In the fourth quarter of 2025, the domestic phenol market showed a significant downward trend, with prices continuing to fall from their high at the beginning of the quarter, hitting a new low for the year and even nearly five years. The industry is facing a dual dilemma of supply-demand imbalance and profit pressure. The current market downturn is the result of multiple negative factors such as supply-demand mismatch, weakened cost support, and industrial chain transmission, which have had a significant impact on phenol and the upstream and downstream industrial chains. According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, from the perspective of the East China market, the domestic phenol market price was 6912 yuan/ton on October 1st and 5845 yuan/ton on December 26th, a decrease of 15.44%.
From an annual comparison, the average annual price of phenol in 2025 is 6850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1064 yuan/ton compared to 7914 yuan/ton in 2024, a decrease of 13.44%. The significant decline in the fourth quarter has become the core factor driving down the annual average price. In terms of market transactions, due to the impact of low prices and weak demand, the enthusiasm of terminal enterprises to enter the market for inquiries is insufficient, and transactions continue to be sluggish. Most enterprises mainly rely on contract shipments, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market is quiet.
From a cost perspective, the core raw materials for phenol production are pure benzene and propylene. In the fourth quarter, the market prices of both materials weakened synchronously, resulting in insufficient cost support for phenol and further exacerbating the downward trend in prices. The pure benzene market has shown particularly weak performance, with a cumulative decline of over 8% from September to October. The sluggish pure benzene market is mainly due to the contradiction between the surge in import volume and insufficient downstream demand. The propylene market also showed a downward trend, with the monthly average price in Northeast and North China falling below 6000 yuan/ton, setting a new low for the year.
In terms of supply, the phenol industry will usher in a new round of capacity expansion in 2025. At the end of the third quarter, Jilin Petrochemical’s 350000 tons/year phenol ketone plant has been completed and put into operation. After entering the fourth quarter, the plant has stable output, directly increasing the total market supply. At the same time, the phenol ketone units of Mitsui Chemical and Shenghong Refining, which were previously shut down for maintenance, have been restarted one after another, and the industry’s operating rate has rebounded to a stable level of around 75%, further exacerbating the pattern of loose supply. In addition, the replenishment of imported phenol cargo in the East China region continued in the fourth quarter, with a total arrival volume of 49700 tons in December. Although port inventory has temporarily stabilized at 8500 tons, the expected arrival of in transit cargo in the future continues to put pressure on the market.
From the demand side, the overall sluggish market is the main reason for the market downturn. The core downstream of phenol is bisphenol A, which accounts for over 40% of its consumption. The downstream polycarbonate (PC) and epoxy resin industries of bisphenol A are facing sluggish demand in the fourth quarter. Among them, the PC industry has limited new orders, and enterprises mainly stock up on small orders for essential needs. The operating rate has decreased by 4 percentage points compared to September, and the procurement volume of bisphenol A has significantly decreased; The epoxy resin industry is affected by the adjustment of the new wind power policy, and onshore wind power no longer enjoys the preferential treatment of value-added tax collection and refund. The industry’s operating rate is only maintained at around 51%, further reducing the enthusiasm for raw material procurement. The weak demand in downstream industries has formed negative feedback, resulting in a lack of effective support on the demand side of the phenol market, and the downward pressure on prices continues to increase.

Business Society predicts that the domestic phenol market will continue to experience pressure and volatility in the short term, with limited upward potential for prices. From the supply side, there are plans to restart phenol ketone plants in Yangzhou and other areas, while the replenishment of overseas and domestic shipping will continue. There may be a slight increase in market supply, which will suppress prices. On the demand side, it is expected that the demand for bisphenol A in the core downstream will slightly decrease, while procurement in other downstream industries will still be mainly based on “cautious and essential needs”, with insufficient willingness to proactively stock up. In the short term, it is difficult for the demand side to form an effective boost. In the short term, the industry will still face pressure, and companies need to focus on inventory control and cost management; In the long run, the high-quality development of the industry relies on capacity optimization, technological upgrading, and steady recovery of downstream demand.