According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the East China region’s 1 # tin ingot market rose first and then fell this week (4.14-4.21). On April 14th, the average market price was 197160 yuan/ton, and on April 21st, the average market price was 213510 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 8.29%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors, and have fallen by 11.35% in a single month since February 2023. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been fluctuating frequently recently, and the overall trend is weak. This week, tin prices have risen due to the news of the planned production halt in Wa State.

In terms of the futures market, on April 15, the Central economic planning Commission of the Wa State of Myanmar issued the Notice on Suspending All Mineral Resources Mining, which pointed out that in order to protect the Wa mineral resources, all mineral resources mining and excavation would be suspended until the conditions for mature mining were not met. After August 1, 2023, all exploration, mining, processing and other operations in the mine will cease. Myanmar is the first source country for China’s tin ore imports. According to customs data, in 2022, China imported 187300 tons of tin ore from Myanmar, accounting for approximately 77% of China’s total imports. The tin concentrate production in the Wa region accounts for about 50% of the total production in Myanmar. If tin mines in the Myanmar region stop production after August 1st, it will have a significant impact on domestic tin supply. Under the influence of this news, domestic Shanghai tin rose by the limit on the day of the 17th and another 6.93% on the night of the 17th.

On the supply side: Currently, there is not much change in the overall supply and demand in China, and the attitude of smelters towards high prices still exists. The overall domestic production has remained at a relatively stable level of around 60%. However, based on the import situation of tin concentrate from January to February, the import volume has decreased by 23.1% year-on-year, and the supply at the mining end is still tight. In terms of demand, it remains weak and shows little signs of recovery in the short term. Currently, the main application field of tin in China is the electronics industry. In the downstream consumption structure of refined tin metal, soldering tin accounts for about 44% of the market share, while tin plates account for about 16% of the market share. Therefore, the development of the electronics industry, including the new energy industry, has a significant impact on tin. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of integrated circuits from January to February 2023 was 44.3 billion pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 17%. According to Business News, due to the poor performance of electronic orders in the near future, the operating rate of solder companies has remained stable in the near future, and it is expected that there will be no significant changes in the future. In terms of inventory, LME inventory is currently at a low level, while domestic inventory is still relatively high. However, there have been slight signs of destocking since last week, and there has been some improvement in tin prices since the end of last week. Overall, downstream demand is still weak, and in the short term, the market will significantly increase due to the news of the planned production halt in Wa State. However, the impact of this news on subsequent fundamentals is still unclear. In the short term, the impact of domestic supply and demand on tin prices remains limited, and in the future, it is still necessary to focus on the impact of domestic and foreign macro factors on the market.

On April 22, the base metal index stood at 1245 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 22.96% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 93.93% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 15th week of 2023 (4.10-4.14), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices. Among them, there was 1 commodity that increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were magnesium (25.38%), silver (4.82%), and nickel (4.53%). There are a total of 11 products with a month on month decrease, and 5 products with a decrease of over 5%, accounting for 21.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products in the decline were neodymium oxide (-8.26%), praseodymium oxide (-7.48%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-6.00%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.27%.