This week (9.14-9.20), there was a slight improvement in trading in the domestic acrylonitrile spot market, with supply expected to continue to decrease and market prices stabilizing. Shandong, as the region with the most active spot trading volume, has reached the mainstream transaction reference price of 8250-8450 yuan/ton as of September 20th, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the reference price of 8150-8350 yuan/ton on September 13th.

This week’s positive support still comes from the supply side: the inventory of acrylonitrile factories continued to decline during the week. As of September 18th, the total inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was about 49700 tons, a decrease of -0.76% compared to last week, a decrease of -13.26%.

In terms of cost: This week, the price of propylene in Shandong’s market has risen narrowly. As of the weekend, the mainstream closing reference is 6580-6680 yuan/ton, an increase of+0.23% compared to last week, with limited cost support.

Weak demand: This week, some new equipment from ABS manufacturers has encountered some difficulties in production, with qualified products not being released as scheduled. Additionally, some maintenance equipment has been restarted and maintained at low load or with slightly delayed restart times. As of the weekend, the average operating rate of the equipment was 65.44%, an increase of 4.87% compared to the previous period.

Market expectation: Overall, the factory inventory is currently not under pressure, and there are maintenance plans for both the north and south facilities next month. At the same time, there is a certain expectation of stocking demand before the long holiday. The spot market preference is fluctuating, but it is still insufficient to continue to rise. We are concerned about the positive news landing.