According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, lithium carbonate has shown a fluctuating trend in recent times. As of April 14th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 159000 yuan/ton, up 1.27% month on month and 124% year-on-year. Under the interweaving of multiple factors such as mining disturbances and changes in supply and demand, the market maintains a volatile consolidation trend, and short-term uncertainty remains prominent.
Mining disturbance: limited impact of domestic certificate replacement, uncertainty in overseas policies still exists
Domestically, the Department of Natural Resources of Jiangxi Province recently released an evaluation report on the revenue from the transfer of mining rights for four lithium mines in Yichun, which has attracted market attention to the local lithium mine supply. The four mines announced this time are Tong’an Porcelain Mine in Tong’an Township, Yifeng County, Dagang Porcelain Clay Mine in Huaqiao Township, Yifeng County, Baishihua Mountain Porcelain Stone Mine in Huaqiao Township, Yifeng County, and Dingxing Porcelain Stone Mine in Dongcao Village, Yifeng County. These four mines involve entities such as Yongxing Materials, Keliyuan, and Jiuling Lithium Industry, accounting for nearly 30% of the country’s lithium mica production capacity, equivalent to a reduction of over 50000 tons in annual supply of lithium carbonate.
Overseas, Zimbabwe has made progress in lifting the ban on lithium ore exports. Recently, the Zimbabwean government has clarified a package of prerequisites for lifting the ban on lithium ore exports in the form of a letter from the Minister of Mines, including written commitments from companies to build local beneficiation facilities, complete lithium sulfate processing plants by January 1, 2027, ensure full repatriation of export earnings, allocate export quotas, impose a 10% concentrate export tax, and require companies to submit monthly progress reports. On April 13th, market news reported that Zimbabwe has approved a six-month lithium concentrate export quota for Chinese enterprises, with Huayou, Zhongkuang, Yahua, and Shengxin each holding 200000 tons. The quota will be renewed after the six-month period expires, and export license applications will be submitted starting today. It is expected that exports will resume soon.
Fundamental: Supply and demand increase combined with inventory accumulation, price upward is hindered
From the supply side, domestic lithium carbonate production has gradually rebounded since April. With the resumption of production of previously repaired salt factories, the pace of domestic capacity release has accelerated. At the same time, the export volume of Chilean lithium carbonate overseas has grown significantly, becoming an important force to supplement domestic supply.
The overall resilience of the demand side is maintained, showing a steady upward trend. Despite the weak sales data of electric vehicles due to seasonality and subsidy reduction, there has been a significant increase in terminal electrification; At the same time, the energy storage industry is expected to be optimistic, with leading companies maintaining full production. With the end of the holiday effect in March, demand has rebounded significantly month on month. Structurally speaking, the demand for lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase significantly month on month, while the demand for ternary lithium is relatively weak. In the future, it is necessary to focus on changes in the structure of power terminals and export expectations.
Overall, the core logic of the current lithium carbonate market is that supply disturbances dominate price expectations. The export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile may still remain high, coupled with the gradual clarification of Zimbabwe’s export policy. Market concerns about short-term supply shortages have significantly eased, and the fundamentals of lithium carbonate have weakened in the short term. However, demand is strong, and it is expected to fluctuate in the future. Specific attention still needs to be paid to the progress of Yichun lithium mine license renewal, the implementation of Zimbabwe’s export quota, the pace of domestic salt factory resumption, and downstream demand changes.