Review of Ethylene Glycol Price Trends in 2025
In 2025, the price of ethylene glycol first was strong and then weak
In 2025, the ethylene glycol market presented a pattern of “first strong and then weak, with a low-level rebound at the end of the year”. The ethylene glycol market in 2025 can be roughly divided into three stages: “high volatility at the beginning of the year, unilateral decline from the end of August, and first breaking a new low and then rebounding in December”.
By the end of 2025, the low level of ethylene glycol in ports stopped falling and rebound

The core logic of the price trend of ethylene glycol in 2025 is “dominated by oversupply, driven by cost and demand”. By the end of August, the supply and demand will be relatively balanced, and prices will fluctuate; After the end of August, the combination of increased supply and weak demand resulted in a continuous decline in prices; In December, due to equipment maintenance, cost recovery, and demand replenishment, prices rebounded at a low level, but the long-term pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and the sustainability of the rebound is still uncertain. The reasons for the segmented market trends of ethylene glycol in different stages throughout the year are as follows:
The core logic of the ethylene glycol market from January to August is “supply-demand balance+cost fluctuation driven”. From January to February, prices fluctuated upwards due to cost support and demand replenishment; Prices will decline from March to April due to the low demand season and increased supply; The policy sentiment and equipment maintenance in July and August drove price rebound, but oversupply and weak demand limited the increase, ultimately maintaining range fluctuations.
The core logic of the ethylene glycol market from the end of August to November in the second stage is “dominated by oversupply+driven by cost collapse and weak demand”. From the end of August to mid September, due to the concentrated deployment of new production capacity and a surge in imports, coupled with lower than expected demand during peak seasons, prices rapidly declined; From late September to October, the significant drop in crude oil prices led to cost collapse, coupled with a surge in port inventory, causing prices to continue to decline; In November, due to the continued pattern of oversupply and panic selling of funds, prices approached low levels.
The core logic of the December ethylene glycol market in the third stage is “driven by the resonance of supply contraction, cost rebound, and demand replenishment after all negative factors have been exhausted”. From December 1st to 22nd, due to the pressure of year-end capital inflows from enterprises, coupled with the fact that equipment maintenance has not yet been implemented and weak demand, prices hit a new low since 2021; From December 23rd to 31st, due to the large-scale maintenance of domestic facilities causing supply contraction, coupled with the rebound of crude oil driving cost recovery, the launch of polyester Spring Festival replenishment, and market sentiment recovery, prices rebounded at a low level.
2026 ethylene glycol price forecast

The core logic of the 2026 ethylene glycol market forecast is “continued loose supply+moderate demand growth+cost range oscillation driven, overall showing a pattern of weak first and then stable, with range fluctuations”. From a data perspective, the domestic ethylene glycol production capacity has reached 28.225 million tons by the end of 2024, and it is expected that the excess rate will remain at around 35% in 2026, indicating a continued pattern of loose supply. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in the first quarter, downstream polyester production is expected to decline to a low of 70% -75% for the year, while BASF’s 800000 ton new plant on the supply side is scheduled to start production at the beginning of the year. Under the imbalance between supply and demand, the pressure on accumulated inventory is expanding, and prices may remain at a low level of 3600-4000 yuan/ton; In the second quarter, with the promotion of downstream resumption of work and production, the marginal improvement of polyester demand, coupled with the planned increase of 5.55 million tons of polyester filament production capacity in 2026 (expected to drive demand for ethylene glycol by 1.8593 million tons per year), is gradually released. At the same time, PTA is in a vacuum period of production and maintenance is concentrated in the second quarter. The tight supply has driven the recovery of the industry chain sentiment, eased the pressure on inventory, and the price is expected to bottom out and rise to 4000-4300 yuan/ton; In the second half of the year, the pace of production capacity deployment on the supply side will slow down, and coal prices are expected to show a trend of initially low and then high. Multiple institutions predict that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 will fluctuate in the range of $56-65 per barrel, forming a stage of support on the cost side. The moderate growth of domestic and foreign demand in the terminal textile industry will drive the steady increase in demand for ethylene glycol, and the supply-demand pattern will tend to be balanced. The price is likely to remain fluctuating in the range of $4000-4400 per ton, and it is difficult to see a trend. Key variables such as the pace of new production capacity, fluctuations in crude oil and coal prices, changes in polyester operating rates, and the effectiveness of the industry’s “anti involution” policies need to be given special attention.
Forecast of core driving factors for each quarter of 2026:
Core driving factors for the first quarter (January March): 1 On the supply side, new production capacity will be put into centralized operation (such as BASF’s 800000 ton plant), and the average operating rates of coal to ethylene glycol and oil to ethylene glycol have been increased to medium to high levels of 61.95% and 64.25% respectively by 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, the operating rate of the plants may remain at 60% -65%, with limited supply reduction and continued loose supply pattern. 2. Demand side: The Spring Festival holiday has led to a decline in downstream polyester production to a low of 70% -75% for the year, and the weaving production rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is expected to drop to 55% -60%, resulting in weak demand for ethylene glycol; Historical data shows that the resumption of work after the holiday will last for 3-4 weeks. Although work will gradually resume in March, the expected monthly destocking amount is less than 50000 tons, and the destocking effect is limited. 3. Inventory and sentiment: By the end of 2025, the inventory of ports in East China had reached 680000 tons, and the supply-demand imbalance is expected to add 150000 to 200000 tons of accumulated inventory in the next quarter. The market continues the pessimistic sentiment at the end of 2025, further suppressing prices. 4. Cost side: Coal prices are relatively weak due to the flat seasonal demand after the end of winter heating. In terms of crude oil, institutions predict that the first quarter will be the stage of the most relaxed supply and demand in the oil market, and Brent crude oil may operate in the range of $55-60 per barrel, with weak cost support.

