1、 Price trend
According to the data of the large list of business agencies, the market price of domestic propylene (Shandong) continued to maintain stability in the middle of December, with a fluctuation of no more than 0.5%. The average price of enterprises at the beginning of ten days (December 11) is 6738 yuan / ton, and the average price of enterprises at the end of ten days (December 20) is 6718 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.31% in ten days. Ten day high price appeared on December 14, which was 6745 yuan / ton, and ten day amplitude was 0.41%.
2、 Analysis and comment
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Product: at the beginning of December, influenced by the international crude oil market “Black Friday”, the price began to decline. The price has fallen by about 400 yuan / ton this month. After that, the price has remained stable. Today, the price of individual enterprises has declined slightly. At present, the market turnover is about 6630-7050 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6670-6700 yuan / ton. At present, the market is still relatively stable and the supply and demand are relatively balanced.
Industry chain: in the upstream, the earlier OPEC + meeting production reduction agreement was delayed and strengthened. After the rise of international crude oil, it began to rise steadily and continuously, but the range was small, with little impact on propylene.
In the near future, PP declined slightly, with a 10 day drop of 3.85%. There is no centralized purchase for downstream factories. The confidence of the operators is insufficient, the quotation keeps falling, and the operation is cautious. It is expected that the PP market will continue to be adjusted at a low level in the near future. The new 300000 t / a polypropylene plant of a large powder plant will be shut down unexpectedly, which has a certain negative impact on propylene.
In the near future, acrylic acid slightly increased, with a ten day increase of 0.41%. Its spot supply is limited, but the downstream market demand is weak, and the negotiation is relatively stagnant. It is expected that the market will maintain stable operation in the short term, with limited impact on propylene.
In recent days, due to the positive shipping mentality of propylene oxide manufacturers, the downstream demand is relatively light, favorable support is insufficient, and the price is significantly reduced, with a ten day drop of 5.96%. It is expected that the future market will still be weak operation, which has a negative impact on propylene.
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Due to the tight supply, the price of epichlorohydrin has been rising continuously since the middle of the month, up 4.13% in three days. Although high price raw materials inevitably cause conflicts among downstream users, manufacturers are willing to support the market, and it is hard to find low price. It is expected that epichlorohydrin will increase slightly in the short term, which will have a positive impact on propylene.
Recently, the main trend of domestic small consolidation of n-butanol continued to be stable, with a ten day decline of 1.59% and a ten day amplitude of 2.40%, which had a slight negative impact on propylene.
The price of octanol is mainly low consolidation, with a ten day increase of 0.24%, which has little impact on propylene.
Phenol Market recovered to its original position after a slight rise in the middle of December, with a ten day amplitude of 0.85%. The market was weak and had little impact on propylene.
Acetone market was down in mid December, down as much as 7.08% in ten days. It is expected that the market may still have a downward trend, which has a significant negative impact on propylene.
Isopropanol market was affected by acetone, and the price fell all the way, with a 10 day drop of 6.84%, which also had a negative impact on propylene market.
3、 Future forecast
According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the propylene market has been generally stable in recent days. The OPEC + meeting production reduction agreement was postponed and strengthened. The international crude oil was consolidated at a high level, but the increase was limited at the later stage, the downstream support was insufficient, and some products were slightly affected by negative effects. Therefore, it is expected that the market price of propylene will fluctuate steadily in recent days.
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