1、 Price trend
In May 2020, the “V” trend of domestic lead ingot Market, with the average price of 13975 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 144381 at the end of the month. 25 yuan / ton, up 2.91%.
On May 29, the lead commodity index was 87.52, down 0.23 points from yesterday, 34.69% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), and 17.27% higher than 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).
2、 Market analysis
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In May, the futures market kept a wide swing trend, hovering between 1600-1700 US dollars, with mixed factors affecting fundamentals, positive and negative factors interwoven, and Lund lead was affected by inventory growth. Shanghai lead 07 contract fell back after hitting the high, and the main shock was between 13600-14500 in the month. As of 29, 14220 yuan / ton, up 5.33% in the month.
The overall trend of domestic spot lead market this month is good, with a monthly increase of about 300 yuan / ton. In the first ten days of this year, the spot lead market was mainly subject to shocks, with little price fluctuation. On December 12, the price of Lund lead was driven up by shocks in China. Later, it was dragged down by the metal market and entered the decline channel. The price of Lund lead fell down, and the price of Lund lead rose back. The domestic low-level supply of used batteries was tight, and the supply of recycled lead was tight, supporting the price of lead Fall and stabilize, and slowly enter the rising channel. In terms of supply, the production of enterprises is relatively stable, and the operating rate remains at a normal level. In terms of demand, the downstream lead-acid battery entered the traditional off-season in May, with some small and medium-sized enterprises reducing production and slightly reducing the demand for lead. In terms of renewable lead, Yunnan Guizhou and Jiangxi manufacturers started to improve, and waste batteries performed well, with a rise of about 200 yuan / ton this month. On the whole, the market fundamentals in May were mixed, with market shocks dominating.
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there are 17 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the nonferrous sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 22.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities rising are silver (15.57%), dysprosium oxide (8.68%) and dysprosium ferroalloy (7.04%). There are five kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products are praseodymium oxide (- 3.28%), antimony (- 2.69%) and titanium concentrate (- 1.69%). This month’s average was up or down 2.6%.
The business club predicted that the favorable policy impact brought by the closing of the two sessions will further affect the metal market. On the 29th, some metal prices rebounded, and the commencement of various industries in China will gradually go on the right track. The overall market environment will still be good in the later stage, and the spot lead market will be affected by the soft demand in the downstream. In the near future, the fundamentals are good and bad. It is expected that the future market will be mainly integrated in the short term, with the overall market The market environment is good, the downstream production is gradually restored, and there is still room for the future market to rise.
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Relevant data:
National Bureau of Statistics: in April 2020, China’s lead output was 489000 tons. According to the data from the National Bureau of statistics, China’s lead output in April 2020 was 489000 tons, with a cumulative output of 1683000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.60% and a cumulative decrease of 3.20%.
ILZSG: the global lead market oversupply fell in March: according to the data released by the international lead zinc research group (ILZSG) on May 20, the global lead market oversupplied 14200 tons in March and 16400 tons in February. From January to March this year, there was a total supply surplus of 19000 tons, compared with 13000 tons in the same period last year..
WBMs: from January to March 2020, the supply of lead in the world will be short of 170000 tons: according to the monthly report released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on May 20, the supply of lead in the world will be short of 17000 tons from January to March 2020, and the whole year 2019 will be short of 237000 tons. As of the end of March, the total inventory is 30000 tons less than that at the end of 2019. From January to March 2020, the global refined lead output will be 2.9 million tons, a decrease of 4% over the same period of last year. China’s apparent demand is expected to be 1.197 million tons, a decrease of 220000 tons compared with the same period last year, accounting for about 41% of the global total demand. From January to March, the apparent demand of the United States increased by 24000 tons year on year. In March 2020, the global refined lead production is 1030600 tons, and the demand is 1035800 tons.
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