1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the average ex factory price of domestic grade-I chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5066 yuan / ton on December 9, and the average ex factory price of domestic grade-I chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5133 yuan / ton on December 18, with a price increase of 1.32%. Up to now, the commodity index of chlorinated paraffin on December 18 is 76.43, unchanged from yesterday, 30.16% lower than the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and 19.70% higher than the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: low level of chlorinated paraffin at present. The ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4600-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 5200 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is 4700-5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4700-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton.

Crude oil: WTI’s January 2020 futures fell $0.01/barrel on Wednesday (December 18), while Brent’s February 2020 futures rose $0.07/barrel at $66.17. China’s SC crude oil futures rose 2.6 yuan to 474.8 yuan / barrel in 2002.

Industry chain: the market price of raw material liquid wax is stable, the current trend is temporarily stable, the manufacturer is stable in shipping, and the market fluctuation is not big. Recently, the market price of liquid chlorine has been raised, and the market in some regions has been significantly raised. Due to the increase of cost and the pressure of downstream enterprises, chlorinated paraffin manufacturers began to adjust flexibly.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there are 24 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are glycol (17.59%), crude benzene (7.07%) and aniline (6.81%). There are 28 commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month on month basis, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are hydrochloric acid (- 6.41%), chloroform (- 4.55%), and bisphenol A (- 3.62%). This week’s average was 0.07%.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business association, the price of raw materials of chlorinated paraffin in China is rising, and the cost pressure of manufacturers is increasing. The downstream demand is poor, and the overall operating rate is low. It is expected that the chlorinated paraffin market will be in the finishing stage in the later stage, and the manufacturers will flexibly adjust the small fluctuation within the range.