Core driving factors for Q2 (April June): 1 On the demand side, downstream polyester production has resumed comprehensively, and the operating rate has rebounded to a high level of 85% -90%; The terminal textile industry needs to gradually recover both internally and externally, with weaving start-up rates increasing to 70% -75%, driving marginal improvement in demand for ethylene glycol; At the same time, about 30% of the 5.55 million tons of new production capacity planned for polyester filament in 2026 is scheduled to be put into operation in the second quarter, which is expected to drive an increase in demand for ethylene glycol of 550000-600000 tons per year, further boosting demand. 2. Supply side: The pace of new production capacity has slowed down, and BASF’s facilities that were put into operation in the first quarter are gradually entering a stable operation period, with no other large-scale plans for new production capacity; At the same time, in 2025, most of the oil to ethylene glycol production will be in a loss making state, and some high cost units may enter the maintenance cycle due to previous losses. It is expected that the industry’s maintenance capacity in the second quarter will be about 2-2.5 million tons per year, and the supply pressure will be marginally relieved. 3. Industrial chain linkage: PTA is in a vacuum period of production. In the second quarter of Chinese Mainland, 7.2 million tons of PX devices are planned to be overhauled, and PTA devices in eastern China, southern China and other places are scheduled to be overhauled simultaneously. It is expected that the operating rate of PTA industry will drop to 70% -75%. The tight supply of PTA will drive the polyester industry chain to recover, indirectly boosting the demand for ethylene glycol. 4. Inventory side: With improved demand and supply contraction, the pressure of accumulated inventory has eased. It is expected to achieve a destocking of 100000 to 150000 tons in the second quarter and gradually shift towards destocking, which will support prices.
Core driving factors for the third quarter (July September): 1 On the cost side, coal prices have entered an upward phase of “initially low and then high”, driven by the peak electricity consumption in summer and the demand for heating and stocking in autumn, which has provided cost support for coal to ethylene glycol production; Crude oil prices may fluctuate due to geopolitical factors and the pace of global economic recovery. Institutions such as Citigroup predict that Brent crude oil may operate in the range of $60-65 per barrel in the third quarter, leading the cost trend of oil to ethylene glycol. 2. Demand side: The terminal textile industry has entered the seasonal peak season, with moderate growth in domestic and foreign demand. The weaving start-up rate remains at 75% -80%, and the demand for ethylene glycol is steadily increasing; The new downstream production capacity of polyester continues to be released, and it is expected that the proportion of new production capacity of polyester filament in the third quarter will reach 40%, driving an increase in demand for ethylene glycol of 750000 to 800000 tons per year, which is considerable. 3. Supply side: Under high cost, some inefficient coal production units (with production capacity exceeding 4000 yuan/ton accounting for about 15% of the total production capacity) may undergo load reduction/maintenance, with an expected maintenance capacity of about 1.8-2.2 million tons per year. There is an expectation of contraction in the supply side; The import volume is affected by the price difference between domestic and foreign markets. If the domestic price rises above 4200 yuan/ton, the import profit will narrow, and the import volume may show a phased reduction of 5% -8%. 4. Policy aspect: The implementation effect of the industry’s “anti internal competition” policy may gradually become apparent. If measures related to capacity control are introduced, it is expected to affect the total production capacity by 5% -10%, causing certain disturbances to market sentiment and supply side.

Core driving factors for the fourth quarter (October December): 1 On the demand side: The peak season in the textile industry has ended, and demand has entered a seasonal decline phase, with weaving start-up rates dropping to 65% -70%; Polyester enterprises are expected to reduce their demand for ethylene glycol by 80000 to 120000 tons per month in response to the year-end capital recovery, or to lower their operating rates to 80% -85%, reduce raw material stocking, and weaken demand for ethylene glycol. 2. Supply side: The annual production capacity deployment has been basically completed, and the planned new production capacity for 2026 is about 2.8 million tons. It is expected that all production will be completed by the end of the fourth quarter, and the supply pattern will tend to stabilize; In order to achieve the annual production target, enterprises may maintain a high operating rate of 65% -70% for their facilities, resulting in a slight increase in supply pressure. 3. Cost side: Coal prices may fall after fluctuating at a high level, and demand will weaken after the end of autumn heating stocking, with coal prices expected to fall by 5% -10%; There is uncertainty in crude oil prices due to the impact of global economic expectations at the end of the year. Goldman Sachs and other institutions predict that Brent crude oil may fall back to the range of $55-60 per barrel in the fourth quarter, weakening cost support. 4. Inventory and Funds: Under the pressure of fund recovery at the end of the year, traders may lower prices to sell inventory, coupled with weak demand. It is expected that there will be a cumulative inventory of 120000 to 180000 tons in the fourth quarter, which may trigger a temporary accumulation of inventory and suppress prices.