming months.

Supply side: Due to the tight supply during the rainy season, nickel ore prices have risen in the mining sector. The pattern of nickel surplus continues. On February 21st, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 28254 tons, a decrease of 863 tons during the week; The trend of LME nickel inventory accumulation has not stopped. On February 21st, LME nickel inventory was 192906 tons, an increase of 12006 tons during the week.

On the demand side: The resumption of work and procurement by downstream enterprises has improved, but overall demand growth remains relatively slow. There is an expected increase in stainless steel production in March, and some downstream enterprises have started to purchase materials in small quantities. The recovery of export orders is good, but the overall purchasing atmosphere is weak. Stainless steel prices have slightly increased this week. As of February 21st, the daily average price of spot 304/2B stainless steel flat plate 1.0 * 1219 * 2438 (tolerance 0.91) is currently quoted at 12164.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.29% from the beginning of the week. The proportion of installed ternary batteries is gradually decreasing, and the production of ternary positive electrode materials is mostly determined by sales, without contributing to incremental growth.

Market forecast: slight boost in demand, macroeconomic sentiment disturbance, but the pattern of nickel surplus continues, and the upward trend of the market is limited. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the low range.