1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the asphalt market price remained stable in December, and the asphalt price was reported as 3374 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 0.48% from 3358 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in December, although the international crude oil price rose sharply, the overall demand of asphalt market was not good, and the rise of asphalt price was blocked.

Industry chain: in December, China US trade relations continued to develop well, and market sentiment continued to develop well; moreover, OPEC’s decision to deepen the production reduction agreement further pushed up the international crude oil price. Meanwhile, the crude oil market in December was less bearish, with WTI crude oil market price rising 11.37% in December.

In terms of asphalt Market: the weather turns cold, and the demand for asphalt terminal is poor. In December, the demand in Northeast, Shandong and North China basically stops, and there is still a small amount of demand for ending in refineries, converting to production, or selling to other places, and in East and South China. According to the latest data from the Bureau of statistics, the production of petroleum asphalt from January to November 2019 was 36.907 million tons, up 21.4% year on year. Oversupply is the main reason for the sluggish price performance of the asphalt Market in 2019. Moreover, the off-season characteristics of asphalt in December are obvious, so the price of asphalt market is weak.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst with business club, believes that although the international crude oil price has risen, the new year’s Spring Festival holiday will come and the road construction will be basically stopped. The demand of domestic asphalt market will continue to shrink in January, and the asphalt price is expected to fall steadily in December.