1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of May 31, the average price of the market quotation of organosilicon DMC in the mainstream areas of the data monitoring was around 15533 yuan / ton, which increased by 200 yuan / ton or 1% compared with that on May 1; compared with that before the labor day (April 26), the average price increased by 900 yuan / ton or 6.15%. The maximum amplitude of DMC was 6.15% from April 26 to May 31.

2、 Market analysis

Affected by the May Day holiday, downstream users actively entered the market to replenish goods before the festival, the market demand increased, the transaction atmosphere was good, the manufacturer shipped smoothly, most of the monomer factories increased the DMC factory price, the increase range was 200-500 yuan / ton. Until May 6, the market reference average price of organosilicon DMC had risen to 15330 yuan / ton. After the festival, the market demand weakened, the price rise was restrained, the manufacturer’s shipment was blocked, and the inventory gradually accumulated. Under the inventory pressure of some manufacturers, they were forced to reduce the factory price by 300-800 yuan / ton. On July 7, according to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of organosilicon DMC was around 14833 yuan / ton, the low-end price of some factories dropped to around 14200 yuan / ton, and the rare high-end price was around 15400 yuan / ton. In the following days, the market continued to decline until the 19th, as the price fell to a relatively low level, the downstream bargain hunting entered the market, the market transaction atmosphere improved, the manufacturer’s early inventory was basically digested, and the big single plant was eager to increase, through reducing the operating rate and other active regulation of the low price market, the price rose on the 20th, some manufacturers increased the ex factory quotation, and the range of adjustment was 100 -300 yuan / ton, followed by a week of stable operation. On the 29th, most monomer manufacturers raised the factory price of DMC again, with a large increase range. The average price rose to 15533 yuan / ton, the average price was adjusted around 500 yuan / ton, the rare low-end factory price was 15200 yuan / ton, and some high-end offers rose to 16000 yuan / ton.

It is understood that the following are the factory prices of major enterprises in the near future and the commencement of the plant (for reference only)

Name of enterprise date price (yuan / ton including tax) commencement of equipment

Normal operation of 15300 yuan / ton unit of Luxi Chemical on May 27

Zhejiang Xin’an Chemical Co., Ltd. normal operation of 15700 yuan / ton unit on May 29

Zhejiang Hesheng group normal operation of 15300 yuan / ton unit on May 27

Inner Mongolia hengyecheng has a maintenance plan of 15500 yuan / ton on May 27, June

Shandong Jinling group has a parking plan of 16000 yuan / ton on May 27 and June

Hubei Xingfa group May 27 – three sets of devices are in operation

Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Co., Ltd. has maintenance plan from May 27 to June

Shandong Dongyue Group has a parking plan from May 29 to June

Upstream metal silicon Market: the overall trend of upstream metal silicon in May was stable and slightly increased, which brought a certain positive support to the market of silicone DMC. In May, the price of silicon metal 441 was relatively stable, but there was still a dynamic stalemate between supply and demand. Supply side: silicon companies started less than expected, their inventory is lower than expected, and silicon companies are willing to hold up prices. Many start-up enterprises adopt the pre-sale mode to lock the production capacity in advance. Sales end: in May, the export market was weak, with a small amount of rigid procurement as the main demand; the downstream demand in the domestic market was relatively warmer, because of the doubt about the terminal demand and the short expectation of raw materials, the procurement of raw materials was cautious, mainly on demand, and the inventory of raw materials was low. 441 metal The price range of silicon is 11100-11200 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business club think that the rise at the end of May has brought a great deal of color to the DMC market in the whole may, and also laid a good start for the trend of the follow-up market. It is expected that the market of organosilicon DMC will continue to rise steadily in June.

1、 Trend analysis

On June 1, spot copper rose slightly, with a price of 44723.33 yuan / ton, up 1.26% from the previous trading day, down 8.79% from the beginning of the year, and down 3.92% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

In May, China’s manufacturing data expanded again. The current view on the expected recovery of the economy led the overall recovery of the market. At the same time, the market was worried that the outbreak of the epidemic in South America would promote the shortage of raw materials in the copper market and support the copper price. At present, the production of domestic enterprises has basically recovered, the overall demand level in May remains high, the copper inventory of the previous period has been accelerated for two consecutive weeks, and the inventory level has been lower than that of the same period last year. In May, the overall demand level remained high, and cable demand was the main driving force. Countries gradually restart their economies, and demand gradually changes. However, macro risks continue to exist, and mine end and scrap copper imports are also increasing.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, copper analysts of nonferrous branch of business society think that the recovery of demand and tight supply expectation support copper price, which is expected to have strong short-term volatility.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of NBR first rose and then fell in May, with the price at the beginning of the month at 13700 yuan / ton, and then rose to 14000 yuan / ton, the highest point of the month, and then fell to 13900 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a slight increase of 1.46% compared with the beginning of the month as a whole at the end of the month. On May 30, the NBR commodity index was 65.46, flat with yesterday, 47.07% lower than 123.67 (2017-02-20), the highest point in the cycle, and 26.81% higher than 51.62, the lowest point on March 8, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now).

