1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose from 1853.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1936.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 4.50%, and a year-on-year increase of 15.51%. Overall, urea market rose this week, with urea commodity index at 90.08 on January 15.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 1970 yuan / ton this weekend, up 120 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 1950 yuan / ton this weekend, up 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Minghua urea quoted 1890 yuan / ton this weekend, up 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

In agriculture, affected by the epidemic situation, fertilizer preparation in some areas was appropriately advanced. In industry, the warning of heavy pollution weather has been lifted gradually, the start-up of plate and compound fertilizer plants has recovered, the demand has been followed up appropriately, and the purchasing enthusiasm of businesses has improved. On the supply side, local units were stopped or overhauled for a short time, while the overall start-up declined, and the market supply remained low.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industry chain: the overall price of upstream urea products rose slightly this week: the price of LNG was temporarily stable, with a price of 5366.67 yuan / ton, up 75.00% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia rose this week, with a price increase of 1.84% from 3266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3326.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 10.64% compared with the same period last year. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, at 7266.67 yuan / ton. Overall, urea cost support is strong this week.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that the current agricultural demand is better, the industrial demand has improved, the urea supply is tight, and the short-term urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly.