1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price trend of DOP in 2019 can be divided into three stages: the first stage, the price of DOP in the first half of 2019 dropped sharply, from 8650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 6983 yuan / ton on June 20, with a price drop of 19.27%; the second stage, from late June to the end of September, the price of DOP rose in shock, from 6983 yuan / ton on June 20 to 7920 yuan / ton at the end of September In the third stage, since October, the price has been stable after falling. In October, the DOP price dropped to about 7400 yuan / ton, and in November and December, the DOP price has been stable. Why does DOP market appear in 019? Let’s analyze from raw materials, downstream market and competitive products market.

2、 Raw material market analysis

It can be seen from the figure that in the first half of 2019, the prices of raw materials, such as phthalic anhydride and octanol, fell sharply, the prices of raw materials, DOP costs, DOP prices have a large space to fall, and DOP prices follow the decline. Since June, there have been explosions in many domestic chemical plants, the improvement of safety production in the chemical industry park has been strengthened, the enterprise operation rate has been reduced, resulting in a short-term shortage of DOP, and the price of DOP has been adjusted since the end of June; August and September come, the centralized maintenance of the equipment of the phthalic manufacturers and the sudden failure of the equipment of the phthalic manufacturers lead to the shortage of the supply of phthalic acid, resulting in a sharp rise in the price of phthalic acid The price of DOP increased sharply due to the pressure of cost, conduction of cost pressure and rise of DOP price. However, the rise of octanol price in August added another fire to the rise of DOP price, and the price of DOP rose sharply in August and September. In October, the price of phthalic anhydride and octanol began to fall, the price of raw materials began to fall, the cost of DOP fell, the price of DOP lost its support, and the price of DOP began to fall, which led to the decline of DOP price in October. Also affected by the cost, the price of DOP could not fall indefinitely, and the price of DOP fluctuated and remained stable in November and December.

3、 Downstream market analysis

Plasticizer DOP is mainly used in the field of PVC plastic products. The change of PVC market has a great influence on DOP. It can be seen from the above figure that in 2019, the domestic plastic social inventory remained at a high level in the first half of the year, with slow inventory removal, fluctuating PVC prices and volatile changes, and the overall positive pulling effect on DOP was limited.

4、 Competitive analysis

Plasticizers can be divided into o-benzene, p-benzene, metabenzene, epoxy, citric acid ester, etc. DOP and DOTP, DBP, DCP, DiBP, DINP are competing products. The decline of competitive product price has a great impact on DOP. In the first half of 2019, DOP price dropped sharply, which is largely due to the decline of competitive product price, which has dragged down DOP price. As a general plasticizer of DOP, DCP can replace DOP, and the price of DCP is lower than DOP, which is a big challenge to DOP. In general, there are many competitive products in the plasticizer Market, with excess capacity. However, the downstream market of plasticizer in 2019 is weak, and the price rise and fall of plasticizer are limited. The price rise and fall are mainly affected by the raw material market. At the same time, the competition among competitive products leads to limited power of plasticizer rise.

5、 Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP of business agency, believes that the overall decline of DOP market in 2019, although the short-term price rise is affected by the rising cost, but the overall decline trend is difficult to change. The main reason is the weak downstream demand, affected by the commencement of the real estate market, PVC market is poor. With the recovery of the real estate market in 2020, the PVC market may improve, which is good for the plasticizer Market. In 2019, the price of plasticizer raw materials fell sharply, and the future market fell less. The future market DOP cost fell in a limited space. The plasticizer DOP was limited by the cost, and the future market price fell in a limited space. It is expected that in 2020, the market of plasticizer DOP will improve, and the price or shock will rise.