The rise of raw material price supported the NBR. Butadiene prices fell first and then rose, with an overall increase of 7.56%; acrylonitrile prices rose sharply, with an overall increase of 17.19%. According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic butadiene price at the beginning of the month was 3890 yuan / ton, rising to 4345 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, falling to 4184 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 7.56% on the whole at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month; the factory price of domestic acrylonitrile Shanghai Secco was increased from 6400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7500 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 17.19% on the whole.

The supply of NBR in May was lower than that in April. At the end of April, Lanzhou Petrochemical Company shut down and overhauled its 50000t / a NBR plant, which lasted until the middle of May. The supply of some NBR brands decreased, and the inventory consumption led to the upward trend of NBR market to a certain extent. At the end of May, Lanhua had 15000 T / a nitrile plant shutdown for maintenance, but other units in the industry started normally, and the supply side increased at the end of the month. In addition, at the end of the month, the downstream mainly consumed the early-stage inventory, most of the transactions were small orders, and the demand for nitrile rubber was slightly negative.

Aftermarket forecast: business analysts believe that in the later stage, on the one hand, raw materials have rebounded to a certain extent, on the other hand, it is unlikely to rise sharply again on this basis. In addition, after the early preparation of goods in the downstream, the transaction in the later stage will be dominated by small orders. In a comprehensive view, the negative effect on NBR is obvious. It is predicted that if there is no other device to stop for maintenance in the later stage, the possibility of weakening vibration of NBR will be greater.

1、 Price trend

In May 2020, the “V” trend of domestic lead ingot Market, with the average price of 13975 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 144381 at the end of the month. 25 yuan / ton, up 2.91%.

On May 29, the lead commodity index was 87.52, down 0.23 points from yesterday, 34.69% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), and 17.27% higher than 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

In May, the futures market kept a wide swing trend, hovering between 1600-1700 US dollars, with mixed factors affecting fundamentals, positive and negative factors interwoven, and Lund lead was affected by inventory growth. Shanghai lead 07 contract fell back after hitting the high, and the main shock was between 13600-14500 in the month. As of 29, 14220 yuan / ton, up 5.33% in the month.

The overall trend of domestic spot lead market this month is good, with a monthly increase of about 300 yuan / ton. In the first ten days of this year, the spot lead market was mainly subject to shocks, with little price fluctuation. On December 12, the price of Lund lead was driven up by shocks in China. Later, it was dragged down by the metal market and entered the decline channel. The price of Lund lead fell down, and the price of Lund lead rose back. The domestic low-level supply of used batteries was tight, and the supply of recycled lead was tight, supporting the price of lead Fall and stabilize, and slowly enter the rising channel. In terms of supply, the production of enterprises is relatively stable, and the operating rate remains at a normal level. In terms of demand, the downstream lead-acid battery entered the traditional off-season in May, with some small and medium-sized enterprises reducing production and slightly reducing the demand for lead. In terms of renewable lead, Yunnan Guizhou and Jiangxi manufacturers started to improve, and waste batteries performed well, with a rise of about 200 yuan / ton this month. On the whole, the market fundamentals in May were mixed, with market shocks dominating.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there are 17 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the nonferrous sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 22.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities rising are silver (15.57%), dysprosium oxide (8.68%) and dysprosium ferroalloy (7.04%). There are five kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products are praseodymium oxide (- 3.28%), antimony (- 2.69%) and titanium concentrate (- 1.69%). This month’s average was up or down 2.6%.

The business club predicted that the favorable policy impact brought by the closing of the two sessions will further affect the metal market. On the 29th, some metal prices rebounded, and the commencement of various industries in China will gradually go on the right track. The overall market environment will still be good in the later stage, and the spot lead market will be affected by the soft demand in the downstream. In the near future, the fundamentals are good and bad. It is expected that the future market will be mainly integrated in the short term, with the overall market The market environment is good, the downstream production is gradually restored, and there is still room for the future market to rise.

