1、 Market situation:
As of April 9th, the benchmark price of liquefied gas in Shengyi Society was reported at 6662.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.91% from yesterday. This wave of decline is not a natural return of market supply and demand. Stimulated by the news of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and the imminent resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. As a highly interconnected commodity, the main contract of liquefied gas futures plummeted by more than 13%, and the sentiment of the spot market collapsed instantly, causing prices to quickly fall from high levels.
2、 System diagnosis:
Using the logic of the Business Society’s spot commodity market analysis system, combined with the current geopolitical background, we will conduct a “physical examination” of the market. According to system data, the position rating of liquefied gas remains consistently “high” (1 point) for 10 days, 20 days, 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, and one year.
This indicates that despite the price decline, in the long term, the current price is still in the historical peak area and has not fallen back to the “safe zone”. At the bottom of the system, there is a prompt saying ’1-year super high’. Although the price has fallen slightly, it is still nearly 2000 yuan higher than the one-year average. It is worth noting that the one-day decline reached 0.91% on April 8, and the futures end plummeted, indicating that the market is undergoing a drastic process of “de foam”.
From the K-line chart, although the yellow colored price line is still above all moving averages (10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 60 day), it indicates that the long-term upward trend has not been completely disrupted. However, the slope of the price line has clearly flattened or even hooked downwards, and the divergence from the moving average is rapidly recovering. If the price continues to decline in the next few days, once it falls below the 10 day moving average, it will confirm the formation of a short-term downward trend.
3、 Long Short Game: The Duel between Emotional Collapse and Cost Hardship
The technical aspect of the business society system shows “high-level pressure”, while the fundamental aspects of geopolitics are even more complex. The ceasefire between the United States and Iran is the core driving force behind this round of decline. The “premium” that was previously pushed up due to the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz is rapidly selling back, and market sentiment is extremely pessimistic. However, in April, the official price of CP in Saudi Arabia was significantly raised, and the landed price of propane remained at a high level of over 1100 US dollars/ton. The high import cost has sealed off the deep space for spot price decline. At the same time, the domestic refinery commodity volume remains at a low level of around 516000 tons, port inventory has decreased, and supply remains tight.
4、 Market forecast:
The high-level warning of the comprehensive business social system and the drastic reversal of the geopolitical situation have put the liquefied gas market in a fierce game of “emotional decline” and “cost support”. In the short term, due to the panic caused by the sharp decline in futures prices, spot prices are likely to continue their downward trend and further approach the 10 day moving average. However, considering the high import costs and the hard support of tight domestic supply, the possibility of a price collapse is relatively small, and the space below is limited.
In summary, the next two weeks are a critical window period. If the US Iran negotiations fail to reach a substantive agreement and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz cannot return to near normal levels, the geopolitical risk premium may resurface at any time, and liquefied gas prices will face a retaliatory rebound; If the ceasefire progresses smoothly and the oil price center gradually shifts downwards, the spot price of liquefied gas will also face continuous downward pressure.