After the center of gravity of ethylene glycol prices shifted downwards in December, it began to stabilize and stop falling
The center of gravity of ethylene glycol prices shifted downwards in December, and recently prices have begun to stabilize and stop falling. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of December 30th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 3864.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.59% from the average price of 4050 yuan/ton on December 1st.
In terms of port ethylene glycol, the spot contracts for port ethylene glycol (starting from 500 tons) have a weak basis, and the futures contracts have switched from contract 2601 to contract 2605. As of the close, the basis quotes for next week’s contracts (before 1.9) are -137 to -133, and for next week’s contracts (before 1.16) are -125 to -122. The basis quotes for January’s contracts (before 1.25) are -116 to -111, for February’s contracts (before 2.25) are -81 to -75, and for March’s contracts (before 2.25) are -43 to -40.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) for whole vehicle manufacturers is 3280-3360 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of December 29th, the recent negotiations and transactions for ship to land prices have been around 441-445 US dollars per ton.
Changes in Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory in December 2025:
On December 29, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 659500 tons, a decrease of 30500 tons compared to the total spot inventory of 690000 tons on December 1; Compared to the total spot inventory of 499000 tons of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China on October 30th, the inventory has increased by 20500 tons.
The port inventory began to accumulate in October, rising from 350000 tons to 750000 tons, and began to decline in mid December.
Analysis of the reasons for the stabilization and rebound of ethylene glycol:
In mid to late December 2025, the price of ethylene glycol will stop falling, stabilize and rebound. The core lies in the resonance of five factors, including strengthened cost support, supply contraction and realization, low valuation attracting funds and emotional repair, combined with the recovery of macro and energy sector sentiment, which will drive the price to rebound at a low level and fluctuate regionally.
1. Cost side: Dual support of crude oil and coal
International oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded due to the favorable geopolitical situation and US economic data, driving up the bottom of the cost of producing ethylene glycol from oil and limiting the room for correction.
Coal prices stopped falling in late December due to the fulfillment of peak season demand and the completion of annual coal mine tasks. The cost support for coal to ethylene glycol production increased, and some loss making facilities entered maintenance or reduced losses.
2. Supply side: internal and external production reduction+import contraction, expected convergence of accumulated inventory
Low profits in China have forced plants to reduce or shut down: Since December, nearly 2-3 million tons of oil production plants have been shut down or shut down, and the domestic maintenance capacity has increased to 3.2 million tons per year (accounting for about 18% of the total capacity), with the operating rate falling back to the range of 61% -65%.
Supply contraction outside the mainland: the 720000 ton plant in Taiwan, China Province of China is planned to be shut down from January, and the monthly import to the mainland will be reduced by 40000 to 50000 tons; Part of Saudi Arabia’s facilities are undergoing maintenance/awaiting restart, and the import volume in January may drop below 60000 tons, easing the marginal pressure on the accumulated inventory.
3. Demand side: The decrease in polyester production is less than expected

The operating rate of polyester remains at a high level of 87% -88%, which stabilizes the demand for ethylene glycol; Although the terminal weaving has weakened, the expected improvement in orders and production margins supports the sustainability of high polyester production. The expected drop in downstream polyester load has fallen short of expectations.
4. Market and Funds: Undervaluation as Bottom Support+Emotional Restoration
After the price of ethylene glycol fell to a low level (briefly below 3600 yuan/ton in mid December), there were expectations of valuation recovery, and industrial buying and bottom fishing funds entered the market.
The overall risk appetite for commodities has rebounded (such as the strengthening of the metal sector), and the general rise in chemical products has driven the resonance of ethylene glycol sentiment.
5. Inventory and Expectations: The pressure has not dissipated but the marginal convergence has occurred
The high level of inventory in the main ports of East China has rebounded, and the rate of accumulated inventory has slowed down under the expectation of supply contraction. The pattern of accumulated inventory in January may slightly converge, and the marginal suppression force will weaken.