Relevant data:

National Bureau of Statistics: in April 2020, China’s lead output was 489000 tons. According to the data from the National Bureau of statistics, China’s lead output in April 2020 was 489000 tons, with a cumulative output of 1683000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.60% and a cumulative decrease of 3.20%.

ILZSG: the global lead market oversupply fell in March: according to the data released by the international lead zinc research group (ILZSG) on May 20, the global lead market oversupplied 14200 tons in March and 16400 tons in February. From January to March this year, there was a total supply surplus of 19000 tons, compared with 13000 tons in the same period last year..

WBMs: from January to March 2020, the supply of lead in the world will be short of 170000 tons: according to the monthly report released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on May 20, the supply of lead in the world will be short of 17000 tons from January to March 2020, and the whole year 2019 will be short of 237000 tons. As of the end of March, the total inventory is 30000 tons less than that at the end of 2019. From January to March 2020, the global refined lead output will be 2.9 million tons, a decrease of 4% over the same period of last year. China’s apparent demand is expected to be 1.197 million tons, a decrease of 220000 tons compared with the same period last year, accounting for about 41% of the global total demand. From January to March, the apparent demand of the United States increased by 24000 tons year on year. In March 2020, the global refined lead production is 1030600 tons, and the demand is 1035800 tons.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide:

(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, the market of propylene oxide on May 28 was mainly stable, and some enterprises adjusted their quotations. On May 28, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 9266.67 yuan / ton, up 0.36% compared with yesterday and 11.20% compared with May 6. On August 28, Jinan Pratt & Whitney Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 9300 yuan / ton of propylene oxide, and Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 9300 yuan / ton of propylene oxide. The specific transaction price will be discussed in a single way.

On May 28, the market price of propylene in Shandong still fell. Last month, the price of propylene in Shandong Province rose sharply and fell sharply, and then it held steady again, and the market was stable. During the May 1st period, the price of propylene slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. On the 6th day, the price increased by 100 yuan / ton again. On the 7th, 8th and 9th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 10th day, some enterprises continued to increase by 50 yuan / ton. On the 11th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton again. On the 12th day, it increased by 100-200 yuan / ton obviously. On the 13th day, it continued to increase by 100-200 yuan / ton. On the 14th day, it increased by 50-100 yuan / ton again. On the 15th day, it still increased by 50-100 yuan / ton on weekends Until 22, the upward trend has been unchanged. The daily upward trend is 50-100 yuan / ton. On 22, it finally began to stabilize. The weekend price slightly declined. On 25, the propylene price fell again by 50-150 yuan / ton. On 26, the price still fell by about 100 yuan / ton. On 27, it fell by 100-150 yuan / ton. Today, it fell by about 100 yuan / ton. Now, the market transaction is between 6400-6750 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6500 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on May 27, 2020, there are 11 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are calcium carbide (7.75%), pure benzene (3.18%) and ethylene (3.16%). There are 11 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products were dichloromethane (- 4.17%), styrene (- 1.82%) and yellow phosphorus (- 1.78%). The average price of this day is 0.06%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the propylene oxide analysts of the business club, the price of raw material propylene has declined, and the transaction in the propylene oxide market has weakened. The downstream industry is cautious and has a strong wait-and-see mood, but the factory has no inventory pressure for the moment. It is expected that in the short term, the market of propylene oxide will be mainly stagnant, sorted and operated, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong began to fall after continuing to rise. As of May 27, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was about 2300 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, or 4.17% compared with the same period last week.

Commencement of plant capacity of the enterprise

440000 tons / year in Jinling, Shandong 80%

Dongying Jinmao 120000t / a parking

40 million tons / year 50% of Luxi Chemical

280000t / A, 50% in Dongyue, Shandong

The main reason for the downward trend of dichloromethane market in Shandong is the poor downstream demand. At present, most dichloromethane units in Shandong Province are in negative operation, the enterprise inventory is acceptable, and the spot supply is stable. At present, the quotation in Shandong Province is about 2200-2450 yuan / ton, that in Jiangxi Province is about 2400 yuan / ton, and that in East China is about 2100-2350 yuan / ton. The downstream purchase just needs to be soft, the buying atmosphere in the industry is weak, the market price of refrigerants has almost bottomed out, the enterprise has not started enough, the support for dichloromethane is not good, the manufacturers are reluctant to sell at a high price, but the terminal demand recovery is slow, the rising power is insufficient, and the current price is around 15500 yuan / ton; the purchase just needs to be weak in the solvent and pharmaceutical pesticide industry, and the support for dichloromethane is insufficient 。 The demand side is negative as a whole.

