1、 Market core performance:
After experiencing a crazy rally in March, the acrylic acid market finally pressed the “pause button” in early April, and even showed signs of “weakening”. As of April 8th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was reported at 13083.33 yuan/ton. Although this price is still in the historical high range, it has slightly decreased by 0.25% compared to the 13116.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
From the K-line chart, the originally lofty yellow price line is beginning to show a downward trend and a key technical signal – “bottoming out” – has emerged. The price line has fallen below the red 10 day moving average, which means that the short-term strong unilateral upward trend may be coming to an end, and the market has entered a period of volatile adjustment.
2、 Market core driving analysis
1. Supply side: The price of acrylic acid has continued to rise since March and is currently at a historical high. Production companies have sufficient profit margins and operating rates remain high, but some companies have maintenance plans. Coupled with the high price of raw material propylene, the cost side has formed strong support for the price, and there is no significant increase on the supply side, maintaining a tight balance overall.
2. Demand side: Downstream industries such as acrylic ester and high water absorbent resin (SAP) have average operating rates, and terminal demand has entered the traditional off-season. Downstream enterprises have insufficient acceptance of high prices and mainly focus on rigid procurement. The willingness to stock up is weak, and the demand side is unable to support further price increases, becoming the core pressure of market weakness.
3. Cost side: As the core raw material of acrylic acid, the price of propylene has remained high recently, and the production cost of acrylic acid remains high. The lack of willingness of enterprises to lower prices has formed a bottom support for market prices, limiting the space for price decline. As of April 8th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 9591.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.18% compared to the beginning of this month (8784.33 yuan/ton).
3、 In depth interpretation of the Business Society’s spot trading indicators:
Using the logic of the Business Society Spot Market Analysis System, conduct a comprehensive “physical examination” of the current market:
Location feature analysis: According to the system data from “overall high” to “short-term loosening”, the position rating of acrylic acid remains “high” (1 point) at 20 days, 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, and one year. This indicates that in the long term, prices are still in the absolute top region, with a very high risk coefficient.
Key change: The 10 day position rating suddenly changes to ‘low’. This is a very obvious short-term weak signal. Although the price is still at a high level, its short-term momentum has weakened and even experienced a correction.
Warning signal: Intensive “super rise” warning, with the bottom of the system indicating “1/07 below 10 days of super decline and 1 year of super rise”. “One year over growth” means that the current price (13083.33) is nearly 6000 yuan higher than the one-year average (7196.68), which means that the foam risk is huge. The “10 day oversold” and “downtrend” indicate that profit taking is fleeing in the short term, and the pressure of price correction is being released.

Trend characteristics: From “above” to “winding” or even “below”, the price had been running above all moving averages before, but on April 7-8, the price line fell below the 10 day moving average and is approaching the 20 day moving average (blue line). According to the system definition, the intersection of this short-term moving average and price line often indicates a trend shift from “unilateral upward trend” to “oscillating entanglement”. If the price continues to fall below the 20 day moving average, the downward trend will be officially established.
4、 Market forecast:
Short term trend (next 3-5 days): Due to the 10 day position becoming “low” while the long-term position remains “high”, the market is in an extremely contradictory state. In the short term, the price is likely to experience severe fluctuations within the range of 12800-13200 yuan/ton. Bulls try to hold onto high positions, while bears take the opportunity to suppress profit taking.
In summary, the acrylic acid market has maintained high volatility this week, with prices slightly weakening. The core theme of the supply-demand game is strong cost support, which limits the downward space; The weak demand side is suppressing upward momentum. Based on the indicators of the Business Society Spot Connect, the current market is in a contradictory state of “long-term super rise and short-term super fall”. The bullish trend of the moving average has not broken, but the momentum has declined. Short term oscillation and medium-term weakness are highly likely directions. It is recommended that market participants operate cautiously, mainly observing and waiting until the position score meets the standard before choosing an opportunity to layout.