Review of Acrylic Acid Price Trends in 2025
1. Clear trend with no effective rebound throughout the year:
The price dropped from 8196 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year (January 1) to 5900 yuan/ton at the end of the year (December 17), with a cumulative decrease of 2308 yuan/ton. Each node in the chart is below its previous value, showing a clear downward trend, indicating consistent bearish expectations and sustained selling pressure in the market.
2. The decline is expanding quarter by quarter, and the bottom is accelerating in the second half of the year:
In the first half of the year (until June 25th), the price dropped from 8196 to 7009 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 14.5%. The decline is relatively flat.
In the second half of the year (after June 25th), the decline rate significantly accelerated, dropping from 7009 yuan/ton to 5900 yuan/ton, with the decline expanding to about 16%. Especially in the fourth quarter, the year-on-year price decline rapidly expanded from -10.22% to -22.41%, indicating extremely pessimistic market sentiment.
The market logic behind the trend
This trend is a direct manifestation and quantitative proof of the “oversupply” pressure mentioned in previous analysis:
Supply pressure becomes absolutely dominant: prices continue to fall without rebounding, indicating that the release of new production capacity is a sustained and overwhelming force that cannot be countered by any seasonal recovery on the demand side.
The industry has entered a cruel clearing stage: prices fall below the cost line and accelerate their bottoming out, which is a process in which the market forces the elimination of high cost production capacity through price measures and promotes the industry’s supply and demand to find a new balance. The accelerated decline in the chart is likely to be accompanied by some small and medium-sized enterprises reducing or ceasing production.
Summary: The most intuitive epitome of the acrylic acid industry’s shift from tight balance to comprehensive surplus in 2025. It confirms that the industry is undergoing intense supply side adjustments.
Total acrylic acid production capacity by 2025
As of the end of June 2025, the total domestic production capacity of acrylic acid has increased to 4.4 million tons. This is mainly due to the addition of 320000 tons of production capacity in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, it is expected that there will still be 740000 tons of planned new production capacity in the market.
Main new production capacity projects and distribution
The release of new production capacity in 2025 will be concentrated in several large enterprises, mainly distributed in the North and South China regions,
The core impact of acrylic acid import and export on the industry in 2025
Export side: Against the backdrop of China’s production capacity accounting for more than half of the world’s total and a sharp decline in domestic prices by 2025, exports are crucial for alleviating overcapacity. However, global market demand is also weak and facing competition from low-cost production capacity in regions such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia, resulting in a significant compression of export profit margins.
Import end: Although the total amount may be small, every ton of high-end acrylic acid imported (such as for photoresist and medical gel) means a high-value market for foreign investment. The import dependence of high-end products still exceeds 70%, which directly quantifies the urgency and potential space for domestic industrial upgrading.
Core direction of acrylic acid development in 2026
To overcome the current predicament, the industry must shift from pursuing scale to high-quality development. There are three specific breakthrough directions:

1. High end and “technology premium”
This is the core path to break out of low-level price wars and obtain excess profits.
At present, high-end products such as medical grade acrylic acid (purity ≥ 99.99%) can have a terminal price three times that of ordinary products, but only a few domestic enterprises can produce them. The industry is shifting from “scale competition” to “technology premium” competition. In the future, we need to focus on breakthroughs in cutting-edge fields such as electronic grade acrylic monomers (used for semiconductor photoresist) and bio based acrylic acid.
2. Green process and cost reduction
This is fundamental to enhancing cost competitiveness and achieving sustainable development.
Disruptive technologies such as “direct oxidation of propane to produce acrylic acid” have the advantages of short process, low investment, and low cost compared to traditional multi-step processes, and are important development directions for the future. For example, the billion dollar acrylic acid industrial park invested by Keyuan Holdings in Maoming, Guangdong has adopted this globally leading green technology.
3. Integration of industrial chain and ecological construction
This is the key for top enterprises to consolidate their advantages and enhance their ability to resist risks.
Leading enterprises can significantly reduce costs by integrating upstream and downstream layout. If satellite chemistry achieves a self-sufficiency rate of over 95% in raw materials, the cost per ton is 12% lower than the industry average. Top enterprises are building competitive barriers through “technological iteration+industry chain integration”, and industry concentration continues to increase. In the future, enterprises with full industry chain collaboration capabilities will be more competitive.
In summary, 2025 is a turning point for the acrylic acid industry to experience pain. The sharp decline in prices is a direct manifestation of the contradiction of overcapacity. Looking ahead to the future, the model of simply expanding production capacity has come to an end, and the industry’s way out lies in technological innovation and value enhancement. Enterprises that can successfully move towards “high-end”, master “green technology” and complete “industrial chain integration” will be able to overcome cycles and occupy a leading position in the next round of high-quality development.

Prediction of Acrylic Acid Price Trend in 2026
1. Annual price range:
It is expected that the mainstream market (East China premium products) prices will fluctuate within the range of 5800-7800 yuan/ton. Bottom (approximately 5800 yuan/ton): Hard support constructed by the industry average cash cost line. Once the price falls below this line, it will trigger more high cost production capacity shutdowns, thereby reducing supply.
Top (about 7800 yuan/ton): Strong resistance is formed by the suppression of excess production capacity. Any rebound will stimulate the release of existing production capacity, leading to weak price increases.
2. Seasonal trend:
First half of the year: expected to continue weak. The inertia of decline at the end of 2025, high inventory, and low demand season (especially in the field of architectural coatings) will work together, and prices may test or even briefly break through the cost line.
In the second half of the year, there may be a slight recovery rebound. The driving force may come from: supply contraction caused by the clearance of production capacity below the cost line, mild replenishment during the traditional “golden September and silver October” demand peak season, or unexpected strength in crude oil (propylene raw material) prices. But the rebound height and sustainability will be very limited.
3. Analysis of core influencing factors:
The primary disadvantage is that the contradiction between the total production capacity of up to 4.5 million tons by 2025 and sluggish demand is fundamental. Although the new production increase in 2026 may slow down, it will take time to digest the stock.
Export: is the key to alleviating excess pressure. If overseas demand recovers or the RMB exchange rate is favorable, an increase in exports will become the most important upward catalytic factor.
High end: The prices of ordinary acrylic acid and high-end specialty acrylic acid will continue to diverge. The prices of electronic grade products (which may remain at 15000-40000 yuan/ton) are completely decoupled from the trend of bulk commodities, depending on technological breakthroughs.
Summary: 2026 will be the “grinding year” for the acrylic acid bulk market to confirm the bottom and digest excess production capacity. The overall profitability of the industry will be at a historical low. However, this is also the year of value discovery for high-end products. Enterprises capable of producing high value-added specialty products will have their prices and profits completely independent of the industry’s downturn cycle. Therefore, when observing prices in 2026, it is necessary to distinguish between the two distinct curves of “commodity price index” and “specialty product price”.