1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of melamine products)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the melamine market was mainly stable. According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of January 15, the average quotation price of melamine enterprises was 7266.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, increased by 0.93% compared with December 15, 2020, and increased by 30.54% over the same period in three months.

Melamine operation rate fell this week, but the demand was weak, downstream on-demand procurement still dominated, the market was flat, and the trading atmosphere was general. On January 15, the mainstream price of melamine in Shandong was around 7000 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of melamine in Xinjiang was around 6300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of melamine in Sichuan was around 6800 yuan / ton. The quotation is for reference only, and the actual price shall prevail.

Upstream urea, Shandong urea market rose on January 15. The recent high level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia shows good cost support. The downstream demand rose as a whole, and in agriculture, fertilizer preparation in some areas was appropriately advanced. In terms of industry, the demand of plate and compound fertilizer plants has been followed up appropriately, and the purchasing enthusiasm of businesses has improved. On the supply side, some units have been shut down for maintenance recently, and the overall start-up has declined. The market supply has remained low.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 02nd week of 2021 (1.11-1.15), there were 40 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, among which 8 kinds of commodities rose by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the total number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were DMF (18.80%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (8.37%), epoxy resin (8.05%). There were 17 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were butadiene (- 11.42%), ox (- 6.00%) and chloroform (- 2.94%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.93%.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that the price of upstream urea has risen recently, and the cost support has been strengthened, but the downstream demand has not been followed up enough. It is expected that the melamine market may be stable in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.