According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market has been declining first and then rising recently (9.9-9.18), with an overall downward trend. On September 9th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6320 yuan/ton, and on September 18th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% during the period. This cycle, the toluene market continued to operate weakly, with market prices fluctuating downward. During the cycle, the crude oil market fell first and then rose. The early trend dragged down the weak mentality of the toluene market. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, the crude oil market rose, driving the toluene market to recover slightly after the festival. On the supply side, the overall inventory of toluene in East and South China was low this week, but due to the downstream wait-and-see mentality, market trading was significantly sluggish. The main refineries have repeatedly lowered their ex factory prices, and local refining enterprises have continuously lowered their quotations. Downstream companies are observing and the purchasing enthusiasm is generally weak. As of September 18th, the mainstream quotation range in East China is between 6200-6250 yuan/ton.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, the crude oil market first fell and then rose. In September, the crude oil trend sharply declined, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East affected the crude oil market trend. The easing of the situation at the beginning of the month led to a significant decline in the crude oil market; Since September, there have been concerns about the future demand for crude oil market, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market; Finally, due to the rise in US crude oil inventories and negative factors, the overall crude oil market prices have significantly decreased. As of September 17th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.19 per barrel, an increase of $1.10 or 1.6%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $73.01 per barrel, an increase of $0.86 or 1.2%.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation has been lowered during the cycle, but there are slight differences in the amplitude adjustment among different underground sources. At present, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, the products are mostly for personal use, and the production and sales are stable. As of September 18th, East China Company quoted 6150 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6250 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6150-6200 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6250 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On September 18th, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7800 yuan/ton for xylene, which remained unchanged from the price on September 9th. PX prices continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $834-836/ton as of September 17th, a cumulative decrease of $31/ton from $865-867/ton on September 8th

Market forecast: The cost side crude oil market has been weak recently, and the overall market environment is bearish. The recovery of the crude oil market during the Mid Autumn Festival holiday will provide some boost to the market. In terms of supply, local refining enterprises in Shandong have experienced a slight decline in production recently, but overall supply is still relatively loose, which has limited impact on boosting the market. Recently, the overall atmosphere in the toluene market has been weak, with low downstream purchasing intentions and limited trading. Although prices have been at a low level for the year, some regions have expressed some intention to replenish inventory, but overall transactions are limited. Downstream demand tends to be rigid, and demand support is insufficient. Overall, there are still negative factors in the toluene market, and the mentality of supply and demand game is still strong. It is expected that the short-term trend will be dominated by narrow fluctuations. Focus on downstream replenishment in the future.