Commodity index: on December 28, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 88.59, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 17.31% compared with the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (May 8, 2019), and increased by 6.88% compared with the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

The data showed that the trend of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionicity) showed a small upward trend in December. The reason for the slight increase is that the factory has stopped production and there is a slight shortage of goods.

Price quotation: as shown in the figure, the data shows that since mid November 2020, the mainstream quotation of domestic manufacturers has shown a fluctuating upward trend; especially in December, due to the continuous shutdown of polyacrylamide manufacturers, the existing inventory has been gradually consumed, and the market price has gradually increased; for manufacturers with sufficient supply, the price change is not so urgent; at the same time, due to the price callback of raw material acrylonitrile this month, the price of polypropylene has declined In fact, in severe winter, the downstream demand is less, and the boosting effect on the price of the demand side is weak.

Industrial chain: upstream: the domestic mainstream quotation of acrylonitrile was 9300 yuan / ton in October, rose nearly 3000 yuan / ton in November, and returned to the mainstream quotation of 12250 yuan / ton in December. The main acrylonitrile plant in Shanghai has resumed normal operation. The overhaul plan of 260000 ton acrylonitrile plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, which was originally scheduled to start on December 20, has been postponed, but the specific time is not clear. The 130000 ton acrylonitrile plant in Haijiang, Shandong Province is scheduled to be restarted from December 10 to 15, but it has not been restarted yet. Jilin chemical fiber Gaocheng acrylic fiber plant was shut down on December 5, and Shanghai Petrochemical North plant was shut down on December 6. In December, Sinopec’s settlement prices of acrylonitrile products in North China and East China were 12450 yuan / ton, up 2550-2600 yuan / ton compared with last month’s settlement. Ineos’s acrylonitrile plant in Germany fell due to insufficient supply of raw propylene. Global supply is still tight, and the number of inquiries from Europe and India increased. Asahi Kasei of Japan announced that the Far East contract price in January 2021 was US $1800 / T, up US $380 / T from December.

Industry: in December, polyacrylamide manufacturers continued to stop production, the demand for raw material acrylonitrile weakened, and the price of acrylonitrile has been callback for many times; at present, with the gradual consumption of domestic spot stock of polyacrylamide, some manufacturers are short of supply, and the price has been raised, that is, the price of this month is mainly affected by the supply situation.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the current demand support is insufficient, the manufacturer’s shutdown is less affected by the change of raw material price, and the market price of polyacrylamide is mainly affected by the supply situation caused by the manufacturer’s shutdown so far. It is said that the production will resume next month, but it is difficult to resume at present. The increase of supply side is limited, the seasonal purchasing pressure of demand is small, the possibility of price fluctuation is small, and the main trend is stable operation.