After the holiday, the domestic melamine market was weakly consolidated, downstream industrial demand was low, and there were few new transactions in the market. The overall atmosphere was sluggish. As of September 19th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6762.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.18% compared to the beginning of this month (6775.00 yuan/ton). The price drop of enterprises in various regions is between 50-100 yuan/ton.

The main reason for the sustained decline in the domestic melamine market recently is insufficient demand. In addition, the price of raw material urea has started to decline, and the transactions of melamine enterprises in the first week after the holiday are limited, resulting in a continuous decrease in prices. With the rapid decline in high-end prices, the wait-and-see mentality of downstream enterprises has intensified. In addition, downstream enterprises have more or less stocked up before the holiday, resulting in poor purchasing enthusiasm. Domestic trade demand is weak, and exports are also in a wait-and-see state. The melamine market lacks strong support, and prices continue to fall.

From the perspective of downstream demand, the operating rate of domestic sheet metal enterprises has decreased, and coupled with local environmental inspections, the operating rate in some areas is less than 50%. Due to reduced demand, melamine companies have difficulty following up on new orders, resulting in a significant decline in the market. Buyers are hesitant to enter the market unless they have urgent needs, leading to frequent low prices in the melamine market.

Raw material prices are falling

Recently, there has been another large-scale decline in domestic urea prices, and the current market lacks positive news to boost the market, resulting in a continued weak downward trend in prices. As of September 19th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 2171.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.09% compared to the beginning of this month (2173.00 yuan/ton). The current market supply and demand fundamentals are weakly supported, with weak trading sentiment and a narrow downward trend in the market. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to decline in the short term, and the market will be mainly dominated by weak consolidation.

Overall, there is no positive expectation for the domestic melamine market in the short term. It is expected that the mainstream price at atmospheric pressure will be around 6500-6700 yuan/ton next week. In the later stage, we need to mainly focus on downstream demand dynamics and changes in raw material prices.