Secondly, the continuous downward market price of raw material methanol can not form an effective support for the dichloromethane market. At present, the methanol market is up and down, with the main trend of decline. The trade is not smooth, and the gas buying is weak. At present, about 1630 yuan / ton.

At present, the only positive information of dichloromethane market is that the performance of liquid chlorine market is relatively strong, and the start-up of liquid chlorine manufacturers in Shandong is not high, but the recent start-up of units in North China is gradually improving, and the market supply is expected to increase, which has a certain negative impact on the liquid chlorine market. At present, the market quotation is 600-800 yuan / ton.

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business agency, at present, the dichloromethane production enterprises in Shandong Province have started smoothly, the spot supply is acceptable, and the performance of the downstream demand side is sluggish, which leads to the light buying enterprises in the industry, which is expected to be stable, moderate and soft in a short period of time.

In the middle and late May, the domestic liquid ammonia market has been in a downward trend for two consecutive weeks. According to the monitoring of the business agency, since May, for example, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province has dropped by 5%, mainly due to the two-way attack of high inventory and weak demand. Under the pressure of manufacturers, the factory price has been repeatedly lowered, and the market offer has been continuously lower. The range is 200-400 yuan / ton, and the market offer is 2500-2700 yuan / ton near the end of the month.

Shandong and Hebei, the main producing areas, showed a significant decline. On the one hand, since March, affected by the peak season of spring ploughing, the demand for liquid ammonia in China has increased sharply. Compared with other chemical products, liquid ammonia has gone out of the independent upward market. At the same time, the factory’s operating rate also rose to a relatively high level. Until May, the market operating rate was still around 90%. However, with the end of the peak season, the market calms down and the downstream purchase shrinks, leading to the gradual accumulation of liquid ammonia by manufacturers. At present, the amount of ammonia in Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other regions has been high, so it is inevitable for enterprises to reduce price and inventory.

The increase in supply is on the one hand, and more importantly, downstream demand has declined significantly, which is currently in the off-season of fertilizer. In terms of compound fertilizer, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises this week is generally below 50%. Since April, the operating rate has dropped again and again, which is basically the same as last year. At the same time, in order to cope with the increase of ammonia quantity, some enterprises switched to urea production to relieve the pressure of high inventory, which further confirmed the weakness of the downstream and the decrease of the delivery speed of liquid ammonia.

In the future, the business community believes that at present, the supply pressure is still there, the peak season has passed, the demand is low, and the market may enter a relatively empty window period. However, with the limited production of the enterprise, the inventory will continue to be destocked, and the contradiction between supply and demand will gradually ease. It is expected that the price will still be under pressure in the short term. In the medium term, with the alleviation of the contradiction between supply and demand, the liquid ammonia market will return to temperature.

Last week, the acetone market was extremely high and cold, and the terminal did not keep pace with the market. After the middle of the week, the trend fell, and the price in East China fell to 7900 yuan / ton. However, in the opening of this week, the price in East China rose 200 yuan / ton again, and the main offer was 8100-8200 yuan / ton, and the supply in the hands of traders was scarce.

First of all, the manufacturer controls the quantity and the supply is tight. On May 9, Tianjin phenol ketone plant in Zhongsha was shut down for maintenance for 2 months, and then the factory controlled the delivery volume according to the plan. However, at the end of the week, there was a shortage of goods, so that the acetone market in surrounding areas of Yanshan kept a high price of 8500 yuan / ton. This week, Yangzhou Shiyou acetone Co., Ltd. in East China will stop its export. For a while, the supply news will be good. With 16500 tons of port inventory in East China, the traders’ offer has been greatly pushed up. Of course, the push up is also sustained by the surrounding areas, which increases the market demand for East China. Current offers in the mainstream market: 8100-8200 yuan / ton in East China, 8400-8500 yuan / ton in surrounding areas of Yanshan and Shandong. The offer of mainstream factories in East China is 8000 yuan / ton (Shanghai Gaoqiao, Sinopec Mitsui, etc.), 8300 yuan / ton (Yangzhou Shiyou), 8400 yuan / ton (Lihua yiweiyuan), and 8100 yuan / ton.

