According to statistics, in 2020, the price trend of domestic PX market will drop sharply, with the average price of 6900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and 4300 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with an annual drop of 37.68%. From the price trend chart, it can be seen that the highest price of domestic PX appears at the beginning of the year, with the highest price of 6900 yuan / ton, the lowest price of the whole year appears in May, with the lowest price of 4000 yuan / ton The PX market price is affected by domestic and foreign factors.
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In 2020, China’s total PX production capacity is 26.165 million tons, and the domestic new production capacity is 5.6 million tons. However, the annual operating rate is about 7.25%, and the total output is about 19 million tons. However, the total import volume in 2020 is as high as 13 million tons. On the whole, PX’s dependence on foreign countries has declined, and the dependence on foreign countries is 41% in 2020. The commissioning of new domestic devices has led to a sharp rise in domestic PX self-sufficiency rate, which is higher than that in 2019 However, PX price is also the most important factor affecting the domestic market price of p-xylene.
Combined with the domestic market price trend chart and PX external price trend chart, the PX market price trend can be divided into three stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of May, the PX market price trend drops sharply; the second stage is from June to the end of July, the PX market price rises slightly; the third stage is from August to the end of the year, the PX market price falls again.
The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of May. The price trend of domestic PX market has been falling continuously. The domestic price has dropped from 6900 yuan / ton to 4000 yuan / ton in May, a drop of 42.03%. From the perspective of domestic spot supply, PX has a substantial decline in the normal supply rate and the operating price of PX products. During this period, affected by the collapse of crude oil price, PX external price dropped sharply, PX external price fell to a new low in history, external price dropped from 857 US dollars / ton CFR Taiwan to 450 US dollars / ton CFR Taiwan, external price dropped sharply by 400 US dollars / ton, the collapse of external price was a major negative impact on domestic xylene market, and domestic xylene market price dropped sharply. From the perspective of industrial chain, the price of crude oil in the first stage dropped sharply, from 58 US dollars / barrel at the beginning of the year due to the sudden drop of demand, the increase of shale oil production in the United States, and the bottleneck of oil storage capacity in the United States, especially the Cushing area is close to full load, which triggered one of the most eye-catching events of this year. The “negative oil price” event of WTI delivery monthly contract falling to – 37 US dollars, and the sharp drop of crude oil price has a great impact on the domestic oil market Toluene Market lost its support, and the price trend of domestic p-xylene market dropped sharply. The price trend of downstream PTA market dropped sharply, with the price of PTA Market falling by 28.61%. During this period, affected by domestic public health events, the operating rate of textile industry was low, and the demand for upstream products dropped sharply, resulting in high inventory of PX and PTA products, and the market price continued to fall.
The second stage is from June to the end of July, PX market price rose slightly, domestic market price rose slightly from 4000 yuan / ton to 4800 yuan / ton, an increase of 20%. Domestic PX market price rose slightly, mainly due to the improvement of domestic demand and the rise of crude oil price, which boosted the domestic petrochemical market. In the second stage, the domestic PX operation rate was less than 70%. A 800000 ton production line was started in Tenglong aromatics plant. Hengli Petrochemical added 4.5 million tons of production capacity and started 2.25 million tons. Yangzi Petrochemical’s PX plant was in normal operation, Jinling Petrochemical plant was in stable operation, Qingdao Lidong plant was in full load operation, Qilu Petrochemical plant was in normal operation, Urumqi petrochemical plant was in about 50% operation, and domestic PX plant was in stable operation The supply was normal, the domestic p-xylene market was improved, and the PX market price was higher. During this period, the international crude oil price rose sharply, OPEC + entered the period of super scale production reduction, the epidemic situation improved, the demand recovered, and the international oil price began to rise. During the super scale production reduction period of OPEC + from May to July, WTI rebounded sharply to about $40 / barrel. The rising trend of international crude oil price brought cost support to the PX market price, and the PX price recovered. The price of PX was driven up by the price of crude oil. The price of PX rose from 450 US dollars / ton to 540 US dollars / ton. The price of PX rose by 100 US dollars / ton. The price of PX has a certain guiding role for the domestic PX market. The dependence of PX on foreign countries is still high. The rise of PX price is a good support for the domestic PX market. In addition, the domestic textile industry started to rise from 3300 yuan / ton to 3600 yuan / ton, and the domestic textile industry started to recover The domestic market price of p-xylene recovered and went up.
The third stage is from August to the end of the year. The PX market price returns to the decline stage. The domestic PX market price drops from 4800 yuan / ton to 4000 yuan / ton at the end of the year, a decrease of 10.42%. During this period, more than 70% of domestic PX units were started, Yangzi Petrochemical Unit was stable in operation, Fuhai Chuang unit was started, Pengzhou petrochemical unit was stable in operation, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit was normal in operation, Jinling Petrochemical Unit was stable in operation, Qilu Petrochemical Unit was stable in operation, and Urumqi petrochemical unit was started at about 50% With the resumption of the plant and the commissioning of Dongying Weilian chemical’s 1 million T / a PX plant, the domestic supply has basically recovered to the highest level this year, the domestic supply of p-xylene has increased, and the market price trend of p-xylene has repeatedly declined. The price of PX has been fluctuating from US $550 to US $600 per ton, and the price of PX has not changed much. However, due to the increase of supply in the domestic market, the price of PX in the domestic market has declined. During this period, the crude oil price has been around us $45 / barrel. Although the epidemic is still fermenting, the economy continues to recover, and the oil price has entered a relatively stable stage. The oil price has always been rising and falling, mainly in the range of shocks. Even the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in August and September, and the endless farce in the US election, did not bring about another dramatic shock to oil prices, such as the breakdown of OPEC + negotiations and negative WTI oil prices. In addition, a major breakthrough was made in Xinguan vaccine in the later period, oil prices opened an upward channel, and OPEC + reached an agreement to reduce production in early December, which also released a positive signal to the oil market. The shock of international oil prices brought a certain positive impact on domestic petrochemical products, and the price of PX market declined slightly. At this stage, the price trend of PTA Market in the downstream was first suppressed and then increased, but the overall price trend was relatively stable, the foreign textile industry did not recover significantly, the domestic export market did not improve, the PTA market price remained at a low level, and the domestic p-xylene market was affected and went down.
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From the perspective of PX products in 2020, China’s total PX production capacity is 26.165 million tons, and the domestic new production capacity is 5.6 million tons. The statistics of domestic new production capacity are as follows:
It is clear from the above table that domestic production capacity has risen sharply, and domestic supply has increased. The annual operating rate of PX is about 7.25%, and the annual output is expected to be about 19 million tons. The domestic p-xylene spot supply is still insufficient, and the domestic p-xylene still has a high degree of external dependence, which makes the domestic p-xylene pricing greatly affected by foreign countries. In 2020, all the new production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year, resulting in a substantial increase in domestic supply and a sharp decline in domestic market price of p-xylene. In addition, the annual average profit of PX products is negative in 2020. The profit trend of production process with mixed xylene as raw material is shown in the figure below
There are two kinds of PX production process, one is naphtha as the main raw material, the other is MX as the main raw material. In 2020, the profit of using naphtha as raw material to produce PX is limited, but the profit of using MX as raw material to produce PX has been negative, the annual average profit is – 50 US dollars / ton, and the profit is negative, which has become the new normal in 2020. The domestic market of p-xylene is not improving, and the market price of PX will drop sharply in 2020..
Part of domestic PX is separated from mixed xylene. Crude oil price and domestic mixed xylene price are also the influencing factors of domestic market price trend of p-xylene. 2020 is a special year in history. In the past year, the world has experienced unprecedented impact of new epidemic situation, and the global economy has been hit hard; as well as Europe, America, Asia and other economies have introduced new policies The economic aid program is also a difficult year for economic recovery. The performance of international crude oil has experienced ups and downs. We have also witnessed many historical moments, such as the breakdown of OPEC + talks, ultra scale production reduction, “negative oil prices” and the farce ridden US election. According to the trend chart of xylene, the market price of mixed xylene dropped sharply in 2020, with an overall increase of 29.01%. In the first quarter, the price of mixed xylene plummeted. The sharp contradiction between supply and demand of global PX led to the negative profit era of PX.
97% of domestic PX is used to produce PTA. Comparing the price trend of px-pta in 2019, it is obvious from the figure above that the price trend of PX and PTA in the whole year is quite close, and the domestic PX and PTA market prices have declined sharply. However, with the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, the textile industry will improve in December 2020, and the rise of downstream prices is undoubtedly a good support for the domestic PX market.
From the domestic PX price trend chart in recent five years, we can see that 2020 is the year with the lowest PX price. Chen Ling, PX analyst of business news agency, believes that the Asian PX market will continue to be weak in 2021, with overcapacity and weak price trend in the Asian PX market, which will bring huge upward pressure. With the release of new domestic production capacity, the supply continues to increase greatly. Although there are still new units put into operation in domestic PTA enterprises next year and the demand has increased, the new PX production capacity is even greater, including the commissioning of 5 million tons / year PX unit in phase II of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, becoming the largest PX leading enterprise in China. With the commissioning of 2.8 million tons of units in Jiangsu Shenghong company, the PX self-sufficiency rate will gradually increase, and the domestic import volume will be greatly reduced Domestic supply and demand have improved, but the overall supply of PX in Asia has been surplus. There is a huge pressure on big PX exporting countries such as Japan and South Korea. It is very likely that they will sell to the domestic market and compete with domestic enterprises in price. The production loss of PX will continue. Therefore, PX will remain weak in 2021, and the negative profit of PX will become the norm. It is difficult for the domestic market price of p-xylene to rise The average price is about 5000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the domestic high price will appear in the textile spring sales season, and the domestic market price of p-xylene will be 6000 yuan / ton. However, with the continuous release of new domestic production capacity, the domestic low price is expected to be about 3800 yuan / ton.
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