1、 Market trend
In March 2026, driven by the geopolitical situation and various factors, the domestic market price unilaterally rose from 7000 yuan/ton to 14866.67 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 112.38%.
2、 Core influencing factors
Macro and cost aspects: resonance between raw materials and energy, resulting in rigid cost escalation
The mainstream process is the C4 component (n-butane/butene) oxidation method, which accounts for a relatively large proportion of raw material costs. In March, the upstream raw material prices skyrocketed, and the cost line moved up significantly, becoming the fundamental support for this round of market trend.
Firstly, due to the impact of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, international crude oil prices have risen significantly, driving the prices of naphtha and C4 components (liquefied petroleum gas, n-butane, butene) to rise synchronously. The raw material procurement costs of domestic enterprises continue to rise, directly pushing up the production cost center of products.
Due to the high cost of raw material procurement, some enterprises have experienced a situation of “production equals loss”, actively reducing their losses or suspending production, further reducing the effective supply in the market, forming a cycle of “cost increase → enterprise production reduction → supply tightening → price increase again”.
The significant increase in raw material prices has limited profit margins for enterprises, which can only passively raise factory prices to pass on costs. The cost increase is directly and quickly transmitted to the end market, becoming a “hard support” for sustained price increases.
Supply and demand side: supply contraction+demand release, amplifying the effect of cost increase
Supply side: Due to insufficient raw material supply and routine equipment maintenance, the overall operating rate of mainstream domestic facilities was relatively low in March, resulting in a decrease in the available supply of goods in the market. Due to the slowdown in import replenishment and the impact of the geopolitical situation, international logistics have also been affected, and overall import performance is average. Enterprises proactively destocked before the Spring Festival, and social inventory was already at a low level in early March; As costs rise and supply tightens, the market’s tension is further amplified.
On the demand side: resuming work during peak season and stocking up for rigid demand. Downstream industries such as coatings, inks, and adhesives have entered the traditional peak season, and resumed work and production in March, resulting in an increase in procurement volume. The stable release of rigid demand orders has provided certain support for prices.
3、 Future prospects
Macro and supply-demand direction forecasting
The fundamental driving force behind this round of price surge is the systematic increase in costs, while the contraction of the supply side, the concentrated release of demand, and the coordination of the macro environment have collectively amplified the effect of cost increases, ultimately forming a unilateral upward trend with a monthly increase of over 110%. The high-level operation of the cost side remains the core support for the subsequent market trend, but with fluctuations in raw material prices, supply recovery, and the end of the peak demand season, the market will gradually enter a stage of cost and supply-demand rebalancing.