Second, the terminal demand, without exception, continues to improve. First, the market of bisphenol a rose sharply today. The market offer exceeded 10000 yuan per ton, and the overall market rose by 200-400 yuan per ton, while the factory started steadily. Second, the price of isopropanol continued to be high, with an overall price of 11500-12000 yuan / ton. The factory was fully loaded, and the overseas epidemic situation was still not improved. The demand for disinfectants continued to grow steadily. The production of isopropanol factory was stable, and the demand for raw acetone was large. Third, the downstream MMA remained at a high level, and the overall trading was good. The high price acetone market just needed to be purchased. Fourth, the downstream MIBK was shut down due to the surge in raw materials. However, today’s market also saw a substantial increase in offers. The increase in downstream demand is expected to drive more demand and the factory will resume work.

Third, the raw material market is running at a high level. In terms of pure benzene, this month, the pure benzene market has been showing a unilateral upward trend. The ex factory price of pure benzene in Shandong increased from 2960 yuan / ton to 3460 yuan / ton, with an overall upward trend of 16.89%. Up to now, the offer of pure benzene has been stable but at a high level. As of last Friday, propylene, another raw material, also showed a unilateral upward trend in this month. The ex factory price in Shandong increased from 5995 yuan / ton to 6979 yuan / ton, with an overall upward trend of 16.41%. Although propylene was explored in a narrow range at the beginning of this week, it was generally high.

In addition, phenol and ketone industry chain is the main actor with full market confidence. It can be seen from last week’s chemical industry list that the whole chemical industry is showing a trend of more growth and less decline. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 20th week of 2020 (5.18-5.22), there are 32 kinds of commodities in the chemical sector, including 5 kinds of commodities with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 5.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; there are 24 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month. Among them, the phenol and ketone industry chain in the chemical industry list has 5 rising commodities and 0 falling commodities. The phenol and ketone industry has increased or decreased by 1.62% in a week.

Near the end of the month, the manufacturer controls the shipment, the traders have less goods, the port supplies more isopropanol factories, the current market confidence is good, if the downstream MMA and MIBK can continue to improve, the acetone will maintain high-level operation in the short term, it is expected that the short-term acetone market will offer 8150-8300 yuan / ton, and the acetone market will close at a high level in May.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, cobalt market recovered in May, and the price of cobalt rose in shock. As of May 22, the price of cobalt was 253000 yuan / ton, up 5.20% compared with the average price of 240500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

2、 Market situation

Production of lithium battery rises

Date: monthly output (10000 units) cumulative output (10000 units) year on year growth (%) cumulative growth (%)

April 2020 142462.8 414949.8 16.2 – 5.4

March 2020 133436.5 271730.4 0.7 – 13.4

February 2020 – 142383.1 – 20.2

December 2019 162383.3 1572184.4 9.4 4

November 2019 142782.1 1397666.5 8.1 2.4

October 2019 144519.8 1228146.1 14 1.8

September 2019 147207.1 1082919.2 14.1 7.7

August 2019 134068.6 938469.8 7.8 6.5

July 2019 134881 831966 9.8 10

June 2019 126618.2 635721.4 7.2 6.9

May 2019 112631.1 504128.1 7.2 6.3

April 2019 106382.7 382262.8 8.1 6.1

March 2019 114331.5 276919.2 16.6 8.2

February 2019 – 169511.5 – 6.8

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, it can be seen that in 2020, the production of lithium batteries dropped sharply, and the demand of customers in the downstream industry chain of cobalt fell sharply. However, since March, the production of lithium batteries has risen slowly, which is good for the market of cobalt. In April, the production of lithium battery rose sharply, which was good for cobalt market. It is expected that with the gradual recovery of production, the output of lithium battery will rise steadily in May, which will benefit the future market demand.

3、 Future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business agency, believes that since April, the downstream production of domestic cobalt market has risen slowly, and the demand of cobalt market has recovered, but the stock of cobalt market is sufficient, and the driving force of cobalt price rise in April is insufficient. Since May, the stock consumption of domestic cobalt market has increased. At the same time, affected by the epidemic situation, international cobalt mining and transportation have been restricted, metal cobalt and cobalt import have been blocked, domestic metal cobalt stock has continued to fall, and with the gradual recovery of domestic production and life, the demand of cobalt market has risen slowly, the demand of domestic cobalt market has been limited, and the power of cobalt price rise is sufficient, but the international market cobalt price is slow Decline, the international market demand for cobalt fell sharply, and the decline in demand is far greater than the decline in supply, the overall global cobalt market rise risk is greater. On the whole, domestic cobalt Market in the future has upward momentum, and cobalt price is expected to rise slightly in shock. However, the weak performance of the international market cobalt market affects the domestic market, and there is limited room for the domestic cobalt